- Crude Oil
Oil prices declined by around 2% over the last three sessions after Trump announced that he would send letters to over 150 countries, notifying them of tariff rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Moreover, U.S. government data presented a mixed picture of stockpiles, showing an increase in distillate holdings but a decline in nationwide crude inventories. In the near term, oil markets are experiencing a shortfall of crude and diesel in Europe and the United States, which is lending immediate support to prices. Consequently, crude oil prices have gradually inched upwards since May. Additionally, China is driving near-term crude demand, raising its surplus inventories by 1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, marking the largest monthly build since 2020. This has incentivized refiners to boost throughput into H2’2025. China’s robust refinery operations and growing crude stockpiles indicate that underlying oil demand remains intact for now. However, in the long run, analysts project that the global crude oil market will be oversupplied, particularly after seasonal demand declines.
Brent is holding steady around $68.68, with 50-SMA support at $67.25 and 100-SMA support at $66.82 on the day chart. It could encounter resistance at $69.40. WTI is also holding steady at around $66.58, with strong support seen at around $65.05, characterized by the confluence of the super-trend and 50-SMA on the day chart and next 100-SMA support at $64.26. It has resistance at $67.32, where the 9- and 21-day SMAs merge on the daily chart.
- Gold
Gold prices edged 0.54% lower on Thursday, driven by a rise in the dollar buying and a general risk-on sentiment in the market.
On the economic data front, the flat U.S. PPI reading for June signaled stable wholesale prices, implying that tariffs might be having a smaller-than-expected impact on the economy. Further, speeches from multiple Fed members indicated that the economy was still in a good place and that rate cuts could be pushed to September, capping the upside for gold.
On the trade front, the European Union’s top trade official visited Washington on Wednesday for discussions with key U.S. trade and commerce leaders regarding tariffs. Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and China eased following the removal of the AI chip export ban, which reduced trade-related concerns and weakened gold’s safe-haven demand.
Some volatility was seen when reports suggested that President Trump had considered removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, he later denied these claims.
On the technical front, gold is trading at the 9 SMA and holding above the 50 SMA on the daily chart. Prices have been moving range-bound since the start of this month as gold lacks a major catalyst. Immediate support is seen at $3,325 level, which coincides with the upward trendline support connecting the lows of 9th July and 16th July on the one-hour chart. The next support is seen at $3,320, which was the previous breakout level. Below this level, prices could test the psychological $3,300 mark. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the $3,342- $3,350 levels, which have been tested multiple times this month. A break above these levels could push prices to test the $3,365-$3,377 zone. Strong bullish momentum will be solidified once these levels have been breached, which could push prices to $3,405.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 402.75
22 Carat – AED 372.75
21 Carat – AED 357.50
18 Carat – AED 306.50
