- U.S. MarketsÂ
The S&P 500 closed Thursday unchanged, while the Nasdaq ended lower by 0.54%, with markets showing a cautious tone ahead of Friday’s jobs report.
The NFP report is expected to confirm that the employment situation is one of no-hire, no-fire, with moderate job growth of 66,000 jobs versus last month’s 64,000. Markets are pricing in two cuts for 2026, but indications from Fed officials that there will be only one cut in December keep rate expectations highly sensitive to any negative news on jobs. Treasury yields remain close to 4.18%, but the Dollar Index holds at a high for a month, cementing a risk-off atmosphere.
Nonetheless, shares of aerospace companies rose to new highs, led by European shares, but so far, optimism inspired by Nvidia officials’ positive remarks about artificial intelligence applications remains a supportive factor.
On the 4-H chart, the Price is consolidating within a rising wedge, but it has been supported above an important level at $6,880. Until this level is broken, the trend remains bullish, and a grind higher to $6,940-$6,960 seems likely. Breaking above $6,960 would then allow a push to $7,000.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold has gained approximately 3% so far this week, placing it on track to deliver a weekly gain. This would mark its 4th weekly gain in the last five weeks. Despite a strong dollar and lower-than-anticipated initial jobless claims, gold still held its ground this week. This is due to safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as uncertainty pertaining to trade relations between China and Japan. Attention now shifts to the December non-farm payrolls, due for release today, as it will serve as a key data point influencing the Fed’s trajectory. Consensus estimates suggest hiring is likely to remain strong, yet the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady, creating a mixed outlook about the labour market.
Moreover, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump is likely to announce Chairman Powell’s successor this month, prompting speculation that the new Chair will mirror Trump’s stance on lower interest rates. While a rebalancing of commodity indices could exert some pressure on precious metals in the short run, all the long-term catalysts supporting the rally remain in place. Silver is also supported by a supply shortage, as industrial demand outpaces supply. It is exhibiting heightened volatility, with the 30-day volatility being nearly 18 points greater than the 90-day volatility.
Gold is down 0.14% at $4,472, with immediate support at $4,425, roughly aligning with the low created in the first week of January. It could encounter resistance at $4,550. Silver is up 0.43% at $77.38, trading just above the upward-sloping trendline support at 74.92. It could encounter resistance around $79.54
- Crude OilÂ
WTI bounced back on Thursday, rising more than 3.6% to close near $58.46. This move was driven by short-covering and a bigger-than-expected 3.83 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories, which helped prices recover from recent lows. Geopolitical tensions are also adding a risk premium, and in today’s Asian session, WTI is trading around $58.40, down 0.15%.
When tensions rise among major oil producers like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, traders worry that supplies could be disrupted in the future. That fear of potential supply disruptions is driving investors to bid up oil prices today, adding a geopolitical risk premium to WTI.
Options markets are turning more bullish, and commodity index rebalancing is bringing in short-term inflows. Elevated open interest at the $61 strike for Feb-26 WTI calls reflects rising bullish sentiment, with traders positioning for further upside beyond current levels (Source: Bloomberg). However, even with the recent rebound, the medium-term outlook is still weak. Global surpluses are expected to grow in 2026, and as long as supply stays ahead of demand, price rallies may not last. Traders are now watching U.S. payrolls data for the next short-term signal.
On the daily charts, WTI is trading above its 9-day and 20-day SMAs and has moved past a key descending trendline formed by connecting the highs from July 30, September 26, December 26, 2025, and January 2, 2026. This trendline, which was a strong resistance level, could now act as support near $58.04. On the upside, WTI may face resistance at the 50-day moving average at $58.70. Brent rose 3.8% yesterday and is now trading at $62.24, down 0.2%. Resistance is at yesterday’s high of $62.78, and support may be found near $61.26.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Â
The U.S. Dollar index is advancing in today’s session, trading around 98.94, holding gains for a fourth day. It’s climbing to its highest level in nearly a month.
Traders are positioning ahead of the December NFP report today for clearer signals on the job market and how it might shape the Federal Reserve’s outlook. The more impactful number from the report is likely to be the unemployment rate, which is at a 4-year high. A lower print on unemployment is likely to support DXY’s upward momentum. Yesterday’s release showed initial jobless claims edging up slightly. However, some positivity was induced with the announced job cuts falling to 35,553 in December, the lowest level since July 2024. Another focus issue is the possible Supreme Court ruling on tariffs today. If the court rules these tariffs as lawful, that could support the dollar further. EU–US consensus growth estimates for 2026 point to a meaningfully stronger US economy, a backdrop that argues for a firmer greenback, especially from current levels. That view was reinforced by the latest update to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, which sees US Q4 growth running at a punchy 5.4%.
The DXY is likely to advance in the short term. On the daily chart, it is firmly above its 5- and 20-day SMAs at 98.68 and 98.36 and receives additional support from the 100-day SMA at 98.61. The immediate resistance test will be at the 50-day SMA level of 99.07, and a clean break and hold above the 99.00-99.10 zone would be required for an upside follow-through. EUR/USD holds ground, trading around 1.165, with possible support at 1.160 and resistance at 1.168, as the pair could face further downside.
