U.S. Markets
U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday after the major averages kicked off June at fresh record highs. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down 0.08%, while the Nasdaq 100 is trading flat as investors take a breather following Monday’s AI-led rally.
Technology stocks led gains in the previous session after Nvidia unveiled a new PC chip, reinforcing optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence theme that has driven markets higher this year. Among the top performers were Micron Technology (+6.6%), Nvidia (+6.3%), Oracle (+9.9%), IBM (+7.6%), and Dell Technologies (+10.7%). In after-hours trading, Hewlett Packard Enterprise surged 28% after issuing a strong quarterly outlook and raising its full-year guidance.
Investors are also keeping an eye on the U.S.-Iran talks. Negotiations are still ongoing, but progress toward any kind of peace deal has been uneven at best. That keeps geopolitical risks firmly in play. Any deterioration in discussions could reignite volatility, particularly given elevated oil prices and their implications for inflation. On the economic front, traders will look toward the latest JOLTS Job Openings report for further insight into labor market conditions. Earnings from Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, GitLab and Victoria’s Secret are also due later today and could provide additional direction for individual sectors.
The AI-driven rally has been strong, but momentum is starting to show some early signs of fatigue. On the hourly chart, we’re seeing a bearish RSI divergence: price made a higher high, yet RSI failed to follow through. That’s a classic signal that upside momentum may be slowing, even if the trend hasn’t broken yet. That said, the broader setup remains constructive as long as the 7,580 support level holds. A clean break above the recent high near 7,630 would invalidate the divergence and likely open the door to more upside. On the flip side, losing 7,580 could trigger a deeper pullback toward the next support at 7,557. Any near-term weakness can be viewed as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity unless support levels begin to break decisively.
U.S. Dollar Index
Yesterday’s dollar rally was built on fear, not fundamentals. As Iran suspended peace talks and oil spiked 6–7%, the petrodollar mechanism kicked in, global importers scrambling for dollars drove the DXY as high as 99.40, touching the R1 pivot on the hourly chart. But that strength found no follow-through.
Today, with crude pulling back, that inflationary urgency has evaporated and the dollar is fading with it. Fundamentally, the backdrop is shifting against the greenback. Markets are increasingly pricing in that softening oil prices reduce the Fed’s urgency to hold rates higher for longer, removing the key pillar that supported the dollar through May. Meanwhile, Friday’s NFP report carry significant weight; expectations already point toward slowing payroll growth and unemployment holding near 4.3%, which if confirmed, would further erode the higher-for-longer narrative and add meaningful downside pressure on the dollar heading into the weekend.
On the 1H chart, price action tells the story precisely: the DXY broke out of a descending wedge pattern, which ordinarily signals bullish intent, but the recovery has already stalled and is being rejected squarely at the 50 SMA (99.074–99.084) and the pivot zone near 99.079. The market has handed back the wedge breakout gains almost immediately, a clear sign that sellers are in control above 99.10.
Immediate resistance sits at 99.18, followed by the stronger R1 at 99.407. A failure to reclaim the 50 SMA on an hourly close keeps the near-term bias firmly bearish. On the downside, S1 at 99.004 is the first defence, with a break below opening a swift path toward S2 at 98.688, then the deeper S1 at 98.614.
EUR/USD remains the mirror trade, Â supported near 1.1640, with resistance at 1.1660 and 1.1680. Dollar weakness above those DXY support breaks should fuel a push toward 1.17+. Today’s ISM PMI and Friday’s NFP are the week’s pivotal catalysts.
Sell DXY rallies toward 99.18–99.25. Buy EUR/USD dips toward 1.1640.
Gold & Silver
Gold has witnessed a modest recovery today pulling from previous session’s losses and is currently trading around $4,517, gaining 0.80% intraday. The recovery can be supported by a softer US Treasury yield and the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Investors continue to remain cautious while assessing geopolitical developments between US-Iran negotiations, with ceasefire discussions still indicating uncertainty. Despite easing oil prices, markets continue to price in upcoming Federal Reserve commentary for further direction.
On Monday, a partial ceasefire was announced by Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, in aims of a limited de-escalation, however the deal remains shaky. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls and employment reports, due later in the week, to assess resilience in the labour market amid mounting concerns about inflation due to the Middle East conflict.
Silver is also trading higher with current prices around $76.6, rising over 2% since yesterday. Silver continues to benefit from its ties to electrification, clean energy and technology driven demands. However, the metal remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments given its industrial usage based on global growth expectations, interest rate outlooks and oil prices.
Technically, Gold continues to trade within an elevated range, with immediate support now seen near $4,447, which is yesterday’s session low followed by stronger downside protection around the $4,372 level which is the 28th May low. On the upside, immediate resistance is positioned near $4,595, the 29th May high while a sustained move higher could bring the next major resistance area around $4,659, the 6th May breakout area into focus.
Silver also remains technically firm, with immediate support placed near $73.9, followed by stronger support around the $71.8. On the higher side, resistance is now seen near $79, with a decisive break above this region potentially opening the path toward the $81 handle.
Crude Oil
Oil experienced a sharp uptick in yesterday’s session after Tehran threated to halt peace negotiations with the U.S. and close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait after Israel ramped up attacks on Lebanon. However, oil is inching lower on Tuesday after President Trump stated that talks are ongoing. He hinted at the possibility of a memorandum of understanding to open the Strait of Hormuz as early as next week, which prompted oil to pare some of its gains. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains elevated and oil is expected to remain volatile and headline driven. The key factor to monitor is the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the number of vessels traversing the critical waterway has increased in recent weeks, it is nowhere near pre-war levels. Tracking visibility has worsened amid disruptions caused by both countries, necessitating more navigation arrangements. Washington is reviving stalled efforts towards a concrete peace deal with Iran; however, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are offering conflicting versions of their recent discussions on the Lebanon conflict, keeping uncertainty elevated.
Meanwhile, energy market analysts have advised OPEC+ that the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption is likely to extend well beyond any immediate reopening, with normal supply conditions potentially not returning until year-end. They expect that restoring production, shipping, and trade flows to pre-conflict levels could take several months. The outlook will be discussed at Tuesday’s Economic Commission Board meeting, where technical experts assess market conditions ahead of the OPEC+ ministerial gathering scheduled for June 7. That said, U.S. refiners are operating at exceptionally high utilization levels to capitalize on strong refining margins and resilient fuel demand. Maintenance activity has been unusually limited this year, with refinery outages averaging just 470,000 barrels per day between January and May—one of the lightest maintenance periods in recent years. Utilization rates are currently near 95%, effectively reflecting full operating capacity, while U.S. gasoline inventories remain at seasonally low levels, highlighting a tight fuel market.
That said, in the hopes that talks have resumed, WTI is down 1.28% for the day at $93.56, trading below all key moving averages on the day chart. It could fall to yesterday’s intraday low of $90.86, with the next support at around $88.69, roughly aligning with the late-May and late-April lows. On the flip side, WTI would have to sustain above $96.96 for a move up to the 21-day SMA at $98.91. Brent is down 1.21% at $97.59, trading just below the 9-day SMA, with a potential to drop to $95.53, marked by recent lows. The next support is around $93.75. Meanwhile, it could encounter resistance in the $101 to $102.73 zone.
