- Gold & Silver
Gold is trading 2.5% up for the day, currently at $4,820 as the macro environment has shifted quickly over the past 12 hours, with markets moving into a risk-on phase following the temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire. Immediate fears around disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for roughly 20–21 mb/d of global oil flows,have eased, triggering a sharp unwind in geopolitical risk premium. Oil corrected nearly 14%, while the dollar index fell ~0.7%. However, with crude still holding above $90, a level which was the previous resistance breakout area and now a likely support zone, it is clear that markets continue to price in residual uncertainty, suggesting this is a pause in risk rather than a full reset.
Recent developments remain fluid. The ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan’s Prime Minister, is structured as a 2-week window to negotiate a broader agreement based on Iran’s 10-point proposal. This includes conditional reopening of the Strait, sanctions relief discussions, and non-aggression commitments. Importantly, both sides have signaled that this is not a final resolution, keeping geopolitical risk structurally elevated and maintaining underlying support for safe-haven assets like gold.
From a positioning and flow perspective, gold is currently being driven almost entirely by macro and geopolitical factors. The latest correlation data (Apr 1–8, 2026) shows gold holding a -0.934 correlation with the dollar and -0.924 with oil, highlighting a strong inverse relationship. This suggests that flows are rotating aggressively based on geopolitical expectations rather than traditional rate dynamics. At the same time, gold has rallied nearly 17% from its March lows after successfully testing its 200-day moving average, reinforcing strong demand and continued accumulation on dips.
Technically, gold remains in a well-defined ascending channel that has been intact since March 23rd. The structure is clearly bullish, with higher lows consistently respected and price rebounding strongly from the lower bound of the channel. Currently, gold is consolidating near $4,830, holding above last week’s high around $4,800, which now acts as immediate support.
For intraday positioning, the key level to watch on the upside is $4,940–$4,950, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a critical resistance zone where some selling pressure may emerge. A clean break and hold above this range could trigger momentum continuation toward the $5,000 psychological level.
On the downside, $4,800 remains the first support. A break below this could see prices move toward $4,700, which coincides with the lower end of the channel. However, unless there is a clear and sustained de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, downside is likely to remain limited.
Overall, the setup remains biased to the upside. The combination of strong technical structure, elevated geopolitical risk, and sustained demand after a successful 200-day moving average test suggests that dips continue to be bought, with the broader trend still firmly bullish.
Silver is showing clear relative strength in the current risk-on environment, with price action now being driven by both momentum and a key structural breakout. The most important development is the decisive break above the major descending trendline that had been in place since the late January highs. This trendline had consistently capped rallies for nearly two months, and its breakout signals a meaningful shift from a corrective phase into a new bullish trend.
This move is further supported by a strong 6% rally, with silver breaking out of the $69.5–$73 consolidation range that had held prices in check earlier this week. The breakout confirms strong buyer participation and adds conviction to the trend reversal.
Currently trading near $77, silver maintains an upward bias, with the next immediate target around $79.2. On the downside, $76.4 is the first key support level to watch. Holding above this keeps momentum intact. A deeper retracement could test the $73 zone, which now acts as a strong base.
As long as the metal sustains above $76 and holds above the broken trendline, the broader setup remains bullish, with the next major resistance seen near $90.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 581.51
22 Carat – AED 533.05
21 Carat– AED 508.82
18 Carat – AED 436.13
