The SPX index is on track to end the week more than 3% higher, setting a streak of three consecutive weeks ending in the green. Equities are holding at record highs as investors stay optimistic after Trump also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The update eased fears of a wider regional conflict that could threaten oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. In today’s session, the S&P index is steady around its new highs of $7,050. The Nasdaq index is also recording its longest winning streak of 12 consecutive sessions in the green, last seen in 2017. The rally has been broadly led by the technology sector, with the Bloomberg’s Magnificent 7 index close to erasing its 2026 losses. The options market reflects that the implied volatility for a 25 delta call option on QQQ is the highest since mid-January compared to at-the-money options. The market breadth also indicates a significant recovery this week. The percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average in SPX has climbed from 30% at the start of this month to 53% at present.
Technically, SPX is trading at $7,050. It broke out of the key $7,000 resistance level this week, creating a new all-time high. On the 1-hour timeframe, the price has been consolidating in the $7020 – $7050 range since yesterday. A break higher may lead the index to test the $7,100 levels. Conversely, the index may find support at the lower end of the range at $7,020, followed by the 9-day SMA at $ 6,890.
Crude Oil
WTI rose 1.8%, and Brent rallied 3% on Thursday as traders weighed signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire against a double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that continues to impede flows. Today, WTI is up 0.13% near $93 and Brent is up 0.65% at $100.
The US and Iran are considering a two-week extension to the ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. However, some Gulf Arab and European leaders, predict that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be brokered.
There is a sharp divergence between prices in the physical market and the paper market, which reflects the price of financial contracts, including futures and options. In the physical market, oil refiners are paying about $30 a barrel more than the price of the nearest-term oil futures contract, the largest premium the market has ever seen. Further, futures markets are in backwardation and are seeing the largest gaps in prices historically during the current war.
WTI has taken support at the $90 level on the 4-hour chart and broken out of the downward trendline connecting the highs of 7th April, 13th April, and 16th April and is bullish for the day. As long as prices stay above the 15th April low of $88, WTI is bullish. The next crucial level near 23rd March low of $84-$85, a break below this level can turn WTI bearish. Immediate resistance is at 27th March breakout of $96, followed by the key $100 level.
Brent has broken out of the downward trendline connecting the highs of 7th April, 13th April, and 16th April and is bullish for the day. Support is at 15th April low of $95, followed by the 8th April low of $92 and then the key level of $87. A break below this level can make oil technically bearish. Immediate resistance is at $103, which is at the 78.6% fib level followed by $105, which was the 13th April high.
Gold & Silver
Gold is trading steady around $4,788 today, largely unchanged after a flat previous session, but the broader trend remains positive, with prices on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Technically, the structure remains supportive as Gold is holding firmly above its 9-day SMA near $4,765. As long as prices stay above this level, the short-term momentum favours buyers, making intraday dips attractive opportunities to enter long positions.
On the macro front, while diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East are ongoing, the situation is far from fully resolved. Persistent friction between the U.S. and Iran, particularly due to the continued American naval blockade of Iranian ports, is keeping a layer of geopolitical risk intact.
At the same time, physical market dynamics are turning supportive. In India, banks have temporarily halted gold and silver imports due to the lack of formal government authorisation that is leaving large quantities stuck at customs. As one of the world’s largest gold consumers, any disruption in imports could tighten near term supply. This is especially significant with Akshaya Tritiya in two days, a period traditionally associated with strong buying interest in precious metals. The combination of potential supply constraints and seasonal demand could act as a catalyst for an upside move.
Technically, Gold has an immediate support at its 9 Day SMA at $4,765, followed by the next support level at the 100 Day SMA at $4,698. Immediate resistance is at $4,871, which falls at the current week’s high, followed by the 50 Day SMA at $4,892. Silver is currently trading at $78.48, unchanged for the day. It has key support at $74.39  and resistance at $80.5, which falls on the ascending channel trendline, in which the silver is currently trading in.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 578.75
22 Carat – AED 536.00
21 Carat – AED 514.00
18 Carat – AED 440.50
U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar rose by 0.13% as uncertainty in the Middle East persists and is up by 0.05% in early hours of trading today.
On a fundamental level, the dollar’s direction remains binary. War escalation supports a bullish dollar, while peace talks introduce temporary headwinds. US President Donald Trump confirmed the next meeting between Washington and Tehran could take place over the weekend, keeping traders positioned cautiously into the close. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel took effect on Thursday, which may briefly weigh on the dollar, though experts anticipate that a comprehensive peace deal remains six months away while Hormuz gradually reopens. This prolonged uncertainty continues to underpin safe-haven demand, and the dollar may edge higher today in a muted manner.
On a technical level, the DXY is trading below its 9-, 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, though near-term price action tells a more encouraging story. On Fridays from March 13, March 20, and April 3, the dollar closed in the green, attributing to market uncertainty driving safe-haven demand ahead of the weekend. Last Friday the candle ended in the red as the ceasefire represented a more concentrated policy decision rather than open-ended uncertainty, reducing the risk premium that markets had consistently priced in ahead of weekend geopolitical developments. The dollar is currently consolidating between $97.88 and $98.49, awaiting a catalyst for the next directional move. Notably, the dollar tested key support at $97.886 yesterday and rebounded firmly, reinforcing bullish sentiment at current levels. On the upside, resistance sits at $98.51, which coincides with the 200-day SMA. On the downside, initial support holds at $97.88, with $97.74 serving as the next key floor should that level give way.
