- US MarketsÂ
The S&P 500 rose 0.75% in yesterday’s session, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.96%, marking four days of a winning streak as AI stocks rebounded and on increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will end the year with another rate cut next month. Markets are now pricing an 80.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In corporate news. Dell Technologies Inc. gained 5.83% following its third-quarter result updates with revenue of US$27.01 billion and net income of US$1.55 billion, along with raised full-year guidance citing robust AI server demand and significant client collaborations. Yesterday’s data for Initial Jobless Claims came in at 216K, while the Chicago PMI for September registered 36.3 vs. 46.3 expected, indicating easing economic pressures and supporting expectations for a potential rate cut being positive for equities. Seasonality is also supporting equities. Historically, November has been the best month over the last decade, with average returns of 4.14% for the SPX and 4.03% for the Nasdaq, reinforcing the market’s current bullish tone. Markets remain closed today for Thanksgiving.
On the Technical side, SPX Index trades above all its key major moving averages. The 9, 20, and 50 Day SMA are situated at $6,689, $6748, and $6,725 respectively. Immediate support is seen at $6,764 (yesterday’s low), followed by 50 Day SMA of $6,748. Immediate resistance is at $6,878 (horizontal line resistance) followed by all all-time high level of $6,922.
- Crude OilÂ
Crude oil is under strong short-term bearish pressure, with Brent prices hovering just above $62, and WTI trying to hold on to the support level of $58.
The outlook is dominated by three main drivers. First a potential geopolitical breakthrough with U.S.- Russian talks progressing towards potential sanctions removal and reintegration of Russian supplies. Additionally, a looming structural surplus estimated for 2026, and a change in strategy of the OPEC+ group towards defending market shares rather than prices. And finally, the seasonality effect which continues to pressure oil. In the last decade Brent and WTI witnessed an avaergae loss of  2.88% and 2.52% respectively.
The 4-hour chart is biased towards selling with a target of $61.80 and second support near $61.38. Meanwhile resistance lays near $62.84 a break above this level with volume would invalidate the bearish view.
WTI is currently quoted around $58.21 with resistance levels of $58.60-$58.84 and strong support levels of $57.99-$57.70. Lack of bounce and dwindling volume could establish bears’ control on the prices.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. Dollar Index softened further despite a decline in the weekly initial jobless claims to the lowest level since April to 216K. This is because the reading was likely seasonally adjusted lower. On an unadjusted basis, the jobless claims increased by 25.7k. Even continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased by 7k to 1.96 million for the week ending Nov 15. This report, alongside a wave of other softer data points, has reasserted the case for a rate cut in December, with the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction rising to 83%. As a result, the U.S. Dollar index, which had risen to a 6-month high last week, is now trading below the level 100 threshold at 99.48, down 0.11% for the day. This recent decline marks its steepest weekly drop since July. Additionally, with Kevin Hasset emerging as a front-runner to be the next Fed Chair in 2026, markets are expecting further rate cuts next year. Lastly, the improving narrative for G-10 peer currencies is also weighing on the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar index, which is trading at 99.48, is likely to test the 50-day SMA support at 98.97, which aligns with the lows created in mid-November. It faces immediate 200-day SMA resistance at 99.74, followed by the next resistance between 100.27-100.54 – a zone that capped gains in late May, early August, and the first week of November.
- Gold & SilverÂ
Gold gained 0.78% in yesterday’s session before easing slightly today, trading around $4,155 (-0.2%). The metal remains supported by growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will deliver a December rate cut, with markets now increasingly pricing an 85% probability of a third consecutive easing move.
In addition to this positive sentiment, the speculation surrounding the possible selection of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed chair is ramping up. This has added to this bullish outlook, given his perceived dovish stance towards interest rates, as well as strengthening market expectations that 2026 could see another accommodative policy. As the overall policy environment becomes more supportive, the weaker dollar will likely drive gains in gold, despite some short-term profit-taking.
From a technical stance, Gold continues to hold steady on the verge of a symmetrical triangle breakout, as it tests the $4,155 level. A clear breakthrough above this point should open the path toward $4,180-$4,200. Strong support lies at the 9-SMA at $4,100.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 500.25
22 Carat – AED 463.25
21 Carat – AED 444.25
18 Carat – AED 380.75
Silver surged to $53.33 (+3.67%) on Wednesday, and is trading around $52.88 (-0.86%) today. The white metal faces immediate resistance at $53.54, a level it has previously tested. Conversely, support is seen between $52.45 – $52.50.
