New risks raise global pandemic threat

A perfect storm of vulnerabilities

Recent outbreaks of diseases like the Marburg virus, Mpox, and the latest strain of avian influenza (H5N1) have highlighted the world’s vulnerability to pandemics. In 2024 alone, there have already been 17 outbreaks of dangerous diseases, each exposing cracks in the global system’s ability to prevent and respond to pandemics.

According to a new report from the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), various factors increase the likelihood of future pandemic risks.

The GPMB, an initiative supported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank, tracks pandemic risks and works to ensure that the global community is prepared for health crises. The report, launched at the 15th World Health Summit in Berlin, identifies 15 key drivers of pandemic risk and groups them into five categories: social, technological, environmental, economic, and political.

The report stresses the urgent need to reassess global pandemic preparedness, warning that new risks are emerging outside traditional health-related threats. In particular, the rise of digital connectivity, while enabling quicker sequencing of pathogens and more rapid responses from scientists, has also exposed global health systems to cyber-attacks, biosecurity threats, and the spread of misinformation, increasing the risk of a pandemic.

No waiting

Joy Phumaphi, Co-Chair of the GPMB and former Minister of Health for Botswana, said, “The next pandemic will not wait for us to perfect our systems. We must invest now in resilient and equitable primary healthcare systems to withstand the challenges of tomorrow.”

The GPMB’s report highlights the complex, interconnected nature of these risks. Factors like distrust between countries, inequity in healthcare access, intensive farming practices, and the potential for diseases to jump from animals to humans are all contributing to the rising threat of pandemics.

Our world’s growing interconnectedness and environmental changes create a perfect storm of vulnerabilities that could fuel the spread of dangerous diseases across borders.

Another critical factor outlined in the report is the political and social environment, which profoundly impacts pandemic preparedness. There is an ongoing lack of trust between nations, particularly when sharing data or collaborating on health efforts. This, combined with inequalities in access to healthcare, leaves some regions far more vulnerable to pandemics than others.

Moreover, issues such as intense global travel and urbanisation mean that outbreaks can spread more quickly than ever, making rapid responses even more critical. The GPMB also identifies the role of intensive farming practices, which increase the likelihood of zoonotic diseases—those that jump from animals to humans—emerging and spreading.

Technology’s role

The report also points to technology’s role in mitigating and exacerbating pandemic risk. While advancements in science and technology have made it easier to respond to outbreaks, they have also opened new vulnerabilities.

The threat of cyber-attacks on health infrastructure is growing. Attackers could disrupt disease surveillance or hinder response efforts. Furthermore, the rapid spread of false information through digital platforms can confuse and thwart public health efforts.

On the environmental front, climate change also increases the likelihood of pandemics. Changes in weather patterns, deforestation, and disruptions to ecosystems are altering the habitats of animals and insects, which could increase the transmission of diseases.

To mitigate the risks outlined in the report, the GPMB calls for a radical overhaul in how the world approaches pandemic preparedness. The report stresses that preparedness should focus on healthcare systems and consider the interconnected nature of human, animal, and environmental health. This calls for collaboration across sectors—health, animal health, environmental protection, and beyond.

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Co-Chair of the GPMB and former President of Croatia, said, “We have a narrow window of opportunity to rethink global preparedness: to assess risks that extend well beyond the health sector and to address some of these far more proactively, in a way that is adapted to each context.”

She added that vigilance, adaptability, and collaboration must now define global preparation efforts to build these principles into future responses.

Key recommendations

One of the report’s key recommendations is that nations must invest in strengthening their health systems, especially in underserved regions. As the GPMB points out, a nation’s GDP is not necessarily a measure of its resilience to pandemics. The focus should instead be on ensuring that essential health services are available to everyone, particularly the most vulnerable communities.

Preparedness plans must also be flexible enough to respond to various potential scenarios. The report warns that future pandemics will not follow the same path as Covid-19, and lessons learned from the previous pandemic should inform but not dictate how the world prepares for the next one.

The report concludes by emphasising the need for a global response to disease outbreaks. The interconnectedness of today’s world means no country can stand alone regarding pandemic preparedness. Policymakers are urged to adapt existing health strategies and regularly review and update their plans to ensure they remain effective in the face of changing risks.

Resilience in future health emergencies will depend on sustained investment in research and development, improved healthcare infrastructure, and a greater understanding of the dynamic nature of pandemic risks. The GPMB’s work serves as a call to action for the global community to take collective responsibility for disease prevention and response rather than viewing preparedness as the responsibility of individual countries or sectors.

FAQs

What is the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB)?

The GPMB is an independent body supported by the WHO and the World Bank. It monitors global preparedness for pandemics and disease outbreaks and provides comprehensive appraisals of international progress in pandemic preparedness.

According to the GPMB, what are the main drivers of pandemic risk?

The GPMB identifies five critical categories of drivers: social, technological, environmental, economic, and political. These factors, including inequity, digital connectivity, and climate change, increase the likelihood of future pandemics.

Why is digital connectivity a double-edged sword in pandemic preparedness?

While digital connectivity allows for faster pathogen data sharing and scientific collaboration, it also exposes health systems to cyber-attacks, biosecurity risks, and the spread of misinformation, all of which can complicate pandemic response efforts.

What role do intensive farming practices play in pandemic risk?

Intensive farming increases the likelihood of zoonotic diseases or diseases that jump from animals to humans. This is a significant risk factor in the emergence of new pandemics.

What does the GPMB suggest nations do to improve pandemic preparedness?

The GPMB advocates investing in resilient healthcare systems, ensuring equitable access to health services, and fostering cross-sector collaboration. It stresses the need for flexible, regularly updated preparedness plans to adapt to different pandemic scenarios.

Hero image: The GPMB report warns that future pandemics will not follow the same path as Covid-19. Credit: Anna Shvets