U.S. Markets
The S&P surged by almost 1% to $ 6,970, just 32 points below its record high of $7,002 set in February. This came as market participants were optimistic about the possibility of further peace talks between the US and Iran. The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks before the two-week ceasefire expires by next week. The Nasdaq 100 index is also set for its longest winning nine-day streak since 2021. The Vix index fell to 18.5, touching its lowest level since the war began at the end of Feb. The CNN Fear and Greed index also showed improvement in overall sentiment, moving from extreme fear at the start of this week into the Neutral zone. Investors are also closely watching the first-quarter earnings amidst the rapidly evolving geopolitical environment. The sector rotation for the week suggests the technology and communications sector have regained momentum, whereas the energy sector has cooled after a steep run. On the economic data front, producer inflation came in sharply below expectations, cooling down inflation concerns.
Technically, the S&P 500 index is trading at $6,964 and has decisively broken above the $6,900 resistance level. The index has shown strong momentum since last week and remains in a strong uptrend. This is indicated by the ascending trendline connecting the lows at $6311, $6534, and $6730, respectively. The hourly charts also show the formation of a bull flag and price acceptance at the current levels. However, the $7,000 level appears to be a strong resistance. If it breaks and closes above it, new all-time highs can be expected. Conversely, the prices can consolidate and find a near-term support at the $6900 level. The importance of these levels is also evident in the options exposure. Almost 18 billion of negative delta notional exposure is concentrated at the $7000 strike, and 14 billion of positive delta notional exposure at the $6900 strike.
U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar fell by 0.27% yesterday as the dollar’s geopolitical premium began to unwind amid peace talks between Iran and the US this week. The dollar is trading 0.06% higher in the early trading hours.
On a fundamental level, greenback movement will remain rather muted if there are no fresh geopolitical headlines today. Investors are awaiting direction as prospects for talks strengthen. Both the US and Iran want to suspend Iranian Uranium enrichment; however, they are unable to agree on a time frame, with the US proposing a 20-year pause and Iran seeking a 5-year pause. Pakistan’s PM plans to meet with the leadership of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey to broker a deal. Moreover, Trump has stated that he has no intention of extending the ceasefire, which is due on April 22, and that it may not be required. Peace talks will unwind the geopolitical premium and may be bearish for the dollar.
On a technical level, the DXY is trading below its 9-, 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs. The first support lies at $97.886, followed by the more critical $97.772 floor. The dollar had been consolidating within the $97.77 to $100.56 range since September 2025 before breaking down in January, and has since returned to trade within that same band following the onset of the conflict. On the upside, potential resistance lies at $98.38, the open of yesterday, followed by the 98.49 resistance level, which coincides with the 200-day SMA. The current RSI is at 38.45, indicating muted bearish momentum.
Crude Oil
WTI retreated 6.3%, and Brent retreated 3% on Tuesday as Washington and Tehran are seeking to arrange a second round of peace talks. The aim is to hold further discussions before the current ceasefire expires next week. Iran is also said to be considering a short-term pause to its shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade before the fresh round of peace talks start. Today, WTI is down 0.43% at $91 and Brent is down 0.22% at $96.
As of today, no vessels have made it past the US blockade and six vessels were asked to turn around and re-enter an Iranian port. Further, the US will also allow a waiver temporarily authorising the purchase of certain Iranian crude oil to expire this weekend, adding pressure to Iranian oil revenue.
An end to the war and the reopening of the Strait would allow the world to begin replenishing hundreds of millions of barrels lost through the conflict that has stretched over six weeks. The consequences of the war however will be felt on energy markets through the coming months and years.
WTI has broken down from the upward trendline joining 8th April, 11th April and 13th April lows on the 4-hour chart, having a bearish bias for the day. Prices can test the key level of $87. A break below this level can push prices to $84. Immediate resistance is at the $96 level which is the 27th March breakout, followed by the $100, which is at the previous trendline.
For Brent, as well, prices have broken down from the upward trendline joining 8th April, 11th April and 13th April lows on the 4-hour chart, having a bearish bias for the day. Support is the 8th April low of $92, which is also the level where prices gaped up from on 11th March. A break below this level can send prices to the $87 level. Immediate resistance is at $100, which is at the trendline break, followed by $103, which coincides with the 50% fib level.
Gold & Silver
Gold gained 2.02% in the last session, rebounding from its 9-day SMA, reinforcing strong dip-buying interest. In today’s session, prices are slightly lower by 0.47% at $4,816, as the market consolidates. Technically, gold has moved back into its ascending channel and is currently holding near the lower trendline, an attractive point for intraday traders to take a position.
Fundamentally, central bank demand continues to act as a key pillar. China added 160,000 ounces in March, marking its largest monthly purchase in over a year and extending its buying streak to 17 consecutive months. Poland has increased reserves to ~580–583 tonnes, moving closer to the global top holders while the Czech Republic purchased 5 tonnes in Q1 taking gold to 6.3% of total reserves. Russia has also increased holdings by 2.4 tonnes (4%) recently. This consistent accumulation highlights a structural bid underneath the market.
In derivatives markets, positioning further supports the bullish case. Call open interest is concentrated at strikes 30–50% above current levels, indicating expectations of further upside, while the fading put skew suggests that downside fear is easing.
Technically, for intraday traders, gold has an immediate support at its 9 Day SMA at $4,740, followed by the next support level at the 100 Day SMA level at $4,684. Immediate resistance lies at the 50 Day SMA at $4,899, followed by $4,978. Silver gained 5.23% in the last session and is currently trading at $79.29, down 0.42%. Immediate support is at the 100 Day SMA at $76.67, and resistance is around $82.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 581.50
22 Carat – AED 538.50
21 Carat – AED 516.25
18 Carat – AED 442.50
