- US MarketsÂ
Technology is once again doing the heavy lifting. Nasdaq is firmer after reports that SoftBank could invest as much as $30 billion more into OpenAI. With megacap earnings about to kick off, money is moving back into names that investors feel can actually deliver. Semiconductors and data-center stocks continue to lead, keeping confidence in the AI spending story intact. Volatility remains calm and dips are getting bought. Market breadth has narrowed a bit, but investors don’t seem too worried as long as the big tech names keep showing up with solid numbers and guidance. On the macro side, Treasuries are slightly firmer, with the 10-year yield sitting around 4.23% ahead of the Fed decision. The Fed is expected to stay put and stick to a data-driven message. The softer dollar is also in focus; it’s helping risk assets in the short term, even if it raises bigger questions down the line.
Bottom line, US markets are holding up well. There’s plenty of headline risk, but momentum is still on the market’s side, with tech and AI optimism keeping the overall tone constructive. Technically, SPX is trading at an all-time high. Resistance is seen at $7,024 (hourly pivot) and $7,064 (daily pivot). Support levels are seen at $6,980 (yesterday’s low), followed by $6,920 (21SMA).
- Gold & SilverÂ
Geopolitical risks remain high, with new trade tensions between the US, NATO allies, and Canada, stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and ongoing tariff uncertainty. These issues have strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic shocks, bond market swings, and inflation. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in years, increasing concerns about the economy.
Strong demand is still supporting gold prices, driven by steady central bank buying and more investors choosing non-dollar assets. Although speculation has grown and short-term price drops are possible due to overbought conditions, the overall trend remains positive. As markets wait for updates from the FOMC meeting and expect more rate cuts through 2026, investors must brace for high volatility in bullion prices. However, any short-term dip in gold is likely to be seen as an opportunity to buy, not a sign of a lasting decline.
From a technical perspective, gold could face resistance near $5,300 and find support around $5,150. Silver has surged by over 60% in January alone, reaching record highs of $117.74. For silver, the next resistance is likely near $120, with support around $110.
- Crude OilÂ
Geopolitical risk is also adding a premium. The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier group in the Middle East, alongside renewed rhetoric from President Donald Trump regarding Iran, has increased uncertainty around regional stability. Traders are factoring in the possibility of disruptions, even as broader supply forecasts still point to a surplus later this year.
A weaker U.S. dollar is providing an additional tailwind. The recent slide in the greenback has boosted the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities, helping oil hold near a four-month high. Market structure supports this view, with prompt spreads in both Brent and WTI widening into bullish backwardation, a signal of tighter near-term supply.
Positioning data shows that speculative net longs in WTI futures have fallen sharply from mid-2024 highs but have stabilized since December, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. Traders will look for EIA crude inventory report that will come out later today.
Technically, WTI is now trading above its 200-day SMA after smashing past the ascending trendline formed on the 4 hour chart that has capped highs since last Friday. Resistance lies at $63.85. On the flip side, first support lies at $60.87, with next support at 100-day SMA of $60.27. For Brent, resistance lies at $68.16 whereas support lies at 200-day SMA of $65.58.
- US Dollar Index Â
Traders are softening their short bets ahead of the FOMC rate decision later today. The consensus is a rate hold, which might provide a near-term floor for the dollar. Fed chair Jerome Powell’s comments from the post-meeting conference will provide cues about monetary policy and the interest rate path forward amid bets for at least two more rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, ongoing attempts from the Trump administration to remove key Fed officials threaten its independence. Also, President Trump said yesterday that he will announce his pick for the new Fed chair soon, and the interest rates will fall under new leadership. These developments and erratic policymaking don’t bode well for the dollar.
The DXY’s weakness is likely to continue in the short term, with resistance test at the 96.25-96.30 zone. It is trading below all key SMA levels. Yesterday’s low of 95.55 forms the first support level, followed by 95.21. The EUR/USD pair maintains an upside bias, trading around 1.199, close to its five-year peak and key threshold of 1.200. It also broke its 52-week high of 1.192 and rallied to 1.208 before facing resistance. Support might appear at 1.190 (Monday’s high) with resistance test likely at 1.208 (Yesterday’s high). For now, EUR/USD remains driven far more by developments in the US than in the euro area.
