- US Markets
US equities are trading lower this morning with SPX down by – 0.7% as investors react to renewed global uncertainties arising from the US SCOTUS ruling on Trump tariffs. President Trump’s indication that global tariffs could potentially increase from 10% toward 15% has brought trade tensions back into focus, tempering the optimism seen after the recent Supreme Court tariff ruling. Markets are now reassessing the economic impact of higher import costs, possible retaliation from trade partners, and the broader implications for global growth.
Despite the pullback, the move appears more like caution than outright risk aversion. Equity markets had recently been supported by strong AI-driven earnings expectations, stable financial conditions, and relatively contained volatility. However, policy unpredictability tends to slow corporate decision-making, which is why investors are turning slightly defensive in the near term. Technology remains the key swing factor. Upcoming earnings, especially from Nvidia, Coreweave, Snowflake, Dell and other AI-linked companies — will likely determine whether the broader market can maintain its upward momentum. The AI capex story remains intact structurally, but valuations and expectations are elevated, increasing the risk of short-term volatility around results. On the macro side, Treasury yields are relatively steady around the 4.05–4.10% zone, suggesting bond markets are not yet pricing a major growth shock. The US dollar has softened modestly, which is providing some cushion for risk assets globally but also reflecting lingering uncertainty around US fiscal and trade policy.
Technically, SPX is trading at $6,860 with 100-SMA at $6,822 expected to provide a near-term support, with next support at $6,775 (last week’s low). Resistance is seen at 50-SMA at $6,896 , followed by 21-SMA at $6,912. Near-term pressure on US equities reflects tariff uncertainty and policy noise rather than a clear shift in trend. If earnings remain supportive and macro data hold steady, dips are likely to attract buyers, though volatility could stay elevated in the short term.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI crude rallied 5.77% last week, but the move is already losing steam, with prices slipping around 0.50% on Friday as weaker US growth data weighed on demand sentiment. US Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4%, reinforcing concerns that economic momentum is slowing and that energy demand could soften heading into 2026. The ongoing pullback, including Friday’s decline, also reflects markets dialing back the earlier risk premium, as expectations grow that any US military response could be more limited than initially feared, or that a no-attack scenario is increasingly being priced in.
WTI is extending its pullback in early Monday trade, down around 0.88% at $65.88, as traders unwind the geopolitical risk premium built ahead of the weekend. Recent US military activity had lifted prices on fears of potential tensions with Iran, but with no immediate escalation, risk appetite is fading, and profit-taking is setting in. With US–Iran talks scheduled for Thursday, any sign of diplomatic progress could further compress the risk premium, leaving prices exposed to further downside.
Adding to the pressure, sentiment is being weighed by renewed demand concerns after President Donald Trump signalled plans to raise global tariffs to 15%, following the Supreme Court’s rejection of reciprocal tariffs. The prospect of fresh trade frictions is reviving fears around global growth, which could further cap oil demand. With growth risks rising and the risk premium easing, WTI looks vulnerable to further downside in the near term.
From a technical perspective, WTI may test support near the $65.23 level in the near term. A hold above this zone could help prices stabilise, while a clean break below may open the door for a deeper pullback. It trades above its key moving averages: the 9 Day SMA at $64.57 and the 50 Day SMA at 60.80, which can act as further support levels for WTI. Immediate resistance is held at the last week’s high of $67.19, followed by the $71.30 level. Brent is currently trading at $75.56. Immediate resistance lies at last week’s high at 71.88, and support at the 9 Day SMA at the $69.10 level.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold registered three back-to-back weekly gains and is up 0.56% today at $5,152. The risk of a flare-up in geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran if nuclear talks don’t go well, alongside investor wariness toward currencies and sovereign bonds, has contributed to gold’s recent uptick. However, another catalyst emerged after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Trump retaliated on Saturday with a new 10% global levy and threatened to raise it to 15% to preserve protectionist measures. This sent the dollar lower, thereby providing support to gold. The other driving factors, like central bank purchases, sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs, and the prospect of further monetary easing, remain intact. Despite gold’s decline in late January, ETF holdings proved resilient, rising in six of the past eight weeks. These factors are keeping gold well anchored.
Meanwhile, silver is up 2.67% at $86.94, following an impressive 9.42% jump last week that brought it back above the 50-day SMA on the day chart. Recent weakness in macroeconomic data, followed by the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, has sparked safe-haven demand and an uptick in inflows into silver ETFs. Silver has immediate support at $85.26, followed by 50-SMA support at $81.24. A sustained close above $92 could fuel upside momentum and eventually push the metal towards $95 and $105.
Gold, currently trading at $5,152, has immediate support at $5,100, roughly aligning with the mid-February peaks. The next support zone lies between $4,940 and $4,970. The 5-period RSI on the day chart is at 52.84, which signals no exhaustion yet as gold is not yet overbought. Gold could encounter initial resistance at $5,235, with the next resistance around $5,410.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. Dollar Index is trading 0.3% lower in today’s session, extending Friday’s losses as it trades near 97.50, as renewed trade uncertainty weighs on sentiment. The dollar is under pressure from the fallout of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s emergency tariff powers, a decision that has reopened questions around U.S. trade policy and growth.
The ruling, followed by Trump’s pledge to pursue a 15% global tariff under alternative statutes, has brought back the policy uncertainty that pressured the dollar last year. As a result, demand for precious metals has increased, and investors are adding a risk premium to U.S. assets, which usually weakens the greenback. Meanwhile, rolling back tariffs is expected to lower inflation over time. Accounting for exemptions and other trade deals, the new tariff brings the average effective U.S. tariff rate just slightly lower than where it was before the ruling. The Yale Budget Lab estimates it is now at 13.7%, compared with 16% before the ruling. This could lead to lower interest rate expectations and further reduce the dollar’s yield appeal.
Economic data has added to the cautious tone. A sharp slowdown in U.S. growth in Q4, alongside sticky core PCE inflation, complicates the Fed’s policy outlook. While broader risk aversion may limit sharp losses, fundamentals and technicals are aligning to keep the DXY on a softer footing today. Technically, the DXY is trading below its 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, which reinforces downside risks. The index could find support around its 20-day SMA at 97.15, while resistance lies around 97.95.
