- US Markets
The S&P 500 index was up 0.47% in Monday’s session. U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday morning after two consecutive sessions of gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edging slightly lower.
The broader market remains supported by a strong rebound in tech stocks, which extended last Friday’s comeback and eased concerns after last week’s sell-off tied to software and mega-cap names. The S&P 500 has reclaimed levels above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, after dipping below them last week. This indicates bullish momentum, even if near-term trading could stay choppy and selective.
Attention now turns to corporate earnings, with Coca-Cola reporting before the open alongside results from Hasbro and Spotify, while macro focus centres on retail sales data today, followed by the key jobs report on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.
From a technical perspective, the index is trading above the 9 and 21 SMA on the daily chart. The RSI is around 55, indicating that strong bullish momentum is building after last week’s pullback. On the 4-hour chart, immediate support is at $6,884 (100 SMA), followed by $6,801 (200 SMA). Immediate resistance is at the all-time high level of $7,002. A break above this level could send the index to $7,113, which is the 1.618 level on the Fibonacci extension connecting the low of 20 Jan, the high of 28 Jan, and the low of 5 Feb.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply by 0.83% on Monday, with Tuesday’s Asian session seeing relatively muted trading. The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.85% at the same time, breaking above the 1.19 level, with today’s session seeing a slight decline of 0.10%.
The dollar has faced intense pressure after Chinese regulators urged domestic financial institutions to reduce US Treasury holdings in order to reduce concentration risks and exposure to uncertain US economic policies. On top of that, the JPY has continued to take flows away from the USD after Japan’s snap election over the weekend removed political uncertainty and renewed confidence in BoJ rate hikes. Traders will shift their focus to today’s retail sales data, along with awaiting the delayed January US employment report and upcoming CPI data due later in the week, expected to give insights into economic conditions and the timing of potential rate easing.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar’s decline continues after creating a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart on Friday, confirming its short-term bearish market structure by trading under the 9- and 21-SMA levels. Potential near-term support might lie near the lows of 1st July and 17th September 2025, around the 96.377 and 96.218 levels, respectively. An upside for the index could be seen only if the potential resistance level around 97.294 from the 9-day SMA is broken. For the EUR/USD pair, yesterday’s rise has led the pair above the 9-day SMA, confirming a strong market structure, with potential resistance around the 1.1974 levels from the highs of 30th Jan.
- Crude Oil
Crude oil prices gained ground in yesterday’s session after initial declines. The commodity is holding steady in today’s session as uncertainty persists about the outcome of the ongoing nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. Oil has risen by more than 2% over the past two sessions, supported by geopolitical risk premiums. Washington has cautioned its vessels to keep a distance from the Strait of Hormuz – a critical route for Middle Eastern oil flows to major global destinations, particularly Asia. Although long-term fundamentals point to a supply glut, short-term flare-ups in geopolitical risk have led to a 10% YTD advance in crude oil. Although Washington and Tehran had preliminary discussions in Oman last week, the presence of American vessels implies that the risk of military action against Iran cannot be ruled out. Moreover, yesterday, American forces chased an oil tanker from the Caribbean to the Indian Ocean, believing it to be Venezuela-linked. This signals America’s strict crackdown on the potential export of sanctioned barrels.
Brent is down 0.03% at $69.11. If talks with Tehran reach a deadlock, Brent could surge to $70.57, and a break above this level could eventually result in a retest of $75, which coincides with the early-June 2025 highs. On the flip side, Brent has potential support at the 50-week SMA at $65.81, which coincides with the 38.2% Fib retracement level after connecting the mid-December low to the late-January high. WTI is down 0.1% at $64.37, with immediate 50-week SMA support at $62.32 and potential resistance at $66.30.
- Gold and Silver
The momentum that fueled precious metals’ rise over the past two sessions is slowing. Gold is trading down 0.6%, still holding the key $5,000 level. Silver is down 2.2% today, holding above $80, amid possible profit-taking ahead of key economic data releases.
Investors are trading cautiously ahead of the U.S. Retail sales data release today. Markets are expecting a slowdown in retail spending in December. This adds to the existing worries surrounding the labour markets, especially after National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett hinted at a softer NFP print on Wednesday. It looks like confirmation of previously released private data showing a slowdown in job growth. These softer numbers could bolster expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates for the first time this year in June. All these fundamentals point to a U.S. dollar that will likely be on the defensive. This environment bodes well for non-yielding real assets like gold and silver.
Technically, gold is steadily above the 9-day SMA at $4,963, which could serve as a potential support level. The next support is likely around the 21-SMA, close to $4,900. The RSI is around 57 (neutral), indicating balanced momentum. A resistance test could appear around the $5,100-$5,200 zone. So with the overall structure remaining constructive, pullbacks will remain contained as long as the price holds above the faster average and $5000 mark.
Silver looks to hold the 50-day SMA at $78. Next support is likely around the $70 zone. It is still trading below the 9- and 20-day SMA levels at $85 and $92, which could act as potential resistance areas.
