- US Markets
The SPX Index is up by about 0.355 today and is currently at $6,967.
From a fundamental stance, the US market gained strength from the higher-than-expected Durable Goods Orders, which suggested strong consumption. Durable Goods Order MoM rose 5.3% in November against the 3.1% consensus. Consequently, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved from -11.2 to -1.2, compared to the analyst consensus of -6. Looking ahead to the day, CB consumer confidence is expected to garner attention, with investors seeking follow-through on yesterday’s trend. Furthermore, earnings from Northrop Grumman, Seagate, Invesco and American Airlines are expected to garner attention today. On the uncertainty front, the US government could shut down again if a funding deal isn’t reached by the Friday deadline. Currently, Polymarket is pricing in a near-80 % probability of a government shutdown.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX index is revisiting its resistance at $6,962- $6,996. Given the current strength in the RSI and bullish crossovers of the 8- and 21-day EMAs, a bullish stance is expected today. Attractive long entries emerge at the support at $6,940, according to the hourly chart.
- Crude Oil
Oil edged lower yesterday and is continuing to decline in today’s session, amid growing concerns about a supply glut. Despite these headwinds, oil had started the year with some gains driven by geopolitical concerns. Trump’s decision to send naval assets to the Middle East recently added a geopolitical risk premium to prices. Since then, a major winter storm has curtailed production and operations at numerous plants, including ExxonMobil’s Baytown mega-refinery. Even Chevron and Anadarko reported issues with natural gas production. The storm’s impact has been widespread, from East Houston’s industrial corridor and the Texas Coast to Illinois, where refineries are designed to withstand cold weather. Preliminary reports estimate production to be down by about 1 million barrels a day.
However, this alone is not enough to tip the scales in favour of a more balanced oil market. The IEA projects a substantial surplus of 3.7-4 mbpd over H1’2026, as non-OPEC production remains strong. Even the EIA sees supply exceeding demand by over 2.8 mbpd in 2026, with the surplus peaking over 3.5 mbpd in Q1’2026. Recently, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) restored an offshore mooring, easing immediate supply disruption risks along a key Black Sea export route that carries most of Kazakhstan’s crude shipments.
Brent is down 0.52% at $65.41, with 9-SMA support at $64.76 on the day chart, a level that roughly aligns with the highs in late October and mid-November. It could face immediate resistance at $65.92, followed by a second resistance level around $66.45. WTI is down 0.49% at $60.55, with immediate support at $60.03, and potential resistance at around $61.35.
- US Dollar Index
The U.S. dollar index has ticked up to 97.11 in early trading Tuesday, consolidating at the lows after Monday’s steep selloff ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. The greenback faces a perfect storm of negative catalysts.
Friday’s New York Fed “rate check” on spot USD/JPY rates was interpreted by the market as Treasury-sanctioned support for dollar weakness, the first sign of coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention since March 2011. According to analysts, this was a much stronger intervention signal than indicated by the BoJ in 2022 or 2024 given the U.S. involvement, and it set off a disorderly unwind in the short-yen trade that has since spread into selling pressure on the greenback against all G-10 currencies.
Adding to the volatility, the Fed chair succession risk, with President Trump anticipated to announce a replacement for Jerome Powell as soon as this week. Government shutdown risk is rising, as Senate Democrats threaten to block funding in response to last week’s shooting at an ICE facility in Minneapolis.
The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday with 97% certainty; this, however, is already priced in. What matters will be Fed Chair Powell’s forward guidance.
Markets are pricing 50bp of cuts for 2026, while the Fed’s dots in December signalled just 25bp of easing; this divergence will have to be addressed. If Powell emphasises data dependence and patience, markets will take it as dovish confirmation that cuts are coming; if he acknowledges risks to growth, or hints at coordinated policy, the dollar will sell off further.
On the EUR/USD chart, immediate resistance sits at 1.1910, with a breakout opening room toward 1.1949–1.2000, while nearby support is clustered at 1.1833 and deeper structural support at 1.1802, which mark a 4H swing highs and lows.
- Gold and Silver
Gold rose modestly by 0.44%, while silver saw a sharp move. Silver hit an all-time high of $117 before closing at $103 yesterday. In early trading, silver moved up to $110.38.
On the fundamental side, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices. As the US becomes more isolated from other nations, confidence in the US dollar is weakening. Yesterday, Trump threatened tariffs on South Korea after it failed to meet the terms of a tariff deal. At the same time, renewed concerns about possible US intervention in the Middle East have kept markets on edge. There are also rising expectations that the US may intervene to support the Japanese yen, which has further weakened the dollar and supported gold prices. Trump’s threats toward Europe have also pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.
Silver’s rally, however, goes beyond geopolitics. Demand is rising mainly due to strong buying from China. There is an arbitrage situation in the Chinese market. While global spot silver prices are around $110, prices in Shanghai are close to $125. This roughly 13% premium is driven by speculation that the Chinese government may tighten licensing rules, prompting buyers to act before any changes. Data also shows that China’s 2025 silver exports have reached a 16-year high. This suggests strong underlying demand, likely from electronics, solar panels, and EVs. In addition, strong demand from India may also be adding to the rally in Chinese markets.
In the options market, silver ETF (SLV) volatility surged to 124% yesterday before easing to around 100% this morning. Something interesting is happening in gold volatility. Gold ETF (GLD) volatility has risen to around 32%, a level last seen in October, just before the sharp correction on 17 October.
On a technical level, gold is trading above its 9, 21, 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs. Resistance is seen at $5,100, yesterday’s high. A break above this level could lead to further upside toward $5,200. On the downside, the 4-hour chart shows support near $5,009. A break below this level could open the door to $4,898.
For silver, resistance is seen at $117, the high reached yesterday. A break above this level could trigger further bullish momentum toward $120. On the downside, support is seen at the psychological level of $100.
