- Crude Oil
Oil rose by 1% in yesterday’s session after investors tracked a supply disruption from Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. According to the estimates from Goldman Sachs, Russia’s refining capacity reduced by 300k barrels per day in August and so far in September due to drone attacks. In today’s session, the commodity has remained steady, holding its gains. On the political front, China and India have been the biggest Russian oil buyers since 2022. The Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated that the US wouldn’t follow through with threats to penalize Russian crude unless Europe also does so. These heightened geopolitical tensions have kept oil supported in the near term. Additionally, oil may also find further support from the expected rate cut in the FOMC meeting this week.
Technically, it is marginally down by 0.1% in today’s session at $63.60. On the 4-hour chart, it broke out of the symmetrical triangle formed by the highs of $66.47, $64.39, and $63.78, and the lows of $61.88 and $62.11, respectively. On the daily timeframe, it stands above the 9-day SMA at $63.13. It faces immediate resistance from the 21-day SMA level of $63.93 and $64.33. Crossing these levels would confirm the bullish momentum is picking up; otherwise, it may find support at $62.33
- US Markets
U.S. equities extended their upward momentum last week, with the S&P 500 advancing 1.59% and the Nasdaq 100 rising 1.67%, both closing at fresh record highs. The S&P 500 climbed to $6,600 while the Nasdaq 100 reached $24,136, underscoring the strength of a rally that has now driven the S&P more than 30% above its April lows, one of the sharpest five-month surges in the past half century. The advance has been fueled by investor optimism that softer labor market conditions and moderating inflation will give the Federal Reserve confidence to begin its long-awaited easing cycle. Markets are fully pricing with a 96.2% probability in a 25-basis-point rate cut at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut has eased to just 3.8%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Beyond the Fed’s policy decision, investor attention will shift to Tuesday’s release of August retail sales data, with consensus expectations pointing to a modest 0.2% monthly increase. The reading will be closely watched for signs of consumer resilience, as spending trends remain a critical factor, offering further insight into consumer resilience.
On the 4-hour chart, the S&P 500 maintains a firm bullish structure. The level 1 support is seen at the 9-day SMA around $6,506. Below that, horizontal trendline supports are placed at $6,478 and $6,356, both of which align with prior consolidation areas that formed a strong base for the current rally. On the upside, immediate resistance is marked at $6,600, the recent all-time high. A sustained breakout above this resistance could open the way for further gains and extend the prevailing bullish momentum.
- US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index slipped 0.12% last week and is slightly lower today as investors await the Fed’s September 17 rate cut decision. Markets widely expect a 25-bps cut, with a small chance of a 50-bps move, which could put significant pressure on the dollar. Traders are also pricing in further easing through 2026 to cushion the economy against recession risks.
Expectations for multiple cuts have grown after last week’s initial jobless claims climbed to their highest level since October 2021, following a weak non-farm payrolls report that overshadowed a hotter-than-expected inflation print.
The Euro declined slightly to $1.173 after Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating to A+ from AA-, its lowest on record, citing political instability and rising debt as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu begins budget talks. However, markets largely shrugged off the downgrade. At the same time, the ECB signaled its rate-cutting cycle may be ending. President Christine Lagarde noted growth risks are becoming more balanced, hinting at a steadier policy stance after months of easing — a shift that could be bullish for the Euro.
On the technical front, the dollar index is trading below the 9 SMA on the daily chart, creating a bearish bias for the greenback. The index is trading in a descending channel on the 4-hour chart, with immediate support at $97.2, followed by July 1st low of $96.3. Immediate resistance is seen at 50 SMA level of $97.7, followed by the 200 SMA level of $98.1.
- Gold
Gold surged to yet another record high of $3,690 on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations of rate cuts. Markets are banking on at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which has sent the U.S. Dollar Index to its lowest level in over seven weeks, at 97.12. There is speculation about the prospect of a higher reduction, although this remains uncertain. Market participants will parse Powell’s FOMC remarks for the Fed’s quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts, known as the dot plot, which could set the tone for the central bank’s trajectory this year. Recent economic data indicate softer conditions in the labour market, thereby contributing to haven demand. Moreover, concerns have arisen about the Fed’s independence following Trump’s attempt to oust Governor Lisa Cook. Additionally, Trump’s economic adviser, Stephen Miran, is set to join the Federal Reserve board and could potentially push for a more dovish tilt given Trump’s repeated calls to lower interest rates.
Gold has rallied 40% year-to-date and 5% so far this month, effectively outpacing its inflation-adjusted peak achieved in 1980. It has created 30 nominal record highs in 2025, propelled by investors seeking a hedge against the possibility of rising prices and weakening currencies amidst Trump’s economic policies. Gold is up 0.35% at $3,692, with immediate 9-SMA support at $3,666 on the 4-hour chart. Sustained moves above $3,700 could pave the way for another leg of bullish momentum.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 444.00 per gram
22 Carat – AED 411.25 per gram
21 Carat – AED 394.00 per gram
18 Carat – AED 338.00 per gram
