- Crude Oil
WTI crude oil futures rose to around $61.8 per barrel (0.18% rise in WTI and 0.34% rise in Brent) on Tuesday after President Donald Trump hinted at another tariff exemption.
On Monday, Trump said he is considering temporary relief from the 25% tariffs on the auto industry to give carmakers time to adjust their supply chains. This followed his recent announcement of temporary exemptions for certain tech products from reciprocal tariffs.
Moreover, data released on Monday indicated a sharp increase in Chinese crude oil imports in March, rising nearly 5% year-on-year. The rise was backed by a surge in Iranian oil imports as the country braces for stricter sanctions from the US.
However, gains may be limited after OPEC+ cut its demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing slower first-quarter trends and fresh U.S. trade tariffs.
The group now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and 1.28 million bpd in 2026, down from earlier estimates of 1.45 million and 1.43 million bpd, respectively. On the charts, both WTI and Brent trade below the 9-EMA level on the daily chart.
WTI traded 0.56% higher on Tuesday, with potential support around the $60.65 level, while potential resistance could be found around the $63.42 level. Brent traded 0.73% higher on Tuesday, with potential support near the $63.63 level, while potential resistance could be found near the $65.75 level.
Meanwhile, nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran last Saturday, which both sides described as constructive, raised the prospect of increased oil exports from Iran.
- Gold
Trump’s tariff policies have resulted in heightened uncertainty, undermining the usual safe haven appeal of both U.S. treasuries and the dollar. Despite the recent 90-day tariff pause followed by the weekend announcement of exemptions on consumer electronics and semiconductors, separate sector-specific duties on these products are expected soon. Moreover, there remains a risk of trade wars with key partners, particularly China – which has kept the markets on edge. The subsequent flight to safety has supported gold, which has risen by more than a fifth this year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated the inflationary impact of tariffs could likely be transitory – which means interest rate cuts are very much on the cards. This, in addition to healthy central bank purchases and ETF inflows, are driving gold higher. Price forecasts were recently revised higher to around $3,700 by the year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026. At present, gold is up 0.46% at $3,226.13, just within reach of its all-time high of over $3,245. It has support at $3,160 with the next 9-SMA support at $3,116 on the day chart.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 389.50
22 Carat – AED 360.50
21 Carat – AED 345.75
18 Carat – AED 296.25
- US Markets
The S&P 500 closed in the green on Monday, buoyed by the tech sector. Apple Inc. led the gains for megacaps, while carmakers rallied as Trump floated exceptions for auto parts facing 25% US levies.
Moreover, the US pressed ahead with plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by initiating trade probes led by the Commerce Department. The move threatens to broaden the president’s aggressive trade war, causing uncertainty in the market.
Today, investors await earnings from Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson and PNC Financial, which are set to report earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell.
On the technical front, the index is trading above 9 SMA on the daily chart with a death cross formation of 50 DMA crossing below 200 DMA, signaling some potential downside. Support is seen at $5,376, and resistance is at the $5,459 level, which coincides with the 70.8% fib retracement on the 1-hour chart.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar recovered modestly, increasing by 0.18% after President Trump announced on Monday that he is considering short-term exemptions to his proposed 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicle imports. This follows earlier announcements of exemptions for smartphones and other electronics. Despite the brief rebound, the dollar remains under pressure due to persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Recent weeks have seen the greenback decline as investors reacted to unpredictable tariff announcements and suspensions, which have undermined confidence in the U.S. currency.
On the daily chart, DXY is trading below the 9-day SMA at 99.794, and it is expected to see resistance at 100.734 and support at 98.922.
