Today SPX decreased by 0.17% to $7,161, while Nasdaq dropped by 0.50% to $27,200, after spx reached new highs.
US markets are gaining mainly due to the recent rally in AI-related companies, especially Nvidia. This means the market is heavily dependent on continued spending in AI and cloud infrastructure.
Right now, companies like Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are crucial. Their upcoming earnings reports matter more than usual because investors are focused on one key thing: how much they plan to keep spending on AI. If they confirm strong and increasing investment, the rally can continue. If not, the market could quickly pull back.
Nvidia’s rise reflects strong optimism around AI demand, but valuations are already high. So it’s not enough for demand to be strong; it also needs to keep growing consistently.
There are some positive signs, like Intel’s strong bond demand, which suggests confidence in AI infrastructure from credit markets. But overall, this confidence is still concentrated in a few areas rather than the broader market.
From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 recently hit a high around 7,192 before pulling back to about 7,161. The recent candles show some rejection at higher levels and a small pullback. This actually fits a healthy pattern. The index broke above a key resistance level around 7,160, moved higher, and is now coming back to test that level. If it holds above 7,160, it suggests the breakout is valid and the uptrend can continue. Meanwhile support can be seen near $7,090.
Gold and Silver
Gold closed 0.58% lower yesterday and is trading 0.90% lower today, breaking below yesterday’s key support of $4,640-$4,660. Rising crude oil prices and treasury yields continue to pressure the bullion. Silver is also extending yesterday’s losses, trading 2% lower, close to the key $74 level, and the bias for both metals remains moderately bearish.
Iran reportedly delivered a fresh proposal to Washington, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade. However, the major point continues to be Iran’s nuclear program, which has both sides at odds. This reduces the likelihood of substantial progress in peace talks and keeps oil prices elevated. Precious metals also lack positive sentiment amid this week’s central bank meetings and the hawkish tone likely to follow. Market focus would also be on policy guidance – particularly how they view the inflationary impact of the Iran conflict. US Q1 GDP and March PCE data may further shape sentiment, with markets remaining on high alert amid US-Iran tensions. According to data from the World Gold Council, gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $1.4 billion for the week ending 24th April. North America accounted for the most ETF outflows, totalling $2.1 billion. Money managers decreased their bullish gold bets by 3,352 net-long positions to 95,498 in the week ended April 21, according to CFTC data. Hedge fund managers cut their net bullish silver bets to a 7-week low for the same time period.
Technically, gold is likely to face strong overhead resistance at the $4,700 level, followed by $4,730-$4,770 (including the 20 and 50-day EMAs). On the flip side, support is likely at $4,600. A break lower from here could open the door to the $4,550 level. For silver, overhead resistance is around $77 (50-day EMA), while support is likely at $72. Volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices are up for the second straight session this week amid the sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both the U.S. and Iran. Oil gained 2.8% on Monday. Brent crude has now climbed for a seventh straight session, marking its longest winning streak in over a year. The shutdown of the Strait has severely disrupted the movement of crude, natural gas, and refined fuels—pushing energy prices higher and fueling fears of a broader inflation shock. Brent prices are approaching the $110 per barrel level, though still below recent conflict-driven highs near $120. Iran appears firmly committed to maintaining its position around Hormuz, while the U.S. is pushing to curb Iranian oil output. If that effort gains traction, it could tighten supply even further by removing additional barrels from the market. Given the current backdrop, the near-term trend remains tilted to the upside.
Brent is up 2.23% at $110.72. The 9-day SMA has crossed above the 21-day SMA on the day chart, signalling bullish momentum. Sustained moves above $112.27 could pave the way for a leg up to $114.70. Meanwhile, support is near $105.40 and $103.28. Meanwhile, WTI is trading 1.55% higher at $98.23 on Tuesday. It has 21-SMA support at $98.83 on the day chart. Sustained moves above $103.16 could send the commodity up to $106.40.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is trading higher in today’s morning session at $98.38, up 0.21%, with price action showing early signs of strength and supporting a bullish bias for the day. The upside in the dollar is being driven by renewed geopolitical tensions, after Donald Trump’s comments highlighted scepticism over Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate the conflict. Concerns around Iran’s willingness to meet key demands, particularly around nuclear commitments, have added to market uncertainty.
This backdrop has pushed oil prices higher, indirectly supporting the dollar, especially given the United States position as a net oil exporter. Rising energy prices tend to reinforce dollar strength through improved trade dynamics and capital flows.
On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, in line with expectations. However, a notable shift emerged as three out of nine board members favoured a rate hike, signalling a gradual move toward policy normalisation. Market participants will closely monitor comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda later in the day for further clarity on how ongoing geopolitical tensions may influence Japan’s future rate path.
Looking ahead, attention turns to the CB Consumer Confidence data for April, which will serve as a key indicator of economic sentiment and could provide further directional cues for the dollar.
Technically, DXY has an immediate support at the 100 Day SMA at $98.15, followed by the next key support level at $97.71. The immediate resistance is at the 50 Day SMA at $98.58, followed by the next resistance level at $98.88 (a horizontal line resistance). The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1690, down by 0.26%. Immediate support is at the 50 Day SMA at 1.1650, and resistance is at the 9 Day SMA at 1.1733.
