U.S. stock futures were little changed today after the major indexes closed at fresh record highs in the previous session. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 is lower by 0.15%, as investors pause following a strong run higher. The broad-based S&P 500 gained 0.13% on Tuesday, closing above the 7,600 mark for the first time in history. Seven of the eleven GICS sectors finished the session in positive territory, led by utilities, which advanced 1.93%.
The AI-driven rally continues to be supported by strong earnings momentum, with Citi’s AI basket seeing 12-month EBITDA forecasts rise nearly 29% YTD. At the same time, positioning in options is getting crowded. Investors are heavily buying upside exposure in large tech and semiconductor names, showing strong bullish sentiment. This is also reflected in volatility: individual AI stocks are seeing much higher implied volatility compared to the broader market. For instance, while SPY volatility remains relatively calm (around a 13% IV rank), stocks like Micron and Dell are extremely elevated, with volatility in the mid-90s to almost 100th percentile.
The rally has also broadened beneath the surface. More than 8% of S&P 500 constituents gained at least 5% on Tuesday, an unusually high figure for a session in which the index itself posted only modest gains. At the same time, chipmakers continued to lead the advance, with investors maintaining confidence in the AI spending cycle despite growing questions around rising capital expenditure requirements and future returns on investment.
Looking at the technicals, on the hourly charts, the price is currently trading in a short-term uptrend, moving inside a rising channel after a strong bounce from the 7,580 area. The overall structure remains positive, with higher highs and higher lows, but momentum is slowing as the index approaches resistance. This week’s high of 7,632 is a key resistance to watch and a break above could trigger a next leg higher. On the downside, 7,612 is immediate support, aligned with the rising trendline, and acts as the first level buyers need to defend. A break below 7612 would weaken the short-term bullish structure and could lead to a pullback towards the 7,580–7,570 support zone.
The dollar’s recovery over the past two sessions is real but fragile, and the charts explain why. This is not a fundamental shift in sentiment; it is a borrowed bid driven by the petrodollar mechanism. With Iran launching fresh missile and drone attacks on regional neighbours and CENTCOM retaliating on Qeshm Island, oil spiked and dollar liquidity demand followed. The Bloomberg correlation matrix confirms this precisely, oil and DXY carry a +0.329 positive correlation, meaning oil strength is directly feeding dollar demand. But this fuel has limits. WTI is now facing stiff resistance at 97.79, and without a convincing break above that level, the catalyst driving the dollar higher simply runs dry.
The macro picture adds another layer of caution for dollar bulls. The 10Y Treasury yield is sitting at critical support at 4.431%, inside a descending wedge since the May 21 peak near 4.68%. Yields are trending lower, not higher, and a breakdown from here removes the last fundamental pillar underpinning the greenback. Meanwhile, today’s ADP and ISM Services PMI, followed by Friday’s NFP, remain pivotal. Any softness in labour data would swiftly expose this rally as purely geopolitical in nature.
Technically, the DXY is pressing against the 99.380 resistance zone, a level that has capped every rally since mid-May, with the descending trendline from April highs converging right here. A failure to close above 99.38 keeps the structure bearish, with support at 98.940 and 98.615 below. EUR/USD remains the mirror trade, dips toward 1.162, remain buyable, with 1.170+ the target on a DXY rejection. Watch oil first. The dollar will follow. Sell DXY at 99.38. Buy EUR/USD dips toward 1.1620
Crude Oil
Oil is up for a fourth straight session amid fresh signs of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The commodity has gained over 7% in the first two sessions of this week alone. While negotiations are underway, there is no clarity about a lasting peace agreement yet. In fact, both countries exchanged fire briefly, while offering conflicting remarks about how the talks are progressing. This has raised concerns about the future of crude oil flowing through the critical waterway in the Strait of Hormuz. Since a deal has not yet materialized, there is a possibility that the global economy will need to tap into more reserves to meet demand. The third quarter begins next month and is historically one of high seasonal demand for crude oil. Production in the U.S. has reached capacity, while OPEC+ members are holding output steady. Meanwhile, non-OPEC supply from countries like Brazil, Guyana, and Canada continues to build up.
Brent closed above the 9-SMA on the day chart in yesterday’s session, which currently sits at $97.75, offering support. Brent is up 1.90% for the day at $100.78, with 21-SMA resistance at $103.90. It could test this level and consolidate until fresh catalysts emerge or fresh headlines are reported about the ongoing negotiations. WTI, on the other hand, is up 2.30% at $97.72, with immediate 21-SMA resistance at $98.69. A break above this level could potentially result in a climb up to $102.50. Meanwhile, it has 9-SMA support at $94.54 on the day chart with the next support at $89.97.
Gold & Silver
Gold is seeing downward pressure today, currently trading at $4,462. Geopolitical risks remain in focus after news of renewed instability began yesterday between Iran, Bahrain and Kuwait and diplomatics efforts between the US and Iran have still not seen progress. Investors weigh escalating Middle East tensions against a stronger rate outlook. Bullion remains under pressure from a cautious US Dollar backdrop, limiting safe-haven inflows even with geopolitical uncertainty.
Rising oil prices have strengthened inflation concerns and raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary stance while still waiting for US labour market data coming later this week. Crude oil prices have pushed higher amid fears of tighter supply conditions and ongoing disruptions to regional energy flows, adding another layer of inflation risk for global markets.
Silver is also trading slightly lower today at $74,19, as concerns over the global macroeconomic outlook and softer industrial sentiment weigh on prices. The metal remains sensitive to shifts based on economic growth expectations and energy prices than gold. Volatility in oil markets might also be continuing to cap upside momentum for industrial precious metals.
Technically, Gold continues to trade within a weaker near-term structure on the, with immediate support now placed near $4,432, followed by stronger downside protection around $4,372, which marks the recent low region from last week. On the upside, immediate resistance is positioned near $4,567, while a sustained recovery could bring the next major resistance zone around $4,700 bringing the early May breakout zone into focus. Silver also remains soft on the with immediate support placed near $74.00, followed by stronger support around the $71.91 on 28th May’s low area. On the higher side, resistance is now seen near $78, while a decisive break above this level could open the path toward the $80.00 resistance band.
