Dubai, UAE – Oct. 2026 – Commodity prices are set to rise 23 percent in 2026 as several global shocks hit at once, the World Bank Group said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The conflict in the Middle East has drawn down oil inventories and is expected to push energy prices to a four-year high. Disrupted grain shipments and El Niño are also threatening harvests and food affordability.
Energy prices are projected to climb 32 percent this year, reversing three years of declines, before moderating in 2027. Brent crude is forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, and to ease to $79 in 2027.
Global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2 percent in 2026, the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Consumption is projected to decline 2.5 percent, the third-largest annual contraction on record after 2020 and 1980.
High prices and supply shortages are curbing demand, while electrification, particularly in China, is also reducing oil use. Production still remains below consumption, forcing further withdrawals from oil stocks and leaving markets more exposed to renewed disruption.
Food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10 percent in 2026 and another 7 percent in 2027, a cumulative increase of 18 percent.
The bank pointed to conflict-related disruption to grain shipments, the threat El Niño poses to harvests, and high fuel and fertilizer costs. Fertilizer prices are set to rise 14 percent in 2026, after an early-year surge in urea prices that has since eased, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Metals are forecast to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25 percent, with aluminum, copper and tin all hitting record prices. The bank attributed the gains to strong demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers, along with supply disruptions this year.
Metals prices are expected to fall 3 percent in 2027. Precious metals are forecast to surge 40 percent in 2026 as investors keep seeking safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty. They are expected to moderate somewhat in 2027 but remain more than three times their 2015–19 average.
Overall, commodity prices are forecast to decline 7 percent in 2027 after this year’s rise.
Risks to the outlook
The forecasts assume no major intensification of conflicts affecting global commodity supplies. Energy prices could climb further if the Middle East conflict escalates and damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure persists.
The bank also warned that higher-than-expected energy prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño could combine to trigger a food crisis, pushing more people into extreme poverty, similar to the situation in the early 2010s.
In that adverse scenario, Brent could average $105 a barrel in 2027, and food commodity prices could be 12 percent higher than in the baseline forecast, surpassing their 2022 level.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
“Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth. The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens.”
World Bank support
To help countries manage the fallout, the World Bank Group has made $50 billion to $60 billion available through existing instruments, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing.
The funds can support social safety nets for the most vulnerable, boost fiscal capacity, and provide working capital and liquidity for firms and farms.
The institution said it has also made progress in accelerating and simplifying its ability to mobilize private capital alongside its own financing and knowledge services.
That, it said, leaves it well positioned to invest in the next generation of youth in developing countries, chiefly by improving conditions for job creation.
