- U.S. Markets
The S&P 500 ended Tuesday’s trading session 0.65% lower and marks its third day in the red as bond yields still remain elevated.
On Tuesday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield topped 5.19%, marking its highest level in nearly 19 years. The 10-year Treasury yield at one point hit 4.687% to reach its highest level since January 2025. Rates have spiked in recent days after a series of economic reports last week revealed that inflation may be reigniting.
Today’s major event that investors are looking out for are Nvidia’s earnings. The company reports its first-quarter earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell. The report will be an important view into the artificial intelligence trade and provide the latest update on the demand for chips. The chipmaker and AI darling has contributed about 20% of the S&P 500′s returns this year and almost that much of the broad market index’s earnings growth in 2026. Markets are also anticipating the Fed meeting minutes, which will be released after the market opens.
Technically, the index has broken below the 9 EMA support, adding a bearish tone for the day. It still remains above the 21 EMA with 5-period RSI is around 48, indicating the overall uptrend is still intact. On the 1-hour chart, the index is trading below the downward trendline connecting 15th, 18th, and 19th May highs. Immediate support is at $7,338, which coincides with the 8th May breakout, followed by the $7,300 level which is the 6th May breakout. Immediate resistance is at the 200 SMA level of $7,400, followed by the $7,430 level.
- U.S. Dollar Index
The DXY increased by 0.36% yesterday; however, for three days straight, it has failed to push past the $99.40 resistance. Currently, DXY stands at $99.36.
The most noteworthy development from yesterday came from Federal Reserve circles. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson said the current level of US interest rates is appropriate and continues to exert downward pressure on inflation, even as price pressures remain elevated.
On the geopolitical front, the Iran situation remains the wildcard. Although oil prices eased after reports that NATO is considering measures to help secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if it remains closed into July, energy costs remain elevated enough to keep inflation worries firmly in focus. President Trump has warned the US could resume strikes on Iran within “two or three days” if Tehran fails to agree to Washington’s peace terms, with the prolonged conflict keeping the strategic Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and pushing oil prices higher.
On a technical level, the DXY is trading above its 9-, 21-, 50, 100 and 200-day SMAs. Moreover, on the monthly chart, it is currently on a multi-decade trendline connecting the lows of 2011, 2021, and 2026. On the upside, potential resistance lies at 99.40, a level tested previously in January and March. Since the past three days, the Dollar has tried to break past the resistance; however, it has been unable to do so. A break above this level may push the DXY to $100. On the downside, potential support lies at 98.98, which coincides with the 50-day SMA.
- Crude Oil
Oil edged lower in today’s session as markets assessed President Trump’s latest remarks on the tensions brewing between the U.S. and Iran. He claimed that Iran was seeking a swift deal and that the war would end soon. However, he also threatened retaliation if Iran rejected America’s peace terms and demands to give up enriched uranium. Meanwhile, rising inflation has sparked a jump in global bond yields, with the 2-year yield at 4.09%, 10-year yield at 4.65%, and the 30-year yield at 5.17%. This has prompted oil to gradually edge lower. On the other hand, the White House continues to resist calls to curb oil exports despite tightening domestic inventories. Industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 9.1 million barrels last week — potentially the largest weekly draw since September if confirmed by official government figures due later on Wednesday. This in turn is providing an anchor to oil prices.
These conflicting factors have kept oil-range bound over the last few sessions. Brent, which is down 0.59% at $112.14, has consolidated between $106.70 and $114 over the last ten sessions. It has strong support at $110.80, roughly where the 9-day and 21-day SMA merge on the daily chart. A dip below this could result in a fall to $105.71. On the other hand, a rebound could trigger a jump up to $115.57 and further up to $120. WTI is down 0.96% at $107.04, with 9-SMA support at $103.10 and resistance around $111.30. Until a fresh catalyst emerges, oil could remain within this range. If the short-term SMA support levels are broken, then the dip could intensify.
- Gold and Silver
Precious metals remain pressured as delays in resolving the US-Iran conflict keep energy prices elevated, supporting the ascent of treasury yields. Gold is trading slightly lower at around $4,480, after closing down 1.81% yesterday. Silver is trading slightly higher today, around $74, after falling 5.18% yesterday. Silver is showing more volatile price moves than gold. The path of least resistance for precious metals remains lower.
President Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran in the coming days as part of a push to end the war, less than a day after saying he had just called off a US attack. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.68% Tuesday, its highest intraday level since January 2025. Similarly, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury also climbed to a new 18-year high near 5.2%. The Iran conflict isn’t the only factor pushing yields higher. The other factor has been growing fiscal concerns about additional government spending to stimulate economic growth. The dimming upside for precious metals is also due to TIPS yields (real yields) having surged, suggesting investors anticipate an increase in inflation-adjusted borrowing costs. The 10-year TIPS yield is near 2.17%, up from 1.92% at the end of last month. This has also supported the US dollar, which is building on last week’s gains. A lack of fresh inflows into gold ETFs, with global holdings flat-lining over the past month, points to subdued participation and a market awaiting a clearer catalyst. Pockets of support remain in the form of continued central bank buying of precious metals. But this is unlikely to be strong enough to offset the headwinds.
Technically, for gold, resistance remains close to this week’s high of $4,590 and the 38.2% Fib retracement level. A break higher could see a test of last Friday’s open near $4,660. On the flipside, support could be seen near $4,400, followed by the 200-day EMA at $4,350. For silver, resistance could be near $77 (yesterday’s open), and support is likely at $72 (38.2% Fib retracement).
