SPX opens Tuesday at approximately 7,170, following a 0.41% decline yesterday, while NDX also slipped by 0.21% as geopolitical uncertainty returned.Markets pulled back yesterday as the Iran situation took a turn for the worse. Iran tightened its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, releasing a new map outlining expanded areas under its control, while President Trump indicated that the current level of military engagement could persist for another two to three weeks. That comment alone was enough to cloud the near-term outlook and send equities lower. Peace talks appear to be stalling, with shipping lanes remaining under pressure. The situation remains fluid, and headline risk is elevated.
That said, investor resilience in AI-related names was notable. Micron gained 6.31%, SanDisk rose 5.8%, and Nebius surged dramatically by 14%. This is a clear signal that even against a difficult geopolitical backdrop, conviction in AI infrastructure spending remains intact. However, if the conflict intensifies further and for longer, this resilience may be tested.
All eyes today are on AMD, which reports Q1 2026 earnings after the close. Wall Street is expecting revenue to climb 33% year over year to $9.89 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.29. Given the strong AI spending signals from Alphabet and Microsoft last week, the bar is high, but the setup is constructive. AMD’s guidance on data centre GPU demand will be closely watched.
Technically, SPX dipped to 7,170 yesterday, retesting the 9-day SMA. SPX rebounded from that level, indicating bullishness in the market. RSI sits at 68.09, indicating momentum remains positive but is no longer deeply extended. A clean hold above the 9-day SMA keeps the uptrend intact. A break below it, however, shifts the picture and opens the door to a more meaningful pullback at 7,130. On the upside, resistance remains at 7,276, the all-time high.
Crude oil prices rose yesterday as Iranian strikes on a crucial UAE oil port and several ships tested a shaky cease-fire. WTI closed 2.4% higher yesterday near $107. In today’s session, it is trading steadily near $105, as markets breathe a sigh of relief over news that President Trump brushed aside yesterday’s attacks by Iran and said they didn’t constitute a violation of the ceasefire. Still, tensions remain high as Iran redefined the control zone in the strait, stretching from south of Mount Mobarak in Iran to south of Fujairah. The oil price bias remains bullish.At least 13 ships have already diverted from the area after the report that Iran had extended its maritime reach, threatening to worsen the global supply crunch. The market is starting to recognise that this won’t be a clean, linear path to reopening, but a more uncertain process with speed bumps. In the meantime, the biggest risk is the re-emergence of energy infrastructure as a target. Global stockpiles of oil and products are being drawn down at a pace because of the Iran war, with the biggest risks seen in naptha, jet fuel and LPG. In total, global oil inventories are estimated to have contracted to the lowest level in about eight years, and from here they are expected to drop to 98 days of demand by the end of May from 101 days at present, according to Bloomberg.
Technically, WTI faces $110 as resistance on the upside. A break higher from here could lead to a test of the $113 level. On the flip side, support appears likely at the $100-$102 level (including the 20-day EMA). A break lower from here could open the door to $95. An RSI reading of 57 indicates that the bullish momentum is back in play with elevated geopolitical volatility.
Precious metals faced a weak session on Monday, with gold prices falling another 1.94% by the close, briefly touching nearly a one-month low, while Silver fell 3.49%. Prices for both metals seem to be trading stable during Tuesday’s early session, with gold trading 0.48% higher and silver trading 0.56% higher.The metals have come under additional pressure as the market priced in a return to the war trade, with oil prices and US treasury yields spiking again, especially after fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz were reported. As a result, expectations of inflation rose back, evident with the 10-year treasury yield rising above 4.43% and the 30-year treasury yield rising above the 5% mark. This made the dollar index spike 0.2% yesterday, adding to the headwinds for the dollar-denominated metals. Additionally, the odds of a 25-bps rate hike by the end of the year rose to 28.7% from 9.1% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, adding further pressure on non-yielding metals.
Technically, Gold prices are trading below key short-term moving averages on both 4-hour and daily charts, suggesting a weak market structure in the near term. Although prices have recovered a bit today from a bullish RSI divergence, the $4561 level from 1st May lows and a 0.382 fib retracement resistance could halt further gains. Additionally, a downward sloping channel formed by connecting the highs of 17th April, 21st April, 24th April, and 1st May could provide resistance near the $4590 mark. On the flip side, further downside could be seen if prices break below yesterday’s low at $4501. For silver, potential resistance lies near the $74.35 level formed by the 9- and 100-day EMAs, while potential support might come from the 29th April lows near $70.86.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 546.25
22 Carat – AED 505.75
21 Carat – AED 485.00
18 Carat – AED 415.50
