- U.S. MarketsÂ
US stocks are trading lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.40% and the Nasdaq-100 declining 0.52%, as market participants digest mixed economic signals and geopolitical concerns following Wednesday’s close.
Cyclical sectors, Industrials, Materials, and Financials, have softened, while Technology outperformed, reflecting selective risk appetite. Labor market data proved contradictory as JOLTS job openings fell sharply, signalling weakening demand, while ADP private employment growth remained modest. However, the ISM Services index beat expectations, indicating resilience in services activity. These divergent signals have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will pursue aggressive monetary easing, with two quarter-point rate cuts priced into 2026. The immediate outlook remains clouded by policy uncertainty and mixed economic fundamentals; however the bullish structure remains intact.
On the technical front, the S&P 500 is consolidating around $6,900 after pulling back from the $6,960 swing high, with critical resistance now established at $6,940–$6,955. Meanwhile, support can be located near $6,860 and $6,833. This level is pivotal, a hold would likely trigger a rebound, while a decisive break below could open the door for a deeper correction.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold and silver are inching lower for the second straight session ahead of an imminent annual rebalancing of commodity indices. This could result in futures contracts being sold in the markets to comply with the rebalancing requirements. An estimated $6.8 billion in silver futures and an equivalent amount in gold futures are projected to be sold, deemed necessary after the blistering precious metal rally, which increased their weightings in the commodity indices. Gold declined around 1% in yesterday’s session and is down 0.44% at $4,437. Silver is down 2.41% at $76.38. Nevertheless, the long-term fundamentals that drove the rally in both metals remain intact. The PBOC continued adding gold to its reserves for the 14th straight month, and the net gold purchases by global central banks reached 45 tons in November. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as uncertainty around China-Japan trade relations, have ensured haven-demand remains strong. Tomorrow’s December jobs data will be monitored closely as it will be a key input in the Fed’s decision-making.
Gold is trading at $4,435. With immediate 9-SMA support at $4,410, followed by 21-SMA support at $4,368. It could face resistance at $4,496. Silver is trading at $76.38, with 9-SMA support at $75.82, and the next support at $74.47. It has resistance at around $77.85 and $78.91.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI is trading around $56.31 (-0.2%) in early Asian hours, following two days of consecutive declines. In yesterday’s session, WTI crude slipped by 1%, dropping to its lowest levels since Dec 19. While IEA data surprised markets with a larger-than-expected 3.83 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories, the broader market outlook remains under pressure.
Markets are watching how the U.S. decision to manage Venezuelan crude will affect supply. President Trump said Venezuela will hand over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, and the U.S. will oversee PDVSA, Venezuela’s national oil company, and direct exports. According to the U.S. EIA, global oil production currently stands at 107.4 million barrels per day. While a one-time release of 30–50 million barrels won’t move the needle on its own for long relative to ongoing daily production, this has raised expectations that more oil will enter an already oversupplied market. As a result, most short-term price moves following the announcement are driven more by geopolitical sentiment and expectations of future production changes than by the physical volume alone.
Concerns about a growing surplus through 2026 are limiting price rallies. Geopolitical news adds some volatility, but the dominant force remains the supply glut. WTI is likely to stay weak in the medium term unless demand picks up or there is a clear move to cut supply.
On the daily charts, WTI retains a bearish bias. Resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $57.23, while WTI may find support at $55.85. Brent is trading around $59.93 (-0.25%) in today’s session. It may find support around $59.08, a previously tested level. Potential resistance is seen at $60.76, yesterday’s high.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Â
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade steadily around 98.70 in today’s session after advancing in yesterday’s session, amidst a slew of mixed economic data releases.
The DXY shrugged off the decline in November’s JOLTS to 7.1 million jobs open, buoyed by the ISM Services PMI at 54.4 (the strongest since October 2024). The ADP report showed that private-sector employment increased by 41,000 jobs in December as small businesses expanded their staffs. This underpinned DXY amid the Fed’s hawkish stance, and the economic momentum remains intact. The probability of a rate-hold stance at the next Fed meeting this month sits at 86.7% according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Traders have been trimming bearish USD view for eight days in a row, shown by the one-month risk reversals on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edging towards parity, now pricing almost no depreciation in the US currency over the coming weeks.
The DXY is showing constructive short-term momentum. It is now comfortably above the 9- and 20-day SMAs at 98.38 and 98.34, while the 50-day SMA at 99.07 and the 200-day SMA at 98.84 continue to define key resistance. Momentum indicators have strengthened. The short-term RSI has moved into the low-60s, and 9–14 day stochastic readings above 80 indicate strong upside momentum, but confirmation of a trend reversal requires a strong break above the 99.00–99.10 area. The EUR/USD remains calm, trading around 1.168 in today’s session, below its 9 and 20-day SMAs at 1.171 and 1.168, with possible support at the 1.165 level. The near-term trend for the currency pair indicates a weakening momentum.
