- U.S. MarketsÂ
The S&P 500 recovered in yesterday’s session, increasing by 0.6% after Anthropic announced that Claude will focus on forming partnerships in the software and services sectors instead of acting as a replacement. It calmed down concerns, emphasising that Claude integrates rather than displaces existing systems. Further, AMD also rose by 8.8% after Meta revealed a multiyear agreement to deploy 6GW of AMD’s GPUs across its data centres. In today’s session, the index has held steady as investors closely await earnings from the AI giant, Nvidia. This will be critical for gauging market direction in the week ahead, as it’s a make-or-break event. Industry analysts project Nvidia’s revenue to total $66.1 billion, a 68% increase from the previous year, with its profit forecast to rise by more than 70%. NVIDIA’s stock price and market value have been volatile, with the company’s valuation transforming from less than $400 billion in 2022 to nearly $4.7 trillion amidst phenomenal growth in AI. The implied volatility related to earnings is 5%, and the CEO’s commentary will serve as a critical health check on AI spending.
The sector rotation for the week indicates Energy and Materials remain the strongest sectors. Moreover, the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors also show strength amidst many risks that still linger over the market, such as private credit weakness, geopolitical risks and tariff-related uncertainty.
Technically, the index is trading at $6893, above its 9-day SMA level of $6,864. On the daily charts, it is forming a rising wedge pattern connecting the highs of $6895, $6972, and $7,002; and the lows of $6,508, $6,767, and $6,820, respectively. Yesterday, it bounced back from the lower trendline support in the rising wedge at $6,815. The 4-hour timeframe indicates the market has been broadly rangebound since the middle of the month. If the index crosses and closes above the 21-day SMA level of $6,900, it will be considered bullish. Otherwise, the index may find support at $6,840, followed by the lower trendline of the rising wedge.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI crude eased 0.33% in the previous session after briefly testing highs near $67.27, closing around $66.20 as near-term concerns over inventories and trade uncertainty led to some profit-taking. Despite the mild pullback, oil prices are still trading near six month highs, currently at $66.20, with the broader tone remaining constructive as geopolitical risks continue to underpin the market.
Investor focus remains on rising tensions between the US and Iran, with supply disruption risks keeping a firm risk premium in crude ahead of nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. Any deterioration in diplomatic signals or signs of escalation could quickly tighten sentiment around supply and push prices higher.
Markets are also bracing for the EIA inventory report due later today. A larger than expected draw in US crude stocks would reinforce the bullish narrative by pointing to resilient demand and tighter balances, potentially giving WTI fresh upside momentum. While a surprise build could trigger short-term volatility, the underlying support from geopolitical risk and still-tight supply expectations keeps the near-term bias tilted to the upside.
Technically, WTI crude is trading within a well defined ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a sustained uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. For the intraday trading, immediate support is seen at the 9 Day SMA at $65.12, followed by $64.12 (17th Feb high). Immediate resistance is seen at $67.41 (current week’s high), followed by $71.45 (July month’s high). Brent is currently trading at $70.92, down by 0.14%. Immediate resistance is at $71.87, yesterday’s high, and support is at $69.75 (9 Day SMA).
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.2% yesterday and is facing a slight pullback today, trading near 97.66 (-0.23%). The index held a soft tone after President Trump’s latest remarks revived trade-related uncertainty. The greenback has struggled to gain traction as markets consider the impact of new tariff threats. President Trump warned of higher duties on countries that do not follow existing trade deals, after the Supreme Court ruled against earlier emergency tariffs. A 10% global tariff, with talk of raising it to 15%, has made investors cautious and limited the dollar’s short-term strength.
Fed commentary has provided some support to the greenback. Boston Fed President Collins and Richmond Fed President Barkin both suggested that policy is well positioned, reinforcing the case for holding rates steady and pushing back against expectations of imminent rate cuts. Further guidance from Fed speakers later this week could provide direction to the index, while Friday’s U.S. PPI data remains the key macro risk for the week.
The yen remains volatile following reports that Prime Minister Takaichi is hesitant to pursue further BOJ rate hikes, leaving traders less certain about a tighter monetary policy in the near-term. The EUR/USD pair is stable near 1.180 as market participants monitor U.S. trade policy developments and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming updates. Technically, the DXY is trading below its 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages. The 20-day SMA at 97.34 is providing support, while the 50-day SMA at 97.93 may serve as immediate resistance. For EUR/USD, resistance lies at 1.183, with support at 1.177.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold and silver have both gained ground after the late-January selloff. However, ETF positioning suggests gold’s rebound is on firmer footing. Global holdings in gold-backed ETFs have remained largely resilient through February, with only one week of modest outflows. Total holdings now sit less than 10 tonnes below the multi-year peak reached at the end of last month, underscoring steady institutional participation. Silver ETF holdings have been more volatile and recently slipped to their lowest level since mid-November, including a 168-ton contraction on Monday alone. But both metals remain well-supported by several factors.
Gold is up 0.84% at $5,187, supported by haven demand amid tariff uncertainty and ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. This has weakened the dollar, helping the yellow metal recover over half the losses incurred late last month. Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for a while, noting that the labour market has shown signs of improvement and inflation risks have yet to fully ease. Even so, precious metals have continued to push higher, suggesting that broader structural and macro drivers behind the rally remain firmly in place. Gold has support around $5,100, and potential resistance around the last two sessions’ intraday high of $5,250.
Silver is up 3.93% at $90.57, undeterred by the recent choppiness in ETF flows. Safe-haven demand and silver’s persistent deficit are supporting the metal. Silver is up today, likely because markets are absorbing tariff uncertainty without a broad risk-off response. Growth-linked and cyclical assets — such as industrials, clean energy and China-sensitive stocks — are holding up, signalling that investors are not pricing a sharp hit to industrial demand. Silver has immediate support around $88.35, followed by the next support zone between $83.75–$85.26, which marks the 2025 record pivot area — a prior breakout level. It could encounter resistance in the $92.20-$93.87 range.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 624.50
22 Carat – AED 578.25
21 Carat – AED 554.50
18 Carat – AED 475.25
