- U.S. MarketsÂ
SPX fell for the fourth consecutive session and fell by 0.83% yesterday. The markets are trading in a muted manner as investors await key CPI data today.
On a fundamental level, investors are on the edge as they await Inflation data that will be released today. With the weak labor market data, investors are eyeing inflation data. Investors are anticipating a 3.1% headline Inflation YoY. Hotter than expected inflation may loom around possibility of a rate cut in January and further make it difficult for the Fed and Investors to understand health of the US Economy. Micron Technology gained around 7% yesterday after an upbeat earnings and forecasts.
On a technical level SPX is trading below its 9,21- and 50-day SMA. On the daily chart SPX has been trading in a consolidating pattern from $6550 to $6915 since October. Over a medium term the SPX may touch $6550 due to the consolidating pattern. A break below the level can lead to further downside to $6437.The daily RSI has been trending downwards from 60 on Dec 10 to 43. The markets may potentially trade with caution before the CPI data is out today. A lower-than-expected CPI can lead to bullish momentum in the markets.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold eased modestly today after closing higher in yesterday’s session. Silver, on the other hand, is in the green today after making a record high yesterday.
Gold is seeing some profit booking and pressure from a higher dollar today, although it still remains near record highs. Both metals are supported by a dovish Fed, given the cooling U.S. labour market. Investors are anticipating the November CPI data, which will be released later today.
Gold is down 0.15% while silver is up 0.37%, and made a new all-time high of $66.8 yesterday. It is expected that silver will test the $70 level next year, particularly if U.S. interest rate cuts continue to underpin appetite for precious metals.
From a technical perspective, Gold is trading above 9 SMA and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI rose from yesterday’s level and is now close to 88. This indicates very strong bullish momentum building up for gold. Immediate support is at the 100 SMA level of $4,312 on the 1-hour chart. Next support is at $4,290, followed by $4,271, which is the 16th December low. Immediate resistance is seen at $4,354, followed by all-time high of $4,381.
Silver is also trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI is at 82, which indicates strong ongoing bullish momentum for silver. Immediate support is at $65.5, which is the 17th December breakout level on the 1-hour chart. Next support is at the 12th December high of $64.6. Resistance is seen at the new record high level of $66.8. A break above this level can push prices to new highs and strengthen the bullish move.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.2% and settled at 98.39 on Wednesday, helped by a softer tone in U.S. equities and Fed Governor Waller’s hawkish remarks. It is trading flat in today’s session.
The greenback found brief support after the Fed remarks highlighted a tilt towards a possible rate-hold stance at the upcoming FOMC meeting, driven by a weaker labor market and soft payroll growth. However, DXY failed to hold its weekly highs near 98.60, retaining an overall soft bias. Markets are now focused on today’s U.S. inflation release, with November CPI expected at 3.1% YoY; an upside surprise could lend near-term support to the dollar.
The EURUSD pair traded around 1.174 after the Eurozone November CPI came in at 2.1% YoY, below expectations. Markets now turn their attention to ECB’s policy decision, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Overall, the DXY remains range-bound, with the near-term outlook reliant on CPI outcomes.
On the daily chart, DXY trades below all key moving averages and faces possible resistance at its 9-day SMA at 98.55. Support lies at yesterday’s low of 98.18. As for EURUSD, strong support is seen at the 9-day SMA level of 1.1713, while resistance is at 1.1760, a previously tested level.
- Crude Oil
WTI and Brent crude prices are expected to demonstrate strong bearish momentum with the growing prominence of oversupply instead of geopolitical risks.
Market actions show signs of further extension of weekly losses for both contracts, with Brent further weakening to around $59.90 per barrel and WTI to $56.29 per barrel, as market participants price in a large oversupply for early 2026.
Meanwhile, global inventories have shown a four-year high, with an average build of 1.2 million barrels per day for the rest of 2025, which further exacerbates the fundamental gap between supply and demand. At the same time, market expectations for a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine further pressured oil, as market expect loosening of sanctions and a potential rise in Russian exports, which further support the oversupply theme.
On the 4-hour chart, Brent is trading in a downtrend, with the latest corrective uptrend likely to continue rather than mark a major change in the trend. Prices are now stalling below the $60 psychological barrier, with the stronger resistance zone at $61.5-62.0 expected to contain any upside movements. Anything less than a higher low at the $59.3-$59.0 zone would be expected to see pressures continue below.
As for WTI, and after recovering to $56.50 but signs of a loss of momentum have emerged. Unless $55.9 is defended, a further decline to $55.5 is anticipated. While, resistance is located near previous highs at $56.50
