- Crude OilÂ
Last week, a Ukrainian strike on the Russian port of Novorossiysk caused damage and temporarily halted operations. However, two tankers were able to dock on Sunday, signaling that activity at the terminals has resumed and easing concerns about supply disruptions. This pushed WTI prices down to $59.4 and Brent to $64.8. Separately, Iran seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of global oil shipments.
Investors are also watching the effects of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade. The U.S. has introduced measures banning transactions with Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21 to pressure Moscow into peace talks, while Donald Trump announced that Republicans are preparing legislation to penalize any country that continues to do business with Russia.
Overall, oil sentiment remains bearish as OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers increase output, adding to concerns about oversupply. Still, the Novorossiysk attack and Iran’s tanker seizure have introduced a new geopolitical risk premium, offering some short-term price support.
From a technical perspective, WTI is slightly below the 9 SMA on the daily chart, with RSI near 46, indicating weak momentum. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at the key breakout level of $59. A break below this level can push prices to the previous resistance turned support level of $58.4. Resistance is seen at the 200 SMA level of $59.8, followed by the key level of $60.2. A break above this level can establish a bullish move for WTI. Brent has immediate support at the $63.5 level and resistance at the 100 SMA level of $64.7.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold ended the last week with a 2% decline as rate-cut expectations faded after comments by Fed officials, suggesting they were less convinced of a rate cut. Higher interest rates make the bullion less appealing for investors. Gold continues its decline in today’s session, carrying the sentiment from the previous week. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut has fallen from 62% a week ago to 44% in today’s session. However, investors are likely to wait for official data releases before predicting the next big move, as the 6-week data gap has clouded the outlook. Despite the recent pullback, the medium to long-term trend remains intact, supported by elevated central bank and ETF purchases as a hedge against growing fiscal unease in the world’s biggest economies. In Friday’s session, despite the decline, ETFs added 115,124 troy ounces of gold, bringing their net purchases to 14.1 million ounces. Total gold held by ETFs has risen by 17% this year to 97.5 million ounces. The yellow metal is up 55% this year and on track for its best annual performance since 1979.
Technically, the commodity is trading at $4,078 and is hovering around the 9 and 21-day SMA levels of $4,081 and $4,065, respectively. It is trading in an ascending parallel channel connecting the highs of $4,030 and $4,212; and lows of $3,932 and $4,050, respectively. It broke above the $3,931-$4,026 range last week and is still holding above $4,026. A break above the $4,100 will fuel further bullish momentum. Conversely, a break below the channel support at $4,050, followed by $4,026, will lead to a resumption of the metal’s consolidation phase.
Silver is up 0.5% in today’s session and is trading at $51, above the 9 and 21-day SMA levels of $50.36 and $49.28, respectively. ETF purchases have also remained strong in silver, with ETFs adding 308,441 troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last session, bringing the net purchases to 97.7 million ounces and a 14% growth in their silver holdings year to date. The daily RSI is holding above 50, indicating that bullish momentum in silver persists. A break above $51.5 will propel it towards reclaiming $52.5 levels. Conversely, a break below the immediate support at $50.54, followed by a break below $50, will push it lower into a consolidation phase seen earlier in the $46.95 to $48.95 range.
