- US Markets
The S&P 500 gained 0.84% in yesterday’s session while the Nasdaq rose 0.52% extending its three-day winning streak. The positive momentum continues for today with the S&P 500 trading at $6,785 up by 0.32% reflecting solid investor confidence. Alphabet rose 1.53% to a record close of $323.44, marking a closer to a $4 trillion valuation, while Meta Platforms surged 3.78% on news that it may invest billions in Alphabet’s AI chips for data centers starting in 2027, making it the top contributor to S&P 500 gains. Macro data remained supportive of the bullish narrative. September PPI came in line with expectations at 0.3%, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slipped below 4%, reinforcing expectations for a future rate cut and further lifting market sentiments. Market participants would closely watch today’s release of September New Home Sales and Initial Jobless Claims data, which would provide further insights into U.S. economic momentum and labor market strength.
Technically, the setup remains constructive, the SPX Index is trading above all its key 9-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages. Immediate support lies at $6,765 (6th Oct week high), followed by $6,705, which falls on an ascending trendline, and then the 9 Day SMA at $ 6,679. Immediate resistance is seen at $6,880 (3rd Nov week high), followed by $6,922 (all-time high). Additionally, the RSI at 54.78 is pointing higher, signaling strengthening bullish momentum and room for further upside.
- Crude Oil
Today, Brent and WTI stabilised, rising by 0.21% and 0.42%, respectively.
The crude oil markets are facing an overriding downside risk due to the expected peace framework between Russia and Ukraine, which, upon ratification, could remove sanctions and flood the markets with Russian oil.
The bearish bias here is supported by supply projections, with Analysts and EIA predicting a surplus of at least 2 million bpd in 2026 and Brent averaging $54 in the first quarter of 2026, hence indicating a continued build in inventories. Conversely, actual disruptions related to U.S. sanctions affecting 1.4 million bpd in floating storage and some reduction in the shipment of Russian oil products through India and China are mitigating the negative, in addition to high distillate crack.
After declining from the mid-November highs of $65, Brent is hovering today around $62, with the price battling in the $61.50–$62.00 support range. Short-term stabilization is indicated by the most recent indecisive price movement; however, unless $63.50 is reclaimed, the overall prognosis remains pessimistic with possible support near $60.70.
WTI is trading near $58, failing to sustain an attempted rally. The steady formation of lower highs underlines the bearish bias, with resistance near the $58.50-$59.50 range, and support can be seen near the $56.80 level.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The improving odds of a December rate cut have compelled the U.S. Dollar index to retreat below the level 100 threshold to trade lower by 0.2% at 99.57 at present. Yesterday, the 10-year treasury yield dipped below 4% for the first time in a month as U.S. Consumer Confidence fell to 88.7, missing consensus estimates. Even the 6-month forward expectations slipped by the most since April. Moreover, private payrolls declined by 13,500 jobs on average over the past four weeks. Retail Sales grew at a modest pace of 0.2% in September, lower than the 0.6% gain recorded in August. Although 8 out of the 13 categories gained, motor vehicle sales dropped for the first time in four months. These data points contrast with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index which projects an optimistic growth estimate of 4.02% in Q3 2025, higher than Wall Street estimates. Amid this mixed picture, the attention shifts to today’s economic calendar which holds vital data points like US Durable Goods Orders, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, the Fed Beige Book – which will shed further light on economic health and thereby influence the dollar’s trajectory.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which is down 0.2% at 99.57, retreated after testing its resistance zone between 100.27 and 100.54. This area is significant as it capped gains in late May, early August, and the first week of November. The index is presently trading below the 200-day SMA located at 99.77, which acts as immediate resistance. It has 50-day SMA support at 98.93, which aligns with the lows of mid-November. This level could be tested if forthcoming economic reports signal weakness.
- Gold & Silver
Gold settled flat at $4,130 in yesterday’s session, before advancing in early Asian trading today, up 0.70% trading near $4,160. The yellow metal was supported by a softer US dollar and strengthening expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Weakness in delayed US economic data, including softer retail sales and a sharp drop in consumer confidence, reinforced the view that economic momentum is cooling. Markets are now assigning an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting, further boosted by dovish remarks from Fed officials, including Governor Stephen Miran, who warned that a deteriorating labour market warrants sizable easing.
A weaker dollar, which slipped to a one-week low, has added to gold’s appeal by making the metal cheaper for global buyers. Despite some pullback from optimism around a Russia-Ukraine peace framework, the overall bias for Gold remains upward with multiple Fed speakers leaning dovish and inflation indicators softening.
On the daily chart, Gold continues to hold steady on the verge of a symmetrical triangle breakout, as it tests the $4,160 level. A clear breakthrough above this point will open the path toward $4,190-$4,220. Strong support is seen at the 9-SMA at $4,093.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 501.50
22 Carat – AED 464.25
21 Carat – AED 445.25
18 Carat – AED 381.50
Silver rose by 0.2% on Tuesday and is trading around $51.92, up 1% today. From a technical standpoint, the white metal’s resistance is at 52.33. A break above this level may propel Silver towards its all-time highs of $54.47. Conversely, support is seen between the 9-day SMA at $50.90 and the 50-day SMA at $50.12.
