- Crude Oil
Oil prices remained largely stable on Monday, with Crude trading at $68.60 and WTI at $65.85, balancing new European sanctions targeting Russian oil with concerns that escalating tariffs could stifle fuel demand, even as OPEC producers increase output. The EU’s 18th sanctions package aims to cut Russia’s oil revenues by banning imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude, even when processed in third countries like India, and imposing a dynamic price cap. Despite these measures, prices haven’t sharply fallen, partly due to ongoing geopolitical factors, shifting trade routes, and market uncertainties, including U.S.-China trade talks and supply disruptions like Canadian wildfires. Adding to the complexity, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened sanctions on Russian oil buyers and new tariffs on the EU, while upcoming Iran nuclear talks further cloud the future supply outlook, creating a tug-of-war between bearish pressures from increased supply and demand worries, and bullish risks from sanctions and other uncertainties.
On the daily chart, Brent remains above a key long-term trendline, supported by the swing lows of May 5, May 30, and July 16, 2025. The RSI is currently sitting at 50, reflecting a neutral stance and signaling market indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers in clear control. Immediate support is seen around the trendline near $67.95, which could act as a cushion if prices pull back. On the upside, resistance is likely around Friday’s high of $69.80, a level that may cap gains unless momentum strengthens. WTI is also trading in a narrow range, between the 100 Day EMA and 21 Day EMA. A possible resistance could be seen at $66.31, and support at $65.58, which acted as the low on Friday.
- Gold
Gold is up by about 0.55% today and is currently trading at $3,368.
From a fundamental standpoint, the ongoing episode over central bank independence and policy direction triggered safe-haven buying last week, although the momentum seems to have faded, the tensions still remain. Furthermore, VIX has entered a seasonally strong period. As markets are overheated and sentiments are overly optimistic, a short-term correction in the equity markets may be possible, paving the way for safe-haven flows.
From a technical standpoint, the commodity is trading at the neckline of an ascending triangle formation, with a price mark of $3,364-$3,374. A break above the $3,374 price mark signals the bullish trend, with targets extending towards $3,436. On the contrary, a break of the trendline support connecting the lows of $2,832 on 28th February, $2,956 on 7th April, $3,247 on 30th June, $3,282 on 9th July, and $3,309 on 17th July triggers a bearish trend. The nearest support levels are at $3,345, followed by $3,331
