- US MarketsÂ
Market pricing now reflects only one rate cut over the next two meetings, while falling volatility gauges in VIX and easing hedging flows suggest that risk appetite is slowly returning. The S&P 500’s ability to hold above the $6,800 level is pivotal, with sustained trade likely to unlock demand and whales support, thus creating a favorable backdrop for incremental upside.
Seasonal tailwinds and corporate buybacks add mechanical strength into year-end, while Nvidia’s upcoming earnings on November 19 represent a potential catalyst for AI-linked equities and broader market sentiment.
Improving technicals, compressed volatility, and supportive flows position markets for a modestly bullish bias as investors await clarity and a potential government reopening.
The SPX 4-hour chart displays a robust recovery from around $6,670 to current levels, getting close to crucial resistance at $6,880, which corresponds with previous swing highs, a break above this level could pave the way for testing $6,900 level. Consecutive green candles maintain the bullish short-term trend, and the immediate support is between 6,817 and 6,783.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold inched up 0.28% yesterday, supported by optimism around the government reopening and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut amid signs of a softening labor market. However, trading remains cautious ahead of Thursday’s CPI release.
On the fundamental side, investors remain cautious ahead of key data releases, especially the upcoming CPI report, which could influence the Fed’s next move. Private indicators continue to signal weakness in the labor market. The latest ADP Weekly  Employment report estimated an addition of 14.2k jobs, but actual data showed a reduction of 11.25k jobs. If CPI prints higher than expected, the Fed may once again need to weigh inflation risks against slowing employment. Rate cut expectations have risen from 63.9% yesterday to 65.6% today, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Technically, gold is testing a key resistance at $4,141. It briefly broke above this level yesterday, touching $4,150 before pulling back. The same resistance held firm during the early hours today, as well as on October 22–24, before the breakdown, on the daily chart. A clear breakout could open the path toward $4,171. On the 4-hour chart, gold is consolidating between $4,141 and $4,096, with $4,096 acting as near-term support. A drop below this level could push prices toward $4,072.
Silver rose by 1.38%, as it was supported by Fed rate cut expectations. Silver is holding near its 3-week high. We see an immediate resistance at 51. 54. If silver breaks and holds beyond this point, we see the next resistance at $52.11 on the four-hour chart. Menwhile the next  support can be seen at $50.24
- Crude OilÂ
WTI Crude Oil extended its upward momentum, gained 1.59% in yesterday’s session, and broke out of an ascending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart, a strong technical signal of bullish momentum. The rally was supported by fresh geopolitical tensions as Russia’s Lukoil has stopped operations at an Iraqi oil field due to sanctions, causing one of the biggest supply disruptions so far and raising concerns about tighter oil availability in the near term. Early in today’s Asian session, prices are slightly lower at $60.94, down 0.30%, as traders book profit on recent gains, but the overall momentum looks bullish. Further support comes from growing optimism that the U.S. government could reopen later this week, a development that would boost economic activity, improve demand outlook, and lift overall energy consumption. Traders will now be turning their attention to OPEC’s monthly market outlook report which is set to be released today that will provide valuable insights into production trends and global demand expectations.
WTI Crude is now trading above its 9 Day SMA of $60.52, which now acts as immediate support, followed by $59.73 (horizontal line support). Immediate resistance lies at $61.74 ( last week’s high), followed by $62.98 (horizontal line resistance). Brent is currently trading at $64.74, down 0.31%. Immediate support lies at the 9 Day SMA at $64.14 and resistance lies at $65.14.
- U.S Dollar Index
In yesterday’s session, the dollar fell by 0.16% after private-sector US jobs data raised concerns about labor market weakness. After the government reopens, the official economic data is likely to confirm the same, which has pressured the dollar. The probability of a rate cut has inched up by a percentage point after yesterday’s ADP data. Options markets are inclined towards renewed weakness, as one-month risk reversals show a pickup in demand for downside protection. However, the factors that have kept the dollar’s underlying bullish trend intact are the large carry trades, which have benefited from low volatility during the shutdown. Further, the yen hit a nine-month low after Takaichi released the draft of the stimulus package yesterday. The draft emphasizes increasing spending without hesitation, and the final package is expected to be released later this month. The prime minister has also asked policymakers to go slow on rate hikes, and US policymakers turned cautious about rate cuts at the last meeting. This policy coordination has given strong support to the dollar.
Technically, the dollar is trading at 99.48 and is still holding above the 21-day SMA at 99.23. Yesterday’s price action shows the dollar rebounded from the 99.29 level and has held the 21-day SMA. The underlying bullish trend remains intact as represented by the ascending parallel channel connecting the lows at 96.56 and 98.03, and the highs at 98.61 and 100.36, respectively. A break above the 100.18 resistance level will confirm further bullishness in the index. Conversely, two significant support levels are seen at the 21-day SMA and the channel support at 99.05. A breakdown below these levels may indicate bearishness and a trend reversal.
