Iran submitted a new ceasefire proposal via Pakistani mediators, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring nuclear talks until the US lifts its blockade. The whipsaw mirrors Friday’s pattern — geopolitics is now the dominant intraday catalyst, with sentiment flipping on single headlines. The earlier weakness was triggered by Trump cancelling senior envoy travel and Tehran reiterating it won’t negotiate under blockade conditions, a reminder of how quickly this can deteriorate.
Meanwhile, even as stock prices remain firm, CDS spreads on Google and Meta are widening—a credit-equity divergence that historically tends to resolve in favor of credit. The BIS has also warned that hyperscalers’ growing use of off-balance-sheet lease commitments is gradually weakening their credit profiles. With Brent at $126, making refinancing more challenging, the AI capex cycle may carry more hidden leverage than equity valuations imply. This week’s guidance will be key in either narrowing this gap or pushing it wider.
The S&P 500 is around 7,160, moving sideways just below resistance at 7,190–7,200 after a strong rebound from 6,310 over the past few weeks. If it breaks and holds above 7,200, it could continue higher toward 7,350–7,400. If it fails to break, it may pull back to 6,950–7,000, which is a key support zone. A drop below 6,800 would invalidate the recovery outlook.
Gold and Silver
Gold is consolidating in today’s session, trading between $4,660-$4,740 on an intraday basis. However, it is likely to face downward pressure as oil prices and treasury yields rise. The bullion lost 2.7% last week, amid stalled efforts to resume peace talks between the US and Iran, with energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz remaining choked. Silver also lost 6% last week, closing below $76. This ended the previous 4-week streak of gains for both metals.
Precious metals are bracing for a big week of central bank meets, with the Fed FOMC meeting on Wednesday, April 29th. Markets are pricing in a 99% probability of a rate-hold. For the remaining Fed meetings in 2026, markets are reluctant to price in even a single 25-bps rate cut. This assumes that Kevin Warsh will likely take over as the new Fed chair in May. Investors don’t expect Warsh to deliver the aggressive rate cuts but rather to pursue a measured approach with gradual rate cuts, a bearish sign for gold and silver in the near term as inflation expectations remain elevated. Other major central bank meetings this week include the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. All of them are likely to keep the rates steady (bearish for gold and silver). There could be elevated price volatility around these key events. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund sold about 22 tons of gold in the first quarter of the year. The sales are worth more than $3 billion at current prices, marking the first time that the fund has sold down its reserves since it started buying gold in 2012.
Technically, gold is facing strong overhead resistance from the $4,740-$4,780 zone, which includes the 20 and 50-day EMAs. A break higher from here could see a retest of the $4,900 level. On the flip side, support is likely at $4,660. A break lower from here could open the door to the $4,500 level. A break from the intraday range of $4,660-$4,740 on either side remains an important signal. The daily RSI remains below 50, in the neutral territory, suggesting consolidation. For silver, overhead resistance is around $77 (50-day EMA), while support is likely at $74 (near the 100-day EMA). The overall bias for both metals remains moderately bearish.
Crude Oil
Oil ended last week in positive territory, snapping out of a previous 2-week decline. Prices remain higher on Monday as talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled after President Trump cancelled his envoys’ visit to Pakistan over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by both countries, severely curtailing the flow of crude oil through the waterway. Around 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude are estimated to have been unable to reach markets, resulting in a record draw of 11 to 12 million barrels per day this month. Furthermore, global inventories are estimated to have declined by about 4.8 million barrels per day, with softer demand offsetting part of the supply shortfall. As a result, Brent prices have risen nearly 50% since the outbreak of the conflict. International buyers have had to reroute cargoes and secure barrels from other countries rather than from the Middle East. Recently, Japan, which typically imports 90% of its oil from the Middle East, received 910,000 barrels of U.S.-produced crude oil from Texas.
WTI is up 1.58% at $96.40, trading above the 21-day SMA at $93.50, which acts as immediate support. The next support is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level of $90.61, drawn by connecting the mid-December low to the 9th March high. This level also aligns with the 9-day SMA, providing solid support. Sustained moves above $96.96 could pave the way for a retest of $100. Brent is up 1.81% at $107.87. The upward-sloping 9-SMA is likely to cross over the 21-SMA over the upcoming sessions, which could reinforce the up move. It has support around $101.50. The 5-period RSI near 57 points signals room for further upside without being overbought. The bias is cautiously bullish in the near term, with a sustained move above the $108–110 resistance zone needed to confirm continuation toward $112–115. However, a failure to hold above $102 could weaken this setup and risk a retest of lower support levels.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is trading at $98.10 in Monday’s Asian session, trading near its 200 day moving average at $98.16. Price action remains range bound, suggesting the market is stabilising after recent moves. Support is seen at $97.71, while resistance is located at $98.89. Holding within this range points to ongoing consolidation with a breakout above resistance or a fall below support will set the next directional trend.
The dollar is getting support from ongoing geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US. Uncertainty around negotiations and risks to oil supply are keeping demand for the dollar strong as a safe-haven asset. However, reports suggest Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire, while delaying nuclear talks. If tensions ease, it could reduce demand for the dollar.
At the same time, weakness in the Japanese Yen is providing an additional support for the dollar. According to Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management economist Kei Fujimoto, the yen’s depreciation is being driven by structural factors, including elevated oil prices, fiscal concerns and a weakening trade balance. With USD/JPY hovering near the 160 level an area historically linked to intervention risks, the limited effectiveness of potential intervention suggests continued downside pressure on the yen, indirectly supporting the DXY.
Looking ahead, markets are bracing for heightened volatility as both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are set to announce policy decisions this week.
From a technical perspective, immediate support for the index is at $97.71, followed by $97.00. On the upside, resistance is seen at $98.89; a break above would open the path toward $99.22. Meanwhile, EUR/USD finds near-term resistance at its 9-day SMA around 1.1746 and support at 1.1668.
