- U.S. Markets
U.S. equity markets are attempting to stabilise, with the S&P 500 trading around $6,608, just below its 200-day SMA (~$6,624), as markets navigate mixed geopolitical signals. Oil prices have eased, with WTI pulling back below $89. After rising nearly 4% earlier in the session, crude gave up gains to close largely flat, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty around the conflict. Notably, WTI remains sharply lower, down roughly 25% from its recent highs near $119, indicating that while risk premium remains, markets are also reacting to intermittent de-escalation signals.
The key development is a shift in tone from Washington. The U.S. is still active militarily in the region and has sent more troops, but President Trump is also showing a willingness to de-escalate. Reports suggest the U.S. is pushing for a one-month ceasefire to allow talks, along with a 15-point proposal to resolve the conflict, covering nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and regional security. However, the situation remains uncertain. Just recently, oil prices saw strength after Iran denied any negotiations and indicated no intention to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This constant back-and-forth is keeping volatility elevated across asset classes.
From a macro standpoint, the broader concern remains intact. Even with oil pulling back from highs, markets continue to price a persistent energy-driven inflation risk, keeping central banks cautious and financial conditions tight. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to turn dovish quickly, which continues to limit upside in equities.
Technically, the S&P 500 is at a key inflection point. The index is trading just below the 200-day SMA at $6,624, which remains a critical resistance level. A sustained break above this level could shift sentiment more positively. On the downside, immediate support lies near $6,522 (yesterday’s low), followed by $6,475, a key positioning level. While short-term relief rallies are possible on de-escalation headlines, the broader setup remains cautious, with downside risks more likely if tensions persist.
- Gold & Silver
Gold broke out of a 9-day losing streak yesterday as it gained 1.6% amid speculation that the U.S. may be open to diplomatic discussions with Iran about the ongoing conflict. The 5-day pause of attacks on Iran announced over the weekend has offered some respite, sending oil lower and gold higher. That said, no concrete conclusion to the conflict has been reached yet and uncertainty remains elevated, especially as Iran has still maintained a firm grip on the Strait of Hormuz. China has nudged Iran towards negotiating with the U.S. while regional mediators are expected to hold high-level discussions as early as tomorrow. Even then, the Trump administration has directed the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to send roughly 2,000 troops to the Middle East, reinforcing an additional 5,000 personnel who are expected to arrive in the region over the next few days.
Recent reports also indicate that certain central banks have been selling gold to defend their domestic currencies from war-driven fluctuations. Turkey, for instance, which has vast gold reserves of $135 billion as of early March, is expected to trim dollar-denominated asset exposure to defend the lira. Last week, gold-backed ETFs saw outflows to the tune of $4 billion, marking the third consecutive week of redemptions. However, the possibility of a more diplomatic approach to this war has offered gold a breather. Historically, gold prices tend to fall when geopolitical tensions trigger a spike in oil prices, so the slump in gold since the outbreak of the war is understandable. It is linked to concerns about a revival in inflationary pressures, which could potentially diminish the possibility of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. That said, it is essential to note that gold tends to rebound once tensions abate and oil prices retreat.
Gold is up 1.59% at $4,545 at present. It has support around $4,396, marked by the early-February 2026 low and the mid-October 2025 highs. After rebounding from the 200-SMA located at $4,071 on Monday, gold has gradually inched upwards, with immediate resistance around $4,655. The 5-period RSI on the day chart is gradually veering out of oversold territory, indicating the upward momentum has further room to run.
After edging lower since the war began, silver is up 2.87% today at $73.36. Yesterday’s session saw the SLF ETF attracting inflows to the tune of $572.3 million. Silver is also being impacted by the prospect of a halt on further rate cuts and low industrial demand from China. However, geopolitical headlines will be the key driving force in the near-term. Silver has immediate support around $70.57, followed by the next support around $61.79. It could encounter resistance around $76.65, followed by the next resistance at $81.85.
- Crude Oil
WTI is up 0.5%, while Brent is moving up marginally. After a steep decline on Monday, the global benchmark Brent climbed 4.6% intraday to reach near $104.5 a barrel on Tuesday. However, prices pared most gains post-settlement after an Israeli media report that the US is seeking a one-month ceasefire with Iran.
The trading session marked another volatile day on Tuesday, with swings tracking the day’s developments in the Middle East. Donald Trump again said negotiations were underway with high-level Iranian officials to end the war. Meantime, the US is planning to deploy about 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region, as the White House weighs options to ease Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
The de facto closure has forced Persian Gulf producers to cut millions of barrels of daily oil output. Petroleum products such as diesel and jet fuel have rallied even harder than crude, squeezing consumers and rattling governments. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said that Gulf producers will need as many as four months to resume full output. Shell Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan estimated that the physical disruption will spread to Europe from Asia next month.
Currently, WTI and Brent are mostly moving on news, and upside potential remains as volatility is still high.
On the daily chart, WTI is trading below the 9 SMA; however, it still remains above the 21 SMA. RSI is around 41, indicating moderate momentum in prices. On the 1-hour chart, immediate resistance is at $93 which is the 50 SMA, followed by the 61.8 fib level of $96. Immediate support is at $88, followed by 23rd March low of $85.
On the daily chart, Brent is trading below the 9 SMA; however, it still remains above the 21 SMA. RSI is around 43, indicating moderate momentum in prices. On the 1-hour chart, immediate resistance is at 50 SMA level of $103, followed by the 61.8 fib level of $107. Support is at 23rd March low of $96 followed by the 12th March breakout level of $94.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is up over 0.15% today and is currently trading at 99.33.
From a fundamental standpoint, news pertaining to the US-Iran conflict continues to dominate the headlines. The US is increasing its military presence in the Middle East amid conflicting statements about negotiations with Iran. Furthermore, Middle Eastern regions may soon join the U.S. and Israel in the war against Iran, according to WSJ. Trump’s 5-day ultimatum expires on 27 March, and US military forces are expected to arrive in the region on Friday, causing analysts to price in slight chances of a ground operation in Iran to be announced this weekend. From a data standpoint, the 2-year note auction yesterday yielded higher-than-expected, indicating that market participants are now demanding a higher premium to hold short-term US treasuries. The previous auction was at 3.455%, while the current one was at 3.936%. Looking ahead into the day, the 5-year note auction is expected to garner attention.
From a technical standpoint, the index continues to hold the support at the 99-99.15 price range. Since the onset of March, this level has served as both a good resistance and support. Looking ahead into the day, given a bounce from this level, a bullish stance is expected, with targets at 99.75.
Looking at other currency pairs, USDNOK and USDSEK portray attractive setups. The pairs are currently trading at 9.70 and 9.32. At the 9.80 mark, USDNOK is exhibiting price acceptance. Strong bullish RSI divergence can also be seen, supporting a bullish stance in the currency pair. Looking at USDSEK, a strong uptrend has been in place since the start of February, and the currency pair is currently forming a symmetrical triangle. A break above 9.4 brings more upside
