US equity markets witnessed a sharp rebound in Thursday’s session, with the SPX index recovering 1.83% and the NDX index jumping 3.40% by closing. Both indices trade relatively flat during the Asian session on Friday and are now about 3% and 4.45% lower than their all-time highs achieved earlier in the month.
Markets breathed a sigh of relief after US President Donald Trump signalled signing a peace deal with Iran, suggesting a drop in geopolitical tensions coming fairly quickly. Oil prices have already reacted, with WTI falling below the $90 mark, indicating the easing of tensions. Aside from that, markets were led higher by the Materials sector (+3.26%), Industrials sector (+3.25%), and Info Tech sector (2.94%) on Thursday. All attention on Friday will be on the listing of the biggest IPO in history, SpaceX, under the ticker SPCX on the NYSE. The company has set a price of $135 per share, putting its valuation at $1.77 trillion, with the IPO planned to raise about $75 billion, more than triple the size of Alibaba’s $22 billion offering in 2014, which holds the title for the biggest US IPO to date. This already marks today as an historic event and expectations of market volatility for today remain tilted to the higher side.
From a technical standpoint, the SPX index clearly bounced after taking support near its 50-day EMA and respecting a bullish RSI divergence, touching the price lows from 5th, 8th, 9th, and 11th June on the 4-hour charts. The SPX index is now near its 9- and 21-day EMAs and can see an acceleration in upside momentum if it breaks above the $7420 mark.
US Dollar Index
DXY was under pressure yesterday as a potential US-Iran deal dragged oil prices and treasury yields lower. In the ongoing session, it is trading steadily around $99.81 as traders question the prospect of an imminent deal. The US rate outlook helps to retain the moderately bullish bias.
President Donald Trump retreated on his threats of military strikes against Iran and said a potential peace agreement with Iran could be signed as soon as this weekend in Europe. This pushed oil prices lower, and 10-year Treasury yields slipped 9.5 bps to close below 4.5%. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May (6.5% YoY vs expected 6.4% YoY), marking the largest annual gain in 3.5 years as the Middle East conflict drove up energy costs. Together with earlier figures showing consumer inflation accelerated to a three-year high, the latest PPI data is likely to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year. This will provide a floor for the US dollar. The euro increased to 1.156, holding near its strongest in a week after the European Central Bank’s first interest rate hike of 25bps in three years on Thursday. However, its upside will be capped as it trades within a descending channel formed since mid-April. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is trading at around 160.33 per dollar, prompting concerns about potential official intervention by Tokyo.
Technically, DXY remains supported in an ascending channel, with the lower channel line around $99.45 acting as initial support, followed by last Friday’s low at $99.16. On the flipside, initial resistance could be around last Friday’s high of $100.10, followed by the $100.40. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.156; the initial resistance appears at the 20-day EMA of 1.160. On the flip side, support is likely at yesterday’s open of 1.153.
Crude Oil
WTI is down slightly, by about 0.25%, today, trading at $84.63.
From a fundamental standpoint, WTI continues to trade on headlines. President Donald Trump retreated on his threats of military strikes against Iran and said a potential peace agreement with Iran could be signed as soon as this weekend in Europe. This pushed the oil prices lower. However, Cushing stocks are at 21.6 million barrels after last week’s 800,000-barrel draw. Operational minimum at Cushing is in the range of 18-20 million barrels. At an average draw of 500,000 barrels, another 2-4 weeks max before this level is reached, and WTI might start repricing higher if flows do not resume by mid-late July. If oil supplies do not return to normal by mid-July, the Brent-WTI spread could widen. This occurs because Brent (the international benchmark) surges in response to global supply disruptions and immediate physical shortages, while WTI (the U.S. benchmark) is often anchored by domestic supply, resulting in a larger price differential. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.25.
From a technical standpoint, WTI has 100-day SM support at $85 and horizontal support at $80-$83. Hence, some stabilisation around this price level is expected; a break of the $80 support brings in more downside.
Today, Gold decreased by 0.85% to $4,176, while silver decreased 1% to $66.69.
After a battered week that had seen gold test YTD lows near $4,000, its lowest level since November 2025, prices staged an epic turnaround yesterday. Gold leapt about 3.5% to $4,220 after President Trump announced that the US and Iran were close to a deal, possibly as soon as the weekend, sending the US Dollar lower and supporting the non-yielding metal. Importantly, this relief rally comes despite continued deterioration in the inflation landscape, PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, above April’s 5.7% and the 6.4% consensus.
Gold is trading near $4,176 on Friday, consolidating the previous session’s impressive rebound. Iran pushed back that it had not reached a conclusion on any agreement. Leaving markets once again stuck between conflicting headlines. Gold is on track for a second straight weekly loss, having tested YTD lows near the $4,000 level; the May CPI was confirmed at 4.2% YoY, the highest reading since April 2023, Â driven in part by the energy surge tied directly to the Iran conflict, while markets are now pricing one Fed hike by December.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presides over his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17, where he is expected to end forward guidance, introducing fresh uncertainty about the future rate path that is structurally bearish for the non-yielding asset.
Meanwhile, Central bank net purchases in Q1 2026 reached 244 tonnes, up 3% YoY. A rate of buying that is supporting the market on dips and bolstering the broader $4,000/oz-as-a-floor theme even in an outright bear case.
Gold trended lower through $4,300, $4,200, and $4,100 before flushing all the way down to an intraday low of $4,023 on June 11, the weakest print since late March. Despite RSI getting oversold, selling pressure persisted until an aggressive, late-session reversal started to print higher lows until nearly all of the day’s losses were recovered. Gold is now consolidating right below the $4,200. A 4H close above this level would leave a runway to $4,295; and  failure to hold $4,145 risks a full retrace back to the $4,023–4,050 flush lows.
Silver experienced the same. It capitulated to a $61.00 low on June 11, the lowest since December 2025, before closing at $67.35. Today, Silver is holding near the previous day’s highs. Resistance can be seen near $68.30 and $69.70, and support at $65.2-$63.5.
