U.S. Markets
U.S. stock futures traded lower on Friday as investors awaited the release of the May Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh insight into labor market conditions and the likely path of Federal Reserve policy. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is down 0.41%, while the Nasdaq 100 is lower by 0.83%.
Last session highlighted a shift in market leadership. The S&P 500 gained 0.41%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.53%, as investors rotated out of AI-linked technology stocks and into financials and other cyclical sectors. The DJIA surged nearly 900 points to a record high after reversing losses from the previous session.
The move was largely driven by Broadcom’s disappointing outlook, which pressured semiconductor stocks and challenged one of the market’s strongest leadership themes. Information Technology was the worst-performing sector in the last session, while Healthcare led gains. Financials also was a gainer, second to healthcare, as banks and alternative asset managers attracted strong inflows as investors diversified away from crowded AI trades.
Despite the rotation, the broader market remains resilient. So far, the S&P 500 is up slightly on the week and is on track for a tenth consecutive weekly gain, which would mark its longest winning streak since 1985. Market breadth improved significantly in yesterday’s session, suggesting that investors are possibly becoming more comfortable looking beyond technology for opportunities.
On the technical front, 7550 continues to hold as an important near-term support, with the next downside level coming in around yesterday’s low near 7524. Momentum isn’t showing any strong directional bias at the moment, with RSI sitting around 42.6. Price action still reflects pressure after failing to break above the descending trendline resistance yesterday, and that level remains important going into today’s session as well. On the upside, the 7575–7600 zone is the immediate hurdle, and a clean move above this range would be needed to shift the tone back towards strength. Until then, the market is likely to stay range-bound with a mild bearish undertone.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar is holding its ground around 99.33 ahead of the most important data point of the week, and the broader backdrop continues to favour the bulls. Markets are treading carefully as NFP approaches, with consensus pencilling in 85,000–88,000 jobs added in May against a whisper number of 99,000, a gap that leaves room for an upside surprise. Any confirmation of labour market resilience hands the Fed additional justification to hike, an outcome that would extend the dollar’s rebound from last month’s lows meaningfully.
The geopolitical picture remains the dominant macro driver. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has declared the Strait of Hormuz within Iranian and Omani territorial waters and labelled US regional bases as active targets, language that effectively kills near-term optimism around a deal. Global crude imports are running at roughly 80% of pre-war averages, and with inventory buffers thinning, oil is far more likely to grind toward $100 than retreat. The petrodollar correlation remains the trade of this cycle, the oil-dollar beta has flipped entirely positive, meaning every leg higher in crude amplifies dollar strength rather than suppressing it. Leveraged funds have been adding to bullish dollar positions, taking them to the highest since early April.
Eurozone inflation climbed to 3.2% in May with core at 2.5% and services at 3.5%, keeping ECB hike bets alive and providing some floor for EUR/USD. However, with the Fed equally hawkish and the dollar carrying the additional geopolitical bid, the euro’s upside remains capped.
Technically, the DXY has reclaimed 99.208 as a floor and is pressing against R1 at 99.407–99.408. A close above opens R2 at 99.830–99.872. Support sits at 99.208, then 98.940, then 98.617. EUR/USD faces immediate resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1675–1.1680, followed by the 1.1710 confluence of the 200-period SMA and 50% retracement. Support at 1.1638, then the critical floor at 1.1574, a break there reopens the broader bearish phase. NFP is the trigger. A strong print above the whisper number of 99,000 breaks the dollar higher. Anything below 85,000 unwinds the week’s gains sharply.
Gold & Silver
Gold bounced from its 200-day SMA yesterday at $4,500, up approximately 1.5%, the highest in the last two sessions, but has seen a short decline and is currently trading at $4,451. Upside momentum might remain limited as investors continue to weigh persistent geopolitical events in the Middle East against expectations that the US Federal Reserve could maintain higher interest rates for longer.
While investors are still monitoring political uncertainty, the concerns of broader regional escalation between Israel and Lebanon have slightly eased than earlier this week. President Donald Trump has also announced that peace negotiations were approaching their final stage and is reportedly reluctant to re-enter full-scale war with Iran despite recent tensions. Despite the recent support, gold remains on track for a potential decline given continued energy disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices elevated.
Silver currently trading at $72.49 is seeing a decline after yesterday’s high at $74 and was holding above its key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Looking ahead investors will focus on Friday’s released US inflation data. Federal Reserve commentary and further labour market updates can guide the path of interest rates, and any signs of cooling inflation could further pressure the US Dollar and support gold and silver prices.
Technically, Gold had rebounded from its 200-Day SMA and is now testing resistance $4,575. A sustained break above this level could open the path toward the $4,757 resistance zone. On the downside, immediate support is seen near $4,366 on 28th May’s low, followed by stronger support around $4,319. Silver remains with immediate resistance near $75.80. A break above this level could target the $78 region, while support remains near $69 region.
Crude Oil
After yesterday’s decline, which was triggered by a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, oil is now holding steady. Brent is down 0.4% for the day at $97.87, trading just above 9-SMA support at $97.50. Despite efforts to extend the ceasefire and reach a lasting deal, uncertainty remains elevated. In fact, there are considerable mixed signals on how peace talks are progressing, infusing some element of geopolitical risk premium in the oil markets. As a result, Brent is up 1.60% so far this week, while WTI is up over 5% this week. Constructive headlines surrounding peace negotiations may temporarily limit further upside in crude prices, but they are unlikely to trigger a significant decline on their own. Until there is clear evidence of de-escalation and a normalization of supply conditions, geopolitical risk premiums are likely to remain embedded in the market. In fact, global crude oil imports are about a fifth lower than pre-war levels, with shipments running at 80% of pre-war averages. Meanwhile, President Trump said ceasefire talks with Iran were in the final stages, while Iran’s foreign minister said talks had stalled. Additionally, militant groups contradicted this by rejecting the US-brokered peace deal in Lebanon.
Brent, which is trading at $97.87, has support around $97.50, marked by the 9-day SMA and roughly aligning with the late-March lows. It could potentially consolidate above this level until further catalysts emerge. A breakthrough in peace negotiations could spark a drop to around $93.97 and further down to $87.31, which reflects the 17 April low. However, any escalation in tensions could take the commodity up to $102.13, marked by the 50-EMA resistance. WTI is down 0.44% for the day at $94.50, with immediate 9-SMA support at $94.14, followed by the next support around $92.13. Sustained moves above $95.73 could take WTI higher to $99.16 and further up to $103.20
