- U.S. MarketsÂ
The SPX Index and NDX Index are down 0.28% each and are currently trading at $6,678 and $24,560, respectively.
From a fundamental standpoint, in yesterday’s session, US markets witnessed a positive foot led by tech after Huang said that revenue from hardware could total $1 trillion through 2027 at the GTC event. Last year, he said $500 billion. One year later, that number doubled. And he called it a floor, meaning the real number will be higher. NVDA rose a mere 1.65% and closed at $183, as the main focus remains on the energy markets. After oil industry experts warned the Trump administration that the energy crisis could worsen, the US is said to have begun talks with several countries to form a coalition to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to US and other countries’ military, the tensions could extend till autumn. Looking at VIX, the index is stabilising above the $23 level, providing room for more upside. From a data standpoint, ADP employment, the 20-year bond auction, and earnings from Lululemon, DocuSign, and OKLO are expected to garner attention today.
From a technical standpoint, both the SPX Index and the NDX Index fell after retesting the support breakdown at $6,730 and $24,710. These levels coincided with the 8-day EMA and were also major support levels for the indices since mid-December. Looking ahead, a bearish stance is expected with targets extending to $6,600 and $24,250.
- Crude Oil
Oil advanced on Tuesday amid a fresh wave of Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure around the Persian Gulf. This has increased concerns about supply disruption, especially considering a near-halt of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It has compelled oil behemoths in the Middle East to curtail production, with the UAE’s output cut deepening to 1.5 mbpd, and that of Kuwait reaching 1.3 mbpd. The conflict has impacted operations at some refineries, with production at Qatar’s liquefied natural gas plant being halted. Given the widespread disruption to crude flows in the Middle East, global fuel prices and oil transportation costs have been increasing sharply. Both the UAE and KSA are thus trying to boost oil exports via alternative routes away from the Strait of Hormuz.
Yesterday was the first time oil prices retreated in the last five sessions as America readied itself to release the first tranche of emergency reserves. However, geopolitical tensions are keeping the commodity well supported, with Brent up 2.8% for the day at $103.68 and WTI up 3.13% at $97.21. Brent has support around yesterday’s intraday low at $96.73. The next support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $92.61, obtained by connecting the mid-December 2025 low with the early March 2026 peak. Brent could face immediate resistance around $105. A decisive move above this level could pave the way for further upside to recent highs at the beginning of the conflict. WTI could find support around $94.92 and $91.65. It could encounter resistance at $99.90, followed by 103.35.
- Gold & Silver
Gold closed just above the $5,000 mark yesterday and is hovering around $5,025 (+0.3%) in Asian trading today, as markets turn cautious ahead of the FOMC policy decision. While the metal has managed to hold ground amid persistent geopolitical tensions and the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, bullish dollar flows are likely acting as a key resistance, limiting the scope for any major upside breakout in gold.
Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and continued attacks on energy infrastructure have kept oil prices elevated, fuelling concerns about inflation. This, in turn, has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, with markets now pricing in virtually no chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, which typically puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
Technically, gold faces resistance around $5,080, a level it has previously tested. Support may be seen near the 50-day SMA around $4,953, and a sustained break below this level could trigger further downside. However, any dips are likely to attract buyers, with broader risks still skewed to the upside over the medium term. Silver is trading up 1%, around $81.65. Resistance may be seen at the 20-day SMA at $84.80, while support lies around $77, a previously tested level.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar’s advance tapered off yesterday, closing 0.7% lower at $99.82 amid a slight reversal in crude prices and President Trump’s pressure on nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, it’s trading up in today’s session, close to $100. This is in tandem with rising crude prices, given U.S. allies’ rebuff of President Trump’s demand.
On a fundamental level, the dollar remains bullish. The short-term (10-day) correlation between DXY and WTI has risen from 0.38 on 15th March to 0.48 as of 16th March. However, it’s still down from its peak of 0.85 at the start of the crisis. Any headlines that elevate the crisis will support crude prices and drive haven flows into DXY, further increasing this correlation. The Federal Reserve’s March 17-18 meeting dominates this week’s calendar. Their decision is likely to be a rate hold, and markets are also pricing in the same outcome. This, along with lower expectations for further Fed rate cuts down the year amid rising inflation concerns, will support DXY in the near term. US industrial production rose modestly in February, lifted by a second month of gains in manufacturing and mining output. USD/JPY is pushing to intraday highs as the combined efforts of BOJ Governor Ueda and Finance Minister Katayama are failing to provide support for the yen. The most telling is Ueda’s comment that the central bank is ready to conduct bond operations flexibly in exceptional cases. Investors are taking that to mean the conditions haven’t been met, which is negative for JGBs and the currency. Especially with a BOJ decision due in two days, it sounds as though there isn’t going to be a hawkish surprise.
Technically, DXY has near-term support at $99.60, followed by the 200-day EMA at $99 on the daily chart. Resistance could be near last Friday’s high at $100.54, followed by the $100.60-$100.70 zone. EUR/USD has support from Friday’s close of 1.141, while resistance could be around 1.151. The currency pair is biased lower due to the dollar’s strength.
