- U.S. Markets
US equity markets delivered a volatile and strong rebound in Monday’s session as improving geopolitical sentiment boosted risk appetite across Wall Street. Markets had initially opened sharply lower as crude oil had briefly surged toward $120 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions. However, sentiment turned positive after Donald Trump suggested that the conflict with Iran could conclude sooner than expected, easing fears of prolonged geopolitical disruption. After that, oil prices subsequently retreated toward the $90 level, helping equities recover strongly and driving the market’s biggest intraday comeback in nearly a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 239 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4%, marking a powerful comeback after early-session weakness.
In the early morning session today, the S&P 500 is trading flat near $6,780, while the Nasdaq Composite is holding steady around $24,910, suggesting a pause following yesterday’s strong rally.
On the corporate front, four companies will be joining the S&P 500 as part of the quarterly rebalance before trading begins on March 23, including Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent Corp and EchoStar Corporation, a move that could drive additional institutional inflows into these names.
Looking ahead, investor focus will turn to corporate earnings, with Oracle Corporation results expected later today. Meanwhile, the recent easing in energy prices is improving overall risk sentiment. This is likely to support U.S. equities today, with markets expected to trade higher and maintain an upward trend as traders begin to price in the possibility of an earlier resolution to the Iran conflict.
Technically, SPX 500 has an immediate support at $6, 710 (last week’s low), followed by its 200 Day SMA at $6,611. Immediate resistance is at $6,812 (yesterday’s high), followed by the 100 Day SMA at $6,847, followed by the $6,901 (last week’s high).
- Crude Oil
Crude Oil has seen one of the most volatile sessions in its history, gaining more than 30% on Monday, only to close 6.72% lower by the end of the session. WTI trades around 3.83% higher during Tuesday’s Asian session, while Brent is seeing about a 3% gain. The intense swings on Monday saw Brent trade in a band of about $36, the widest range on record and the most since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led neighbouring Gulf nations to cut output, in turn raising prices for oil, natural gas and gasoil. US retail gasoline prices have risen to their highest level since August 2024. Meanwhile, yesterday’s sell-off was triggered after US President Donald Trump indicated that the war in Iran would end soon, easing concerns over the surging energy costs worldwide. Adding further headwinds was the announcement by the world’s largest economies to release about 400 million barrels of emergency crude reserves to counter the blockage of about 20% of the world’s output. As the geopolitical climate remains uncertain, intraday ranges for the commodity remain high, and the trend could be based on further updates on regional tensions.
WTI can see potential support near the $80 level, which coincides with the 200-EMA on the hourly chart and the 9-EMA on the daily chart. Below this, further selling momentum can occur. On the upside, if WTI breaks above the 21 and 50-EMA on the hourly chart near the $91 level, strong buying can continue.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The DXY index fell by 0.13% yesterday. The dollar briefly touched resistance at 99.67; however, it was unable to sustain it and closed at $98.73. The fall in the dollar was due to Trump’s comments that the Middle Eastern conflict may soon be over.
On a fundamental level, the dollar is currently being driven by risk sentiment rather than rate differentials, as observed in Bloomberg’s BECO decomposition model. Until recently, monetary policy expectations were the dominant driver of dollar strength, but the model now shows global risk sentiment has taken over as the primary factor. While President Trump’s comments may have temporarily eased the market, the underlying conflict remains unresolved. Investors and the markets await the outcome of the conflict. During times of market indecision, dollar volatility may remain elevated.
On a technical level, the dollar is trading above its 9-, 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, it faces strong resistance around $99.70, a level it failed to break on March 2 and yesterday. A move above $99.75 could open the path toward the psychological $100 level. Immediate support for the dollar lies at $98.56, which coincides with the 100-day SMA. While most indicators remain bullish, momentum appears to be losing steam as the market awaits the next round of geopolitical developments. This is reflected in the MACD, which is holding steady at 0.32, while the RSI is showing a modest decline, slipping from 59 yesterday to 56 today.
- Gold and Silver
Today, Gold climbed 0.76% to $5,177, and silver surged 2.27% to $89.
Gold rebounded after hints from US President Donald Trump that suggested easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe‐haven stress. Signs that the US–Iran standoff may be moving toward a resolution sent oil sharply lower and softened the dollar, aiding the yellow metal after weeks of volatile, liquidity‐driven selling.
Impacted by geopolitical risk, higher oil prices and sticky inflation, gold prices have suffered from dwindling expectations for aggressive rate cuts, leading to ETF outflows and investors selling gold to cover other positions in the equity market. The multi‐year buying streak by central banks, led by China, has continued to underpin prices structurally as it remains firm in its role as an alternative to the dollar‐based system.
Gold is trading at $5,177 after bouncing from the $5,000 demand zone on increasing buying conviction. A break above $5,200 would indicate that buyers are gaining control, and gold could attempt to target $5,290. Support remains at $5,090, and a firm break below the $5,000 level would hurt the broader uptrend.
Meanwhile, Silver is consolidating just below $90 on rising short‐term momentum. A break above $94 would open the upside towards $96–$97. Support sits at $85–$82.60 augmented by the 50‐day SMA, while $80 remains the key level to break the downside.
Gold Prices in the UAE
24k: AED 623.00
22k: AED 576.75
21k: AED 553.00
18k: AED 474.00
14k: AED 369.75
