- US Markets
SPX rose by 1.5% last week, reaching an all-time high close at $6,966. This morning, during the Asian trading session, SPX is down 0.56%.
Last week’s softer December non-farm payrolls print reinforced the soft-landing narrative rather than raising recession concerns. The unemployment rate eased to 4.4%. Markets are now pricing in almost a non-existent chance of a Fed Rate Cut in January. Today’s price action shows more calm than caution, as investors feel comfortable with growth moderating but not breaking. The underlying fundamentals are very supportive. While political headlines and noise around the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell have added short-term volatility, markets continue to look through this and focus on earnings, liquidity and macro stability. This week’s key data: CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday and GDP on Thursday, will be important, but unless inflation surprises meaningfully to the upside, the data flow should remain equity-friendly. The earnings season also kicks off with major financials reporting, including JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock on Thursday. These results will be closely watched for signals on credit quality, margins and capital markets activity.
From a technical and options positioning standpoint, the setup remains constructive. The index has formed a Morning Star pattern, signalling bullish momentum, and continues to respect a rising trendline connecting the November 20, December 17 and January 2 lows. The options positioning data also supports a push higher for the SPX, coupled with subdued implied volatility, positive dealer gamma, and steady 0 DTE flows, helping cushion pullbacks. Longer-dated hedging remains measured, suggesting prudence rather than fear. Support levels are seen at Friday’s low at $6,918, followed by last week’s low at $6,890. On the upside, resistance is seen at the all-time high of $6,978, followed by the psychological $7,000 level. Overall, momentum, structure and positioning point to continued upside, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than the start of a deeper correction.
- Gold and Silver
Gold closed above $4,500 on Friday and is up 1.5% today, reaching new record highs and briefly hitting $4,600 per ounce. This exponential rise was driven by growing geopolitical tensions and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, which increased demand for safe-haven assets. Ongoing unrest in Iran, renewed U.S. military pressure on Venezuela, and uncertainty about the Fed, following Chair Jerome Powell’s claim that the Trump administration threatened him with criminal action over Congressional testimony, have all added to concerns about central bank credibility.
Adding to the bullish momentum, Friday’s U.S. labour data showed weaker job growth (NFP +50K vs. 66K expected), reinforcing expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year. This backdrop favours non-yielding assets like gold. Moreover, the U.S. dollar has retreated from a one-month high, further boosting bullion.
Silver also jumped to record highs, reflecting the same macro and geopolitical drivers. The broader outlook for both precious metals remains meaningfully bullish, with haven flows likely to dominate amid ongoing geopolitical developments.
On the daily charts, gold may face resistance around $4,655 on the ascending trendline formed by joining the highs of Oct 27, Nov 13 and Dec 26, 2025. Support lies at the psychological level of $4,500. Silver is trading at an all-time high, having crossed $84.40 in the Asian session today. Silver may face resistance around $85, while support is seen at Friday’s high of $80.50.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The U.S. dollar has reversed sharply after two weeks of gains and is now back below the 99 handle, down around 0.32% near 98.89. The pullback follows reports that U.S. federal prosecutors are probing Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve building renovations. The episode has revived concerns that political pressure from President Donald Trump could undermine the Fed’s independence, prompting investors to reassess dollar exposure. What had been a yield-supported rally has quickly given way to credibility risk.
U.S. data has added another layer of complexity. NFP rose by just 50,000 in December, below November’s revised 56,000 and below expectations. While the report keeps the door open for near-term Fed easing, it does little to support aggressive rate-cut pricing. But rather, the political overhang has dominated, overwhelming what would otherwise be a modestly dollar-positive backdrop. As a result, the nfp dollar gains have unwound quickly.
EUR/USD has benefited from the dollar’s retreat, with the pair moving higher on renewed confidence that U.S. policy will remain constrained by institutional checks. That said, upside may be limited as easing euro-area inflation dampens expectations for further ECB tightening. In contrast, USD/JPY hit around a one-year high today and remains elevated despite the softer dollar tone, supported by rising Japanese yield expectations tied to snap election speculation and further fiscal expansion.
On the technical front, the dollar is taking support from its 200-day SMA of 98.824. If the index breaks below, the next support lies at the confluence of the 9-day and 100-day SMA of 98.6. Resistance lies at the psychological level of 99. The EURUSD pair has reversed its two weeks of losses and is up 0.43%, at around 1.1684. Support lies at 50-day SMA of 1.1653. Resistance lies at 1.1703, a previous support turned resistance.
- Crude Oil
Oil prices are supported by protests in Iran, raising fears that oil supplies from the OPEC country could be disrupted. There have even been calls for oil workers to stop working, which could put about 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports at risk. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned he may intervene if force is used against protesters and is expected to meet his advisers to discuss options on Iran. A U.S. intervention in the matter could fuel further geopolitical tensions, adding to the bullish momentum.
However, the price gains appear limited as Venezuela is expected to restart oil exports. Trump said last week that the Venezuelan government is expected to hand over up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. This has triggered a rush among oil companies to find tankers and organise shipments from Venezuela’s damaged ports.
From a technical perspective, WTI is trading above 9 and 21 SMA. Daily RSI is at 68, indicating strong buying momentum building up. On the 1-hour chart, immediate support is at $58.8 followed by $57.7 which coincides with the 200 SMA and 8th Jan 2026 breakout. Resistance is seen at $59.8, followed by $60.2. Brent has immediate support at $62.6 and resistance is at $63.5 on the 1-hour chart.
