- Crude Oil
Despite OPEC+’s planned production increase in September, the crude oil market displays underlying bullish momentum. Today, Brent and WTI both rebounded by 0.68% to $69.50 and $66.90 respectively, defying previous session losses, underscoring market resilience. While the 547,000 bpd increase from OPEC+ (part of a larger 528,000 bpd total quota adjustment) aims to regain market share, the escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Russian oil could significantly tighten global supply.
President Trump’s aggressive stance, threatening 100% secondary sanctions on Russian crude buyers, risks removing up to 2.75 million bpd from the seaborne market, potentially forcing major importers like India and China to seek alternative, more expensive sources.
This prospect of substantial supply disruption, combined with renewed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following weaker US jobs data, could stimulate demand as a weaker dollar makes oil more affordable. Should these sanctions materialize and global growth avoid a significant downturn, the tightening supply-demand balance would create a powerful tailwind for oil prices.
On the daily chart, WTI rebounded tested and rebounded from the 100-day EMA located near $65.99 level and could attempt to test the 200-day SMA at $67.48 which can act as a resistance. Furthermore, the commodity is still respecting the ascending trendline, tested on May 8th, May 30th , June 25th-26th which provides support around $65.59 level.
On the 4- hour chart, Brent Also rebounded from a strong support located near the 200 SMA at $68.95 and could attempt to test the 21 SMA around $71.26.
- Cryptocurrencies
The global cryptocurrency market saw a broad-based recovery on Monday, led by Bitcoin’s steady rebound and strong gains in major altcoins, as expectations grew for a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September. Bitcoin was trading at $114,345, up 0.7%, after briefly dipping to $111,800 over the weekend. Ethereum surged 2.6% to $3,533, while altcoins like Cardano, XRP, and Stellar posted notable gains—rising up to 8%.
The rebound in Bitcoin and altcoins signals renewed confidence from both institutional and retail investors. Markets are closely watching US CPI data and the Fed’s next moves. The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 52, indicating neutral sentiment.
Bitcoin options data suggests a balanced market, with a 0.98 put/call ratio and implied volatility at 25%, reflecting a range-bound outlook for now.
Investors are betting on softer US monetary policy after July payroll data disappointed, with only 73,000 new jobs added. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, and jobless claims reached a six-week high. These indicators have increased speculation around a potential rate cut by the Fed in its upcoming meetings.
Bitcoin has tested lower support zones near $112,000 and is now holding above $114,000. Resistance is expected near $115,000 and $118,000. With the odds of a rate cut improving, Bitcoin may attempt to breach these levels. Ethereum’s strength suggests altcoins are preparing for the next leg of the rally.
- Gold
After a drastic 2.21% rally on Friday, gold prices seem to have settled near the $3,360-mark, trading slightly lower in Monday’s Asian session.
The significant rise in prices came in after a weaker than expected jobs report, as evident by the Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 73K compared to expectations of 106K, Moreover, earlier readings for June were revised lower, adding to the pressure on the US labor market. This helped to boost demand for the safe haven metal. Amid political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation from the central bank position. This might revive fears of the central bank’s independence, keeping a lid on any meaningful gains in the US Dollar, boding well for the non-yielding bullion. On top of that, rising geopolitical risks with escalating tensions between US and Russia would limit further depreciation of the commodity.
From a technical standpoint, Gold’s bounce from the 100-day SMA last week seems to be supporting a rangebound market structure for prices. However, after a strong bullish candle on Friday with prices crossing above the 50 SMA on the daily chart, along with the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart, it is supporting short-term bullishness. A definitive move above the highs of 16th July near $3,377 could see prices touch the next resistance near $3,391. On the downside, prices could see support near the lows of 30th July at $3,268 levels.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 404.75
22 Carat – AED 375.00
21 Carat – AED 359.50
18 Carat – AED 308.25
