- Gold
Despite recent losses from risk-off sentiment unwinding, gold has rebounded strongly after testing and bouncing off the long-term bullish trendline. Today, gold prices have surged by 1%, reaching around $3,336 per ounce. This rise is fueled by the dollar’s retreat, driven by concerns over the expanding US government deficit and the progress of a massive tax-cutting and spending bill in the Senate.
Adding to gold’s safe-haven appeal is the uncertainty surrounding trade deals with major countries, including President Trump’s fresh tariff threats on Japan. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates later this year, gold is set to attract even more attention in the coming weeks.
Investors are eagerly awaiting key US labor market reports this week, including Thursday’s non-farm payrolls data, which could provide more clues on the Fed’s policy path. Today’s release of several important data points, such as the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, will also be closely watched.
On the 4-hour chart, gold has broken above the descending channel resistance, setting its sights on the Bollinger Band’s upper boundary at $3,350, which aligns with the 100-day SMA level. A successful break above this level could provide the momentum needed for gold to test the $3,377 mark, a previous support turned resistance from mid-May. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological level of $3,300, followed by $3,275, which served as a support level during Friday’s and Monday’s sessions.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 400.25
22 Carat – AED 370.75
21 Carat – AED 355.50
18 Carat – AED 304.75
- Crude Oil
WTI rose by 0.4% today and is currently trading at $66.14.
From a fundamental stance, the OPEC+ production hike in the July meeting continues to place pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ plans to raise output by 411K bpd in August, pushing total 2025 additions to 1.78M bpd—over 1.5% of global oil demand.
From a technical stance, WTI continues to trade close to the support at the $64.7-$65.4 price mark, as mentioned yesterday. Furthermore, it is the fifth day where crude oil has been rangebound between the $ 65.40-$67.14 price mark. A break above the $67.14 price mark brings an upside; in contrast, a bearish trend ensues if the $65.4 price level is broken. On the 4H chart, a strong bullish divergence can be observed. When the price was low at $65.18 on June 24th, the RSI was at 25.8. Currently, the price is at $66, while the RSI is at 40, supporting a bullish bias for the day. Finally, it is worth noting that a doji candle was printed yesterday; as this doji candle occurs after a series of consolidations in a downtrend, a bullish reversal is highly anticipated.
- Global Markets
U.S. Markets – The second quarter ended on a solid note as American equities weathered tariff uncertainties with ease. The S&P 500 recorded its best quarterly performance since December 2023, while Nasdaq experienced its most significant quarterly gain since 2020, driven by strong corporate earnings and economic data. Trade deals with key partners are on the horizon, resulting in an upbeat sentiment. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats have raised objections to certain aspects of Trump’s tax package, prompting Senate Republicans to make amendments to overcome internal divisions. Trade deals are expected to dominate headlines as the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9.
The S&P 500 is up 0.03% for the day at $6,198, just a few points below its all-time high of $6,215.08 recorded on the final trading day of June. Sustained moves above this level could target $6,250, with the next psychological resistance around $6,300. The index has immediate support at $6,148, characterized by the previous record high achieved on February 19. The next support is around $6,126, marked by the January highs, followed by the 9-SMA support at $6,090 on the day chart.
Dollar Index – The US Dollar Index fell to around 96.7 on Tuesday, marking its lowest level since February 2022. The decline comes amid heightened market focus on the Senate’s progress regarding President Trump’s expansive tax-cut and spending package, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. Simultaneously, investors are watching for updates on U.S. trade negotiations, with Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve set to expire next week. Expectations of a faster pace of Fed rate cuts have also intensified ahead of key U.S. economic data releases, particularly Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar printed its sixth consecutive month of losses and is poised to record its worst first-half performance since the 1970s.
The DXY broke below the 97.00 level on Monday, a support it had held since last Thursday. The next major support is seen at 96.59, which coincides with a long-term ascending trendline that dates back to 2011. A firm break below 96.59 would likely confirm continued bearish momentum, paving the way for further downside. On the other hand, if the index manages to reclaim 97.00, it may remain rangebound in the near term, with initial resistance around 97.50. This dollar weakness has lifted the euro, which is now trading near a four-year high. The EURUSD pair has surged 13.8% in the January–June period, its strongest first-half performance on record. Technically, the pair is trading at the upper end of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, defined by highs from May 26 and June 12 and lows from May 12, May 29, and June 23. The RSI on the 4-hour timeframe is above 60. Resistance lies at 1.18, while support is seen at 1.17.
Crude Oil – WTI rose by 0.4% today and is currently trading at $66.14. From a fundamental stance, the OPEC+ production hike in the July meeting continues to place pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ plans to raise output by 411K bpd in August, pushing total 2025 additions to 1.78M bpd—over 1.5% of global oil demand.
From a technical stance, WTI continues to trade close to the support at the $64.7-$65.4 price mark, as mentioned yesterday. Furthermore, it is the fifth day where crude oil has been rangebound between the $ 65.40-$67.14 price mark. A break above the $67.14 price mark brings an upside; in contrast, a bearish trend ensues if the $65.4 price level is broken. On the 4H chart, a strong bullish divergence can be observed. When the price was low at $65.18 on June 24th, the RSI was at 25.8. Currently, the price is at $66, while the RSI is at 40, supporting a bullish bias for the day. Finally, it is worth noting that a doji candle was printed yesterday; as this doji candle occurs after a series of consolidations in a downtrend, a bullish reversal is highly anticipated.
Gold – Despite recent losses due to risk-off sentiment unwinding, gold has rebounded strongly after testing and bouncing off its long-term bullish trendline. Today, gold prices have surged by 1%, reaching around $3,336 per ounce. This rise is fueled by the dollar’s retreat, driven by concerns over the expanding US government deficit and the progress of a massive tax-cutting and spending bill in the Senate. Adding to gold’s safe-haven appeal is the uncertainty surrounding trade deals with major countries, including President Trump’s fresh tariff threats on Japan. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates later this year, gold is set to attract even more attention in the coming weeks.
Investors are eagerly awaiting key US labor market reports this week, including Thursday’s non-farm payrolls data, which could provide more clues on the Fed’s policy path. Today’s release of several key data points, including the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, will also be closely watched. On the 4-hour chart, gold has broken above the descending channel resistance, setting its sights on the Bollinger Band’s upper boundary at $3,350, which aligns with the 100-day SMA level. A successful break above this level could provide the momentum needed for gold to test the $3,377 mark, a previous support level that has since become resistance from mid-May. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological level of $3,300, followed by $3,275, which served as a support level during Friday’s and Monday’s sessions.
