- U.S. Markets
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by almost 1% in yesterday’s session as concerns about the impact of AI hit financial and software companies. A research by Citrini laid out the potential risks AI could pose for the global economy and disrupt payment, delivery, and software companies. This triggered a sector-wide pullback in delivery companies and financials, with companies like DoorDash, American Express, and Mastercard leading the move. Further, software companies like IBM fell by almost 13%, marking their biggest fall since October 2000. This came after Anthropic mentioned that Claude Code can help modernise COBOL, a programming language mainly run on IBM computers. Cybersecurity companies also fell after Anthropic introduced a new security feature that scans codebases for vulnerabilities. Besides the AI-related worries, Trump’s decision to impose a new tariff on US imports has led to confusion in global trade, especially after the Supreme Court invalidated the international tariffs imposed last year. In today’s session, the indices remain marginally up. Investors will closely watch Trump’s State of the Union address, where affordability and tariffs are likely to be the key themes. NVIDIA’s earnings on Wednesday will also be critical for gauging market direction further.
Technically, the S&P index is trading at $6,854, well below its 21-day SMA of $6,900. It is forming a rising wedge pattern connecting the highs of $6895, $6972, and $7002; and the lows of $6508, $6767, and $6820, respectively. The daily RSI is also sideways, indicating a lack of clear momentum. The market breadth indicates that the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average fell from 56% at last week’s close to 44% in yesterday’s session. The index finds support at the 100-day SMA level of $6,830. A close below this level may signal further bearishness in the index. Conversely, the index must cross above its 21-day SMA at $6,900 to signal bullishness in the near term.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index is trading 0.15% higher in today’s session, hovering around 97.82 after two sessions of losses, as support emerges from Fed commentary and renewed weakness in the yen. Near-term sentiment has improved following remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signalled that any decision on a March rate cut will be dependent on February labour numbers. With the CME FedWatch tool pricing a 94.45% probability of a rate hold in March, Waller’s comments have helped temper expectations of near-term easing and lent the dollar modest support.
USD/JPY is rising after reports said U.S. authorities led January FX rate checks, not Tokyo. This suggests Japanese officials might be allowing a weaker yen. With no strong statements from Japan and added pressure from China’s export controls on Japanese companies, the yen remains weak, which is helping support the greenback.
However, ongoing trade uncertainty could limit gains for the dollar. New tariff threats and possible national-security tariffs are making the global outlook less clear and could slow investment in U.S. assets. With steady yields and cautious Fed comments, the Dollar Index still has a mildly positive near-term outlook, but gains are likely to be slow. On the daily charts, DXY is above its 20-day SMA at 97.27. Support may be found near yesterday’s low at 97.35, with resistance around 98.07, a previously tested level.
- Crude Oil
WTI was largely flat in the previous session, slipping just 0.09%, but momentum has turned positive today with prices up around 0.85% near $66.99, hovering close to a six-month high. Buyers are stepping back in as markets keep a close watch on the latest round of US–Iran talks, with any sign of escalation likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.
Positioning in Brent options also points to a bullish bias. Call options dominated activity, with around 283,000 calls traded versus roughly 153,000 puts as of Friday’s close. Most of the volume was concentrated in April, and May strikes between $75 and $90, with some interest stretching out to $100. Out of the money calls at $90 and above gained value, while downside puts softened reflecting expectations for higher prices. This skew in positioning suggests traders are still leaning toward further upside as the market continues to price in the risk of escalation involving Iran and potential disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global crude supply.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent supply disruptions have provided support to crude prices in recent weeks, offsetting concerns about a potential surplus later this year. At the same time, renewed trade risks are back in focus, with President Trump moving to introduce fresh tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down several of his earlier global levies, a factor that could add volatility but has so far not derailed the bullish tone in oil.
Technically, WTI has an immediate support at its 9 Day SMA at $64.86, followed by $61.92 (last week’s low). Immediate resistance is at $67.41 (yesterday’s high), followed by the $71.30 level. Brent is currently trading at $71.55, up 0.68% is today’s session. Immediate support is at the 9 Day SMA at $69.41, and resistance is at the $72.72 level.
- Gold and Silver
After four back-to-back gains, gold slipped lower by 0.88% to $5,183 amid a spate of profit-booking. Safe-haven demand has kept the precious metal well-anchored, amid uncertainty over Washington-Tehran nuclear talks, the Supreme Court’s verdict against Trump’s tariffs, and Trump’s subsequent threat to raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%. This pressured the U.S. Dollar, thereby helping gold gain a leg up. Tariff revenues have come under threat, bringing the U.S. deficit and trade balance into focus. The Supreme Court’s ruling has also introduced fresh uncertainty around several trade agreements between the U.S. and its key partners. The European Union might pause ratification of its agreement with Washington until there is more clarity on the implications of the decision. Indian officials are expected to defer a planned visit to the U.S., and a senior member of Japan’s ruling party described the evolving situation as “a real mess,” underscoring the broader unease among US allies. This uncertainty is contributing to safe-haven demand for precious metals. Meanwhile, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and wariness about currencies and sovereign bonds are supporting gold.
Silver also registered four consecutive daily gains and is holding steady at around $88.40, up 0.23% for the day. Tariff jitters and U.S.-Iran concerns are also supporting silver. Its dual role as an industrial metal and a defensive asset has drawn investors amid rising global uncertainty. Silver has immediate support around $85.26, roughly coinciding with the mid-February peak. The next support is around the 50-day SMA at $81.80. It could encounter resistance in the $90.40-$93.87 range.
Gold, trading at $5,183, has immediate support at $5,100, roughly aligning with the mid-February peak and near yesterday’s intraday swing low. A Fibonacci retracement connecting the low of late-October 2025 with the high of late-January 2026 indicates the presence of 38.2% support at $4,940. Sustained moves above yesterday’s intraday high of $5,237 can potentially pave the way for a surge up to $5,300.
