- U.S. MarketsÂ
In yesterday’s session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by nearly 1%, driven by optimism ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which make up 8% of the S&P 500. The rise was mainly fueled by the technology sector. NVIDIA’s earnings, which serve as a benchmark of the AI trade, were reported yesterday. Their fourth-quarter revenue increased to $68.1 billion and profit to $1.62 per share, significantly beating analyst estimates of $65.9 billion and $1.53 per share. The first-quarter revenue guidance came in at $78 billion, well above analysts’ $72.8 billion estimate. However, Wall Street was disappointed by the lack of details on the future outlook. Investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of rapid AI sales growth, seeking greater reassurance that the trend will continue. This has led to a muted reaction from Nvidia, with its shares marginally higher in after-hours trading. In today’s session, the index remains down by 0.3% as Trump is expected to sign a directive in the coming days to raise his global tariffs to 15%. A 10% worldwide levy already took effect on Tuesday. The fear-and-greed index has moved into the neutral zone at 46. Thus, today’s session remains critical to determining whether the index rebound will hold and create new highs.
Technically, the index is trading at $6,943 and has crossed above the 9 and 21-day SMA levels of $6,885 and $6,900, respectively. The daily RSI is also trending upwards above 50. On the 4-hour chart, it has broken above the range of $6,780-$6,900 range, which it has been consolidating since mid-February. On the daily charts, it is forming a rising wedge pattern connecting the highs of $6,895, $6,972, and $7,002; and the lows of $6,508, $6,767, and $6,820, respectively. The next critical level to cross remains at $6980, followed by the upper trendline of the rising wedge at $7,015, which will reinforce the bullish stance. Conversely, the index may find support at the 9 and 21-day SMA levels.
- Crude OilÂ
WTI crude fell 0.77% in the previous session due to some profit booking and a build in US crude inventories. However, prices still managed to close above the 9-day SMA, which keeps the short-term trend positive. In early Asian trade today, WTI is trading flat near $65.67 as markets continue to track tensions between the US and Iran.
Current price action shows that crude remains very sensitive to any news around key shipping routes. Even small risks or concerns around major sea routes can quickly affect market sentiment. Oil prices usually move ahead of actual supply disruptions, as traders price in risks before they show up in the data. The Strait of Hormuz is a good example of how just the fear of disruption can change market positioning. Currently, crude is already pricing in the risk of shipping disruptions and higher insurance costs, even though this has not yet shown up clearly in tanker rates or inventory data. The market is reacting to what could happen, rather than what has already happened. The recent strength in crude suggests traders are less comfortable holding large short positions while shipping risks remain unresolved. This sets up a market where dips are likely to be bought quickly, while further upside will need fresh news or confirmation from physical market data. All eyes are on the US–Iran nuclear talks later today, as any escalation in tensions could quickly add a new risk premium to oil prices.
On the technical side, WTI faces immediate resistance at $67.41, which is this week’s high, followed by $71.45, the July high. Key support is at the 200-day SMA near $62.95, followed by last week’s low at $61.92. Brent is currently trading at $70.68, down 0.20%. Resistance is at $72.04, this week’s high, while support stands at $66.34, last week’s low.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.25% yesterday and is extending losses for a second straight session today, trading near 97.50 (-0.1%), as renewed trade-policy uncertainty and soft momentum keep the greenback pressured.
Trade concerns are back in focus after President Trump’s State of the Union comments signalled no retreat from an aggressive tariff agenda following the Supreme Court ruling. Plans to impose new levies under alternative legal frameworks have revived the uncertainty that weighed on the dollar earlier in his second term, adding a risk premium to U.S. assets and supporting demand for precious metals. The IMF’s cautiously dovish comments have also added pressure, making it more likely that U.S. interest rates could fall over time, even though immediate Fed rate cuts remain unlikely.
The yen has strengthened from an 18-month low of 159.45 reached on January 14, on expectations that the Bank of Japan will hike rates as it battles rising inflation. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is pushing higher toward the 1.182 area, benefiting from dollar softness.
Technically, the index has struggled to regain traction after failing to sustain a break above its 50-day moving average yesterday. The 20-day SMA at 97.40 is providing support, while the 50-day SMA at 97.91 may serve as resistance. For EUR/USD, resistance lies at 1.186, with support at the 50-day SMA level of 1.177.
- Gold and SilverÂ
Gold climbed higher by nearly 6% over the previous six sessions on safe-haven demand. Tariff uncertainty is gripping the markets yet again after Trump persevered with his protectionist policies. Despite the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s tariff measures, the U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, stated that Trump is likely to raise global tariffs to 15% from 10% wherever necessary. Moreover, Washington has now targeted over 30 individuals and companies deemed to support Iranian oil or the development of ballistic missiles while imposing additional sanctions on vessels that operate as part of Iran’s shadow fleet. Furthermore, nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran have not yet yielded any material outcome, with the next round of discussion scheduled to take place in Geneva today. All these factors, in addition to central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and rate-cut expectations, have driven gold higher by close to 20% YTD. The precious metal is up 0.61% at $5,197, on the brink of surpassing $5,200. Immediate resistance could potentially be found around $5,250, while support lies near $5,100.
Silver is also being supported by safe-haven demand, with a supply deficit creating further tailwinds amid strong industrial demand. Escalating cartel violence in Mexico has heightened supply-side risk for global silver markets, as Mexico accounts for roughly a quarter of global mined output. While no widespread production shutdowns have been reported yet, sustained disruption across key mining states could tighten supply and add a risk premium to silver prices in the near term. However, inflows into silver-backed ETFs have been very choppy in recent weeks. Silver broke above the $90 threshold yesterday but is currently up 0.15% at $89.42. A Fibonacci retracement connecting the late-November 2025 low with the late-January 2026 high indicates the presence of 0.50% retracement support around $85.26, with the 50-day SMA support lying underneath at $82.84. On the intraday chart, the 5-period RSI is at 68.52, on the verge of entering overbought territory. Any corrective dips to these support levels are likely to see buying interest. On the flip side, sustained moves above $90 could pave the way for a retest of $93.87, characterised by the 38.2% retracement level. A break above this could potentially take silver to $100.
