- Crude Oil
WTI rose slightly by 0.1% and is currently trading at $62.2.
From a fundamental standpoint, the US and China agreed on a much-anticipated trade agreement. According to the deal, the US and China agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. China will cut tariffs on the US to 10% from 125% for 90 days. The US will lower tariffs on China to 30% from 145% (10% base rate + 20% reciprocal tariffs), effective from May 14. According to the commodities research firm, GSC Commodity Intelligence, the US-China trade agreement paves the way for an asymmetrical trade setup, as in the past months, recession fears have dragged down oil; however, now that the macro has flipped – the market hasn’t caught up yet, hence, WTI could see a $10-$15 per barrel repricing over the coming weeks.
From a technical standpoint, the commodity is forming a cup and handle formation on the 4-hour chart, with the $63.7 price mark as the neckline. Currently, it has support at the $61.8 price mark. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 9- and 21-period EMAs are in an uptrend. A bullish crossover between the 21- and 50-period EMAs can also be observed.
GoldGold was down 1.1% yesterday, driven by optimism around the US-China trade deal. Improved risk sentiment following the announcement of a temporary deal between the United States and China to reduce tariffs dragged the safe-haven asset’s price lower. Additionally, Reuters reported on Tuesday that the US will cut “de minimis” tariffs on China shipments from 120% to 54%, with a minimum flat fee of $100 to remain.
Today, however, gold is up in the morning session as traders brace for uncertainty around the US CPI data slated to be released before the market opens. It is expected that the year-on-year core CPI will rise 2.8%, while the year-on-year headline CPI would increase 2.4% for the month of April.
On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, shortly after Trump urged him to “immediately” accept the Russian leader’s offer to hold peace talks in Turkey. Any signs of escalating tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal.
On the daily chart, gold is trading below the 9 SMA and has resistance at $3,300. Above this level, the next resistance is at $3,346. Gold has support at the $3,200 level, followed by $3,167, the high of April 3, on the 4-hour chart.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 392.00
22 Carat – AED 362.75
21 Carat – AED 348.00
18 Carat – AED 298.25
