- Crude Oil
Crude prices extended Friday’s surge in early Monday trade but failed to hold higher levels, with WTI retreating to $71.56 and Brent easing to $73.25 after jumping over 13% intraday on Friday.
The rally, driven by escalating Israel-Iran tensions, briefly pushed prices to multi-month highs before profit-taking and cooling momentum pulled them back toward last week’s close. Fresh weekend airstrikes and rising civilian casualties have heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, with both sides issuing evacuation warnings. Markets remain on edge over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for nearly 20% of global oil flows. A prolonged standoff could sharply lift prices, especially if Iran’s 2+ million bpd in oil exports are curtailed. While geopolitical risk premiums remain high, markets are cautiously hopeful that key oil-producing and exporting infrastructure in Iran will remain untouched, limiting the risk of direct supply disruptions. The situation remains fluid, and traders are closely watching for signs of further escalation or diplomatic intervention.
Technically, WTI holds a bullish structure following last week’s breakout. Key support lies at $69.80 and $67.70, while resistance is seen at $74.70 and $77.90. The daily RSI has climbed to 76, signaling that WTI crude is firmly in overbought territory. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not escalate further, prices may cool off, with WTI potentially stabilizing below the $70 mark in the near term.
- Gold
Mounting tensions between Israel and Iran have sparked a global flight to safety, driving gold prices above $3,400 an ounce. Gold had slipped to a low of $3,120 by mid-May, testing the 50-day moving average, as tariff fears eased amid ongoing trade negotiations. Since then, it has climbed over 8.5% and is less than $100 away from reclaiming its record high of $3,500. Ongoing Mideast tensions have sparked an uptick in energy prices, driving inflation expectations higher. This has tempered the usual safe-haven appeal of treasuries, enhancing gold’s allure further. The precious metal has advanced over 30% year-to-date, supported by haven flows and central bank purchases.
Gold is down 0.46% for the day at $3,416. After climbing nearly 4% last week, the rally appears to have slowed at the super-trend resistance on the day chart located at $3,446 until the next catalyst emerges, either in the form of further escalation in geopolitical tensions or policy direction from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Monday’s retreat from a two-month high of $3,500 could find initial support at $3,400, characterised by the highs created in early June. A Fibonacci retracement connecting 22nd April’s all-time peak of $3,500 with 15th May’s low of $3,120 indicates support at the 61.8% Fib retracement level of $3,356. Sustained moves above $3,400 could fuel an advance towards $3,500.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 413.00
22 Carat – AED 382.75
21 Carat – AED 367.00
18 Carat – AED 314.50
US MarketsThe SPX Index and the Nasdaq-100 Index are up today by over 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, and are currently trading at $6,006 and $21,740, respectively.
On the fundamental front, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about rising inflation to over 5% amid the increase in oil prices to about $130 per barrel, the US Equity markets are trading higher, indicating that the broader market is pricing in a peace deal rather than a longer escalation.
On the technical front, the SPX index bounced back after hitting the support at the $5,925 price mark in the 4-hour timeframe. Currently, on the 4-hour timeframe, the index is testing the trendline resistance connecting the highs of $6,067 on 11 June, $6,044 on 12 June, and $6,023 on 13 June; a break over $6,022 could target more upside towards the $6,070 and $6,095 price mark. Conversely, a failed break could trigger the bearish move towards the $5,950 price mark, followed by $5,920.
Crude Oil
Crude prices extended Friday’s surge in early Monday trade but failed to hold higher levels, with WTI retreating to $71.56 and Brent easing to $73.25 after jumping over 13% intraday on Friday.
The rally, driven by escalating Israel-Iran tensions, briefly pushed prices to multi-month highs before profit-taking and cooling momentum pulled them back toward last week’s close. Fresh weekend airstrikes and rising civilian casualties have heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, with both sides issuing evacuation warnings. Markets remain on edge over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for nearly 20% of global oil flows. A prolonged standoff could sharply lift prices, especially if Iran’s 2+ million bpd in oil exports are curtailed. While geopolitical risk premiums remain high, markets are cautiously hopeful that key oil-producing and exporting infrastructure in Iran will remain untouched, limiting the risk of direct supply disruptions. The situation remains fluid, and traders are closely watching for signs of further escalation or diplomatic intervention.
Technically, WTI holds a bullish structure following last week’s breakout. Key support lies at $69.80 and $67.70, while resistance is seen at $74.70 and $77.90. The daily RSI has climbed to 76, signaling that WTI crude is firmly in overbought territory. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not escalate further, prices may cool off, with WTI potentially stabilizing below the $70 mark in the near term.
Gold
Mounting tensions between Israel and Iran have sparked a global flight to safety, driving gold prices above $3,400 an ounce. Gold had slipped to a low of $3,120 by mid-May, testing the 50-day moving average, as tariff fears eased amid ongoing trade negotiations. Since then, it has climbed over 8.5% and is less than $100 away from reclaiming its record high of $3,500. Ongoing Mideast tensions have sparked an uptick in energy prices, driving inflation expectations higher. This has tempered the usual safe-haven appeal of treasuries, enhancing gold’s allure further. The precious metal has advanced over 30% year-to-date, supported by haven flows and central bank purchases.
Gold is down 0.46% for the day at $3,416. After climbing nearly 4% last week, the rally appears to have slowed at the super-trend resistance on the day chart located at $3,446 until the next catalyst emerges, either in the form of further escalation in geopolitical tensions or policy direction from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Monday’s retreat from a two-month high of $3,500 could find initial support at $3,400, characterised by the highs created in early June. A Fibonacci retracement connecting 22nd April’s all-time peak of $3,500 with 15th May’s low of $3,120 indicates support at the 61.8% Fib retracement level of $3,356. Sustained moves above $3,400 could fuel an advance towards $3,500.
US Dollar
The dollar index rose 0.31% on Friday, rebounding from a multi-year low as escalating tensions between Iran and Israel drove safe-haven demand for the greenback against its G10 peers. The index held firm in early Asian trading on Monday as tensions persisted, with the greenback rising against most G-10 peers. Support also came from higher oil prices, as the US is a net energy exporter. However, domestic uncertainties, such as erratic US policymaking, remain a headwind for the greenback, potentially capping upside momentum.
On the daily chart, the dollar is trading below the 9 SMA of 98.57. On the one-hour chart, resistance is seen at 98.12, which coincides with the 50 SMA, followed by the 98.20 level, which is the key breakout area. The dollar has broken down from the upward short-term trendline, and hence, a move above 98.35 would renew stronger bullish momentum. Support is seen at 97.90, which is the 70.8% Fibonacci level. A break below this mark could send prices to the 97.82 mark, below which the multi-year low of 97.62 could be tested.
