- US Markets
After a risk-averse week, markets saw a modest rebound yesterday, with the SPX up 0.37% and the NDX gaining 0.72%. Dip buyers stepped in, supported by upbeat U.S. economic data, giving the market some breathing room.
From a fundamental view, the recovery remains fragile but supported. Tech majors like Amazon, Google, Tesla, AMD, and Broadcom saw mild gains, while Palantir slipped 1.49% as concerns over lofty valuations outweighed its earnings story. Despite the short-term relief, volatility is likely to persist, driven by two key uncertainties. First, the Supreme Court began hearings on the validity of tariffs. While rulings typically take 3–6 months, this case may be expedited due to its political and economic implications. A revocation of tariffs will reignite concerns over fiscal deficits. This is because tariff collections currently offset part of the gap. Second, attention remains on the Fed’s next move. December rate-cut expectations are not guaranteed, given the lack of recent labour data during the government shutdown. The Fed maintains a cautious tone, as inflation remains sticky. Once the government reopens, the release of three NFP reports will be crucial in shaping expectations. Meanwhile, ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 from 50 in September, and private payrolls added 42,000 jobs — better than expected but still tepid.
Technically, the SPX is hovering near $6796 and is testing the 9-day SMA at $6837. A break above could trigger mild bullish momentum toward $6861. On the downside, support lies at $6687 — a level tested multiple times — and then at the 50-day SMA near $6662. The RSI stands at 54, signaling cautious sentiment and limited conviction among investors.
- Crude Oil
WTI crude oil fell by 1.36% to $59.811 on Wednesday as U.S. inventories rose sharply. EIA data showed a 5.2 million barrel build, the largest since July, driven by higher imports, slower exports, and subdued refinery runs during maintenance. In the early Asian trade today, WTI remains flat, trading around $60.02.
The worldwide crude outlook remains bearish. OPEC+ has injected modest supply into the market, while non-OPEC suppliers, specifically the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana, are ramping up supply. Even with some short-term support stemming from concerns about Russian supply and tensions in Venezuela, growing inventories and weak manufacturing data in key economies outweigh the concerns behind this current support.
From a technical standpoint, WTI remains pressured on its daily chart, trading below the 9 and 50-day SMA levels and within its key support range of $60-60.5. Further dampened sentiment could push the WTI down to its next support of $57. Resistance can be seen at the 9-day SMA of $60.71. Brent continues to trade in a range between support at the 20-day SMA of $63.25 and resistance at the 9-day SMA of $64.20.
- US Dollar Index
The dollar index closed 0.04% lower on Wednesday, still holding near multi-month highs. A slight recovery in risk sentiment, fuelled by a strong ADP job report, pulled the greenback down from its recent peak.
Private-sector job creation rebounded in October, offering a positive signal for the U.S. labor market amid the lack of official data. According to ADP, private-sector employment rose by 42K in October, following a 29K decline in the previous month and beating expectations of a 32K increase.
The U.S. dollar also slightly weakened against the euro on Wednesday, with the EUR/USD pair rising 0.09%, to 1.149.
From a technical perspective, the dollar index is trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart, maintaining its bullish stance. RSI on the daily chart has marginally declined to 66, however, it still indicates buying momentum. On the 4-hour chart, a break above the 100.2 level can fuel bullish momentum and take the dollar to the 100.8 level. Above this, the next resistance can be seen at 101.2. Immediate support is at 99.7, which coincides with the 31st October 2025 breakout, followed by the 50 SMA level of 99.4.
- Gold and Silver
After two consecutive weekly declines, gold has remained range-bound between $3,886 and $4,035 this week. The precious metal gained 1.2% in yesterday’s session after ADP payrolls increased by a modest 42k following two monthly declines. While assuaging concerns about a material deterioration, it indicated that the labour market was softening. Fed Governor Miran once again called for rates to be lower by a wider margin than the moderate pace the central bank has adopted. Gold’s eye-watering bull run this year has recently seen a spate of profit-booking as technical indicators looked overstretched and haven demand receded. Until the next catalyst emerges, we can expect gold to consolidate between $ 3,800 and $4,050 an ounce. In the long run, however, the catalysts behind gold’s stellar ascent remain intact and could likely come into play over time.
Gold is up 0.22% at $3,989. A Fibonacci retracement connecting the mid-May low of $3,120.98 to the all-time high of $4,381.48 on October 20 reveals the presence of 38.2% Fib retracement support at $3,902.25, just above the next 50-SMA support at $3,865. Gold faces immediate resistance at the upper bounds of its recent trading range at $4,035. It would need to recapture the upward sloping trendline support above $4,100 for its broader uptrend to gain traction.
Silver is up 0.58% at $48.32, trading above the 9-SMA at $47.80, which acts as support. The next level of support is at the 50-SMA at $46.15, a level that was tested in late October and at the beginning and end of August but held up well. It faces 21-SMS resistance at $49.52.
