- Crude Oil
WTI oil prices rose after exhibiting a double bottom pattern on the daily and weekly charts, closing the last week with a 2.05% gain. Although the start of the week showcased a strong performance, prices tested a resistance near the $63.5 level, where the 50-EMA also lay, and dipped to test the $60 level on the daily chart. Friday’s session saw a 1.11% gain in WTI, after finding support from the 9 and 21-EMAs on the daily chart. Prices in Monday’s Asian session stood 0.40% lower, after the 4-hour chart showed a rejection from a resistance near the $62 mark, coinciding with the 200-EMA. A breach of this level could see prices increase to test the $63.40 levels, while a break below the $61 level could see prices touch $60. Brent oil exhibits a similar 0.40% price drop today, with a break under $64.10 potentially leading prices to touch $63.20 levels, while a move above $65.12 could cause prices to touch $66.10.
- Gold
Gold started the year off on a solid footing at around $2,624.50 after rallying nearly 27% in 2024. The momentum gained steam this year, as gold exhibited a relentless rally, creating a series of record highs amid a global flight to safety. By April 22, it had risen to a peak of over $3,500 – rallying more than 875 points or around 34% in less than 4 months. However, the emergence of trade deals has since triggered a drop, with gold currently trading 8.4% below its peak at $3,223. The precious metal was exhibiting a double top pattern on the day chart, which is typically indicative of bearish forces. However, the neckline breakdown failed due to the presence of 50-SMA support at $3,168. Moreover, gold is trading close to the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. A breakout on the upside could pave the way for further rallies, with the first target at $3,272 – a level characterized by the lows created multiple times in April and on May 9 as well. Despite the recent dip, strong central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and healthy appetite amongst Chinese buyers is keeping gold well-supported, with its year-to-date gains at around 20%. Recently, Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 – which could spark another wave of diversification away from dollar-denominated assets like bonds towards more safer instruments like gold.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 387.75
22 Carat – AED 359.25
21 Carat – AED 344.50
18 Carat – AED 295.25
Global MarketsUS Markets
On the daily chart, the SPX 500 has experienced an upward trend over the past five trading sessions; however, on Friday, after reaching a high of $5960.7, the candlestick indicated a bearish sentiment that prevailed towards the closing, resulting in a final closing price of $5931. Today, it has opened lower at $5915.2, facing considerable downward pressure with support at $5873.5. It is trading 0.65% lower at $5892 yet remains above the 200-day moving average of $5783.7.
Within a four-hour timeframe, the asset broke out of resistance at $5849.7. It subsequently retested these levels once before reaching a high of $ 5,960.7. The asset may now test the trendline support at $5884. The 4-hour RSI also trended downward towards 50 after touching the oversold level of 70, indicating a loss of momentum. Currently, the price is below the 9-day and 21-day simple moving averages of $5901 and $ 5,917, respectively.
In terms of options for the May 19 expiry, the highest open interest for call contracts is recorded at a strike price of $6000, comprising a total of 9,607 contracts. Conversely, the highest number of open interest contracts, which stands at 7318, is observed at a strike price of $5800. These values indicate the presence of potential resistance and support at the levels of $6000 and $5800, respectively.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the reduction of the United States’ longstanding Moody’s triple-A credit rating to Aa1 overshadowed the prevailing optimism regarding US-China trade agreements last week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experienced declines of 0.82% and 0.65%, respectively, indicating a negative sentiment among investors.
US Dollar Index
On the 4-hour chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recently broke out of a rounding bottom pattern, with the neckline established around the 100.4 level. After the breakout, the index climbed higher but is now retracing, currently trading at 100.652. This level coincides with the neckline support visible on the 4H chart, suggesting a critical juncture. The DXY had slipped notably against the yen, down 0.6% to 144.80, following Moody’s downgrade of the US long-term issuer rating, citing sustained fiscal imbalances and rising interest payments. Weak US economic data last week further fueled dovish Fed expectations, with markets now pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts this year. If the index bounces off the neckline support level, it may confirm the bullish reversal implied by the rounding bottom. However, a clean break below 100.4 could invalidate the pattern and turn the outlook bearish.
Crude Oil
WTI oil prices rose after exhibiting a double bottom pattern on the daily and weekly charts, closing the last week with a 2.05% gain. Although the start of the week showcased a strong performance, prices tested a resistance near the $63.5 level, where the 50-EMA also lay, and dipped to test the $60 level on the daily chart. Friday’s session saw a 1.11% gain in WTI, after finding support from the 9 and 21-EMAs on the daily chart. Prices in Monday’s Asian session stood 0.40% lower, after the 4-hour chart showed a rejection from a resistance near the $62 mark, coinciding with the 200-EMA. A breach of this level could see prices increase to test the $63.40 levels, while a break below the $61 level could see prices touch $60. Brent oil exhibits a similar 0.40% price drop today, with a break under $64.10 potentially leading prices to touch $63.20 levels, while a move above $65.12 could cause prices to touch $66.10.
Gold
Gold started the year off on a solid footing at around $2,624.50 after rallying nearly 27% in 2024. The momentum gained steam this year, as gold exhibited a relentless rally, creating a series of record highs amid a global flight to safety. By April 22, it had risen to a peak of over $3,500 – rallying more than 875 points or around 34% in less than 4 months. However, the emergence of trade deals has since triggered a drop, with gold currently trading 8.4% below its peak at $3,223. The precious metal was exhibiting a double top pattern on the day chart, which is typically indicative of bearish forces. However, the neckline breakdown failed due to the presence of 50-SMA support at $3,168. Moreover, gold is trading close to the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. A breakout on the upside could pave the way for further rallies, with the first target at $3,272 – a level characterized by the lows created multiple times in April and on May 9 as well. Despite the recent dip, strong central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and healthy appetite amongst Chinese buyers is keeping gold well-supported, with its year-to-date gains at around 20%. Recently, Moody’s Ratings downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, which could spark another wave of diversification away from dollar-denominated assets like bonds towards safer instruments like gold.
