- U.S. Markets
US equity markets ended Tuesday’s session slightly lower as investors remained cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 34 points (-0.1%). The Nasdaq Composite was relatively flat, edging marginally higher as strength in technology stocks helped offset broader market weakness. Sector performance was largely negative, with energy, utilities and healthcare leading declines, while technology and communication services were the only sectors that managed to close in positive territory.
On the data side, US existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, exceeding expectations of a 1.3% decline. The rise was mainly supported by mortgage rates falling below 6% for the first time since 2022, which helped improve affordability and supported housing demand.
In corporate developments, Boeing shares fell 3.2% after the company announced delays in deliveries of certain 737 MAX aircraft. In contrast, Micron Technology and Applied Materials announced a strategic partnership to develop next generation AI memory chips, sending Micron shares up 3.5% and Applied Materials up around 2%. Meanwhile, Oracle surged over 7% in after-hours trading following stronger than expected quarterly revenue and an upgraded outlook, supported by accelerating demand for AI related cloud infrastructure and data centre capacity.
Looking ahead to today’s session, the S&P 500 is trading near $6,794 and the Nasdaq around $24,992, as investors await a key inflation report due later today, which would provide further clarity on price trends and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Geopolitical developments remain in focus as the US–Iran conflict enters its 12th day, with reports suggesting that Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy corridor that transports nearly 20% of global crude oil supply. The White House has also stated that the U.S. military is preparing additional options to ensure that energy trade through the region remains uninterrupted. With energy prices declining around 3.5% today and President Trump signalling that Russian oil could flow back into the market, and the administration moving to curb further oil price spikes, the drop in energy prices is likely to support risk sentiment and act as a positive catalyst for equities in today’s session.
Technically, SPX 500 has an immediate support at $6, 710 (last week’s low), followed by its 200 Day SMA at $6,615. Immediate resistance is at $6,848 (100 Day SMA), followed by the 50 Day SMA at $6,891, followed by the $6,901 (last week’s high).
- Crude Oil
Crude Oil witnessed yet another volatile session on Tuesday, with WTI trading within the $76-$91 range, only to close 1.84% higher for the day. Wednesday’s Asian session is seeing prices decline by 3.10% for WTI, while Brent is seeing a 4.06% drop.
Market volatility has been heightened by mixed messaging from the US. The Trump administration deleted a post suggesting that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggested that Iran was planning to place explosive mines across the Strait, while drones continued to get intercepted in Gulf nations that were targeting key military and energy infrastructure, keeping tensions high and adding support to oil prices. However, Japan has shown keen support for a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves by the G-7 countries, signalling the urgency of industrialised economies to keep a lid on oil prices. The trading climate for oil largely depends on the news flow in today’s environment, with ranges remaining on the higher side.
From a technical perspective, the average trading range for WTI before the war was roughly $2, but has now increased to near $7, indicating much larger daily moves. The past 3 daily sessions have seen ranges exceeding $14, underscoring the heightened volatility. The daily chart of WTI almost printed a long-legged doji, indicating the uncertainty for prices. However, prices recovered from the 9-day EMA, which now provides potential support near the $80 mark, followed by the 21-day EMA near the $73.88 level. On the upside, buying momentum can continue if prices break above the 50-EMA on the hourly charts.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The DXY grew modestly yesterday by 0.19%.
On a fundamental level, elevated geopolitical risk continues to support the dollar. Despite today’s CPI release, markets are clearly prioritizing geopolitical developments, which remain the key driver for the dollar. Although Trump posted a slightly positive message yesterday suggesting the war could end soon, attacks have not slowed. Instead, tensions between Washington and Tehran appear to be rising. The president recently stated he is dissatisfied with Iran’s new leadership, describing it as more hardline than the previous one. This ongoing power struggle keeps risk sentiment fragile and continues to support the dollar.
Since the conflict began, the dollar has consistently outperformed other G-10 currencies during periods of sharp equity sell-offs and high risk aversion. One reason is that the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, which provides some insulation from rising energy prices compared with net importers such as the Eurozone. As long as oil prices remain elevated, the dollar is likely to stay supported.
That said, investors will increasingly shift focus to how the economy absorbs these shocks. Higher oil prices could push inflation higher and erode real incomes, particularly if the labor market weakens. This makes incoming economic data especially important.
Markets are now awaiting the CPI release. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it would strengthen the case for the Fed to keep rates on hold at the March 18 meeting, which would likely support the dollar. On the other hand, a softer reading could lift risk assets and increase expectations for rate cuts later in the year, which would weigh on the dollar.
On a technical level, the DXY is finding support at the 9-day SMA and continues to trade above the 21, 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.On the upside, resistance is seen at 99. A break above this level could push the dollar toward the next resistance at 99.10. On the downside, a move below the 9-day SMA at 98.67 may lead the dollar to test the next support at 98.56, which coincides with the 100-day SMA. Momentum indicators suggest a slight slowdown. The RSI has eased from 66 on March 1 to around 57 today, indicating moderating momentum. Similarly, the MACD remains above 1, but the momentum is gradually weakening. Overall, the technical outlook for the dollar remains bullish, although momentum may continue to slow in the absence of fresh geopolitical headlines.
- Gold and Silver
Today, Gold increased slightly by 0.20% to $5,200, while silver decreased by 0.9% to $87.40
Gold prices are edging higher as investors respond to the International Energy Agency’s plan for what could be its largest-ever release of oil reserves. The goal is to offset the supply shock from the shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil. Crude prices remain volatile, and markets are confused by mixed signals from Washington.
Inflation concerns emerged last week, as tanker traffic collapsed and major shipping firms (such as Maersk and CMA CGM) have halted transits, driving up oil prices. This reduces the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the March 17–18 meeting. Today’s February CPI release will be key; consensus expects 2.4% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. A stronger inflation print would support a higher-for-longer Fed stance.
Meanwhile, some managers have sold gold ETFs to cover margin calls, yet Asian physical demand remains firm. Global gold ETFs saw $5.3 billion in inflows in February, marking nine straight months of gains.
On the chart, gold is consolidating around $5,200, holding higher lows at $5,138 but unable to break above $5,250, while the next resistance can be seen near $5,307. Supports sit at $5,171, $5,140, and deeper at $5,067–$5,000 if the range breaks.
Silver, around $87.40, mirrors gold’s pattern with sharper moves. Holding above this level could lead to $89.30–$91.15, while losing it risks a drop toward $85–$83.20.
