- Crude Oil
Crude oil prices edged higher today as investors digested fresh developments in U.S. trade policy. Brent climbed by 0.15% toward $68 after a three-day retreat, while WTI increased by 0.32% near $65.30. The gains followed President Trump’s announcement of new tariff agreements—19% with the Philippines and 15% with Japan.
Adding to the momentum, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm next week, signaling a likely extension of U.S.-China trade talks beyond the August deadline. Crucially, the agenda may now include China’s ongoing imports of sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, potentially reshaping the geopolitical energy landscape.
The American Petroleum Institute data showed a slight drawdown in nationwide crude inventories, even as distillate stocks rose. Meanwhile, WTI’s deepening backwardation and a surge in CFTC net long positions point to renewed speculative appetite. This suggests investors are positioning for a demand rebound, particularly as summer driving activity accelerates in both the U.S. and China. Stronger-than-expected consumption in these two key markets is reinforcing a more bullish short-term outlook, despite persistent concerns over potential oversupply from OPEC+.
WTI Crude Oil is showing signs of rebound, finding support along a trendline that connects the lows of May 6th, May 30th, July 16th, and July 22nd. Price action remains constrained, with upside capped by the 9-day SMA at $65.67, while downside support is reinforced by the 50-day SMA at $65.03.
Brent Crude is similarly trading within a tight range, facing resistance near the 9-day SMA at $68.43, and supported by the 50-day SMA at $67.50. This consolidation suggests a potential breakout scenario, pending a catalyst or shift in market sentiment.
- Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin traded steadily above the $118,000 mark on Wednesday, maintaining its recent momentum despite mixed signals from institutional flows and growing volatility across altcoins. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 0.2% at $118,601, while Ethereum slipped 0.2% to $3,698.
The broader crypto market showed signs of divergence, with BNB gaining 4.6% to hit a new all-time high of $804, while coins like Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, and Avalanche fell up to 2%. Pointed to a sector-wide pause after weeks of bullish price action driven by regulatory optimism and institutional interest.
Bitcoin is consolidating just below its all-time high, showing signs of slowing momentum amid the largest exchange inflows since July 2024 and ETF outflows of $68 million on July 22. Bitcoin’s dominance has now declined for seven straight days, suggesting a capital rotation into altcoins. Ethereum ETFS alone have seen $533.8 million in inflows, potentially setting the stage for a high-volatility altcoin rally.
The market is digesting macroeconomic concerns, but the surge in institutional adoption and clarity on regulations is keeping the uptrend alive. If the momentum sustains, another leg up is possible.
- Gold
Gold is down by about 0.18% and is currently trading at $3,425.
From a fundamental standpoint, Gold’s recent pullback can be attributed to the recent positive developments regarding tariffs. Europe is rushing to conclude a trade agreement with the U.S. before August 1. Trump announced a trade program with Japan that reduces tariffs to 15%; Thailand is also set to close a deal before the deadline at 36%. Looking at China, Trump mentioned that, “Xi invited me to China. We will probably meet in the near future”. However, on the contrary, near-term support for gold is expected as currency options markets suggest the U.S. dollar could come under renewed pressure. Further support for Gold emerges as investors are increasingly worried about Fed independence. This is evident from the rise in 5-year forward inflation swaps, which have diverged from their usual correlation with 2-year yields. Finally, VIX has entered a seasonally strong period. As markets are overheated and sentiments are overly optimistic, a short-term correction in the equity markets may be possible, paving the way for safe-haven flows.
From a technical stance, after breaking the ascending triangle that we had mentioned on Monday, formed with the neckline at $3,364-$3,374 price mark and the trendline support connecting the lows of $2,832 on 28th February, $2,956 on 7th April, $3,247 on 30th June, $3,282 on 9th July, and $3,309 on 17th July, it had reached the target at $3,436, before pulling back. Looking ahead, gold is trading within a larger ascending triangle formation with the neckline at $3,436-$3,451 price mark, and the trend line support connecting the lows of $2,832 on 28th February, $2,956 on 7th April, $3,247 on 30th June, $3,282 on 9th July, and $3,309 on 17th July. Looking ahead into the day, given that gold is trading at the neckline resistance, some intraday pullback is expected. Support levels are at $3,390 and $3,364.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 412.25
22 Carat – AED 381.75
21 Carat – AED 366.25
18 Carat – AED 313.75
