Global air travellers’ numbers poised to soar to 22.3 billion by 2053
Despite short-term uncertainties
Airports Council International (ACI) World has unveiled its projected Airport Traffic Forecasts for 2024-2053, forecasting significant global passenger traffic growth over the next three decades.
According to the latest report, global passenger numbers are expected to soar to 17.7 billion by 2043 and 22.3 billion by 2053—nearly 2.4 times the projected volume for 2024.
The comprehensive forecasts, which encompass 99.8% of global markets across 161 countries, predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% from 2024 to 2043, with growth slowing slightly to 3% from 2024 to 2053.
These projections signal a steady and sustained rise in global aviation, underpinned by factors such as an expanding middle class in emerging markets, growing international travel, and ongoing investments in airport infrastructure.
However, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, with geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and issues like trade shifts, reintroduced tariffs and supply chain bottlenecks potentially slowing the recovery in certain regions.
Despite these challenges, ACI World Director General Justin Erbacci remains optimistic, highlighting that global air travel is poised for long-term growth.
“Despite the challenges in the near term, global air travel is poised for steady, sustained growth. Airports, airlines, and policymakers must take bold, forward-thinking action to anticipate and meet future demands,” said Erbacci.
“ACI World remains unwavering in its commitment to support its airport members, helping them navigate evolving dynamics and seize opportunities ahead.”
Key long-term highlights
- Global passenger traffic growth: From 2024 to 2043, global passenger traffic is set to grow at a CAGR of 3.4%, reaching 17.7 billion passengers. By 2053, global passenger traffic is forecast to double, rising to 22.3 billion, reflecting a slightly slower CAGR of 3% from 2024 to 2053.
- Domestic vs. international traffic: International passenger traffic will outpace domestic traffic growth over the next three decades. Between 2024 and 2053, global traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3%, while domestic traffic will expand at a slightly slower pace of 2.8%.
- Growth in emerging markets: The report underscores continued strong growth in emerging markets, driven by a burgeoning middle class and rising demand for air travel. Investment in airport infrastructure in these regions will be crucial to supporting this expansion.
- Air cargo growth: Global air cargo is also expected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 2.7% from 2024 to 2043 and 2.4% from 2024 to 2053. However, ACI World cautions that changing trade policies and ongoing supply chain disruptions could introduce volatility in the sector.
- Aircraft movements: The number of aircraft movements globally is projected to increase significantly, reaching 149 million by 2043 and 176 million by 2053. To accommodate this surge, airports must enhance operational efficiency and invest heavily in infrastructure.
To assist airport planners and investors navigate this evolving landscape, ACI World’s Traffic Forecasts 2024–2053 include detailed projections for total passengers (domestic and international), air cargo volumes, and total aircraft movements. A new forecasting methodology based on advanced machine learning techniques has also been introduced, ensuring greater accuracy and relevance for long-term data-driven decision-making.
With the aviation industry at a crucial juncture, the latest report serves as a vital tool for stakeholders to prepare for the future and secure the necessary infrastructure investments to support this expected surge in global air traffic.
Image: Passengers head to the immigration counters at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport in Madrid, Spain, on February 23, 2025. Credit: Arnold Pinto
Last Updated on 1 day by Arnold Pinto
