The S&P 500 ended the week at $6,870.40, gaining 0.19% on Friday and 0.31% over the week. S&P futures are steady today, as investors await this week’s Fed FOMC meeting, key economic data, and earnings releases.
S&P continues to trade near its record highs with valuations at 23.8 on a 1-year forward P/E multiple basis according to data from Bloomberg. With 9 out of the past 10 sessions closing in positive, Equities continue their strong momentum, pricing in rate cuts with 88% probability at the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting. Rate cuts have been favourable for small-cap stocks as the Russell 2000 inches towards its all-time highs. Nasdaq finished the week higher as well, with key tech earnings this week, including Oracle and Broadcom, expected to drive momentum and provide clarity over the state of the AI ecosystem. OpenAI is also scheduled to release its new reasoning model, GPT 5.2, this week, after the company’s CEO, Sam Altman, issued a code-red directive last week. This model is expected to take on the Gemini 3 model that topped industry benchmarks. Key economic data this week includes the release of consumer inflation expectations for November, JOLTs Job Openings for September and October, the Core PPI, and the Fed Balance Sheet report. Money market rates fell last week as rate-cut expectations were priced in, and the key 10-year Bond yield sits at 4.14%, having risen the previous week along with the long end of the curve, indicating a bullish steepener. This is positive for the banking sector, as their funding is tied to money market rates, whereas their lending rates are tied to the long end of the curve.
The S&P 500 continues to trade above its short-term moving averages, supporting bullish momentum, with immediate resistance at $6,885. The Fed rate cut might provide the bulls enough steam to cross this level. A break above this immediate resistance would be needed to test the next level, which lies at its all-time high. Support lies at $6,867 and the 9-day SMA at $6,847.
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.11% in today’s session after closing two consecutive weeks in the red, pressured by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. Markets are pricing in around an 88% chance of a 25 bps cut on Wednesday. However, the outlook for 2026 remains unclear, with analysts expecting a hawkish cut where Chair Jerome Powell may signal caution on further easing. Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries remain under pressure on the risk of hawkish guidance.
This week’s U.S. data includes the delayed October JOLTS report on Tuesday, offering fresh labor market insight. Global focus also turns to central bank meetings in Australia, Brazil, Canada and Switzerland, though policy rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar index posted a hammer-like candle on the 4-hour chart, hinting at potential stabilisation. Support is seen at last week’s low of 98.765, while resistance is at the 50-day SMA of 99.162. EUR/USD is up 0.2% today, trading around 1.166, continuing its positive uptrend after posting two weekly gains. The pair has been supported by an ascending trendline since November 25. Trendline support is at 1.163. Resistance is located at last week’s high of 1.168. EUR/USD options expiring tomorrow show slightly higher implied volatility on the call side, hinting at mild bullish positioning ahead of the FOMC. Traders seem to be hedging for a scenario where a Fed cut could lift the euro.
Oil ended last week in positive territory, marking its second consecutive weekly gain since August. India’s purchases of Russian crude oil and the recent attacks on Russian’s energy infrastructure by Ukrainian forces led the surge. President Putin has pledged an uninterrupted supply of Russian crude to India, which is expected to spark discussion during the trade talks with U.S. negotiators soon. Meanwhile, Ukraine attacked Russia’s CPC terminal, which constitutes a key export hub in the Black Sea, alongside other energy facilities. This is lending temporary support to oil prices, with Brent up 0.15% for the day at $63.90 and WTI up 0.12% for the day at $60.23. Nevertheless, long-term fundamentals indicate a supply glut in 2026, as all three forecasting agencies (IEA, EIA, and OPEC) anticipate demand to fall in Q1 2026 amid robust supply. As the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter, demand for oil could ease. In the past, this period was characterized by higher demand, but due to climate change, as well as increased use of alternatives such as natural gas, demand has tended to ease during winter in recent times. Thus, overall surplus is projected to increase in Q1 2026 to ~4 mbpd, as per IEA estimates.
On the weekly chart, oil was trading within a downward sloping wedge from late June to early December. It is currently trading above the upper-bound of that wedge, which signals the possibility of consolidation around current levels until further catalysts emerge in the form monthly reports by OPEC and IEA this week. Brent, which is trading at $63.90, could encounter resistance between $64.52 and $65.12, characterized by early November highs. It has immediate support at $63, with next support at $62.20. WTI, which is trading at $60.23, has immediate support at $58.93, with resistance at $61.55.
Gold continues consolidating around $4,200, increasing today by 0.39% and silver is trading flat at $58.25 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 9-10. Market expectations signal an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point easing to 3.50%-3.75%. Also, the People’s Bank of China’s thirteenth successive month of accumulation provides a strong floor for Gold. Meanwhile, industrial metals hedge out immediate price momentum. A strong move for silver and supply-related gains in copper have invited new investors.
The gold-silver ratio plunged to a five-year low of 72.35, down from its April 2025 peak of 104.7, driven by silver’s explosive 101.53% YTD gains versus Gold’s 60% rise, lower than the 82.27 for the year’s average. The major factors for this comprise a 95 million oz supply deficit in silver, a rising industrial use requirement along with a physical constraint, and strong ETF inflows.
As such, bullish pressure could be expected today.
On the chart, Gold appears to be consolidating in an ascending channel while maintaining important support levels at $4,200 after pulling back from daily peaks of around $4,265 marked last week. Breaking levels below $4,200 may lead to a potential drop to $4,157 and $4,100 levels, while a breakthrough above $4,245-$4,250 levels may help Gold move towards $4,300 or beyond.
As for silver, it sustains a level above $58 after approaching $59.33. A breakout above the previous high may signal a target for a level around $60. Conversely, a failure to hold $56.6 56.6may lead to a test of levels around $54.
Taken altogether, both metals form a pattern of consolidation following strong gains. While Gold has more defined structures, silver remains more volatile.
