- Crude Oil
Crude Oil prices rallied to a weekly high on Monday, with WTI up 2.79% and Brent up 2.89% by close. This was driven as investors digested President Trump’s threat towards Russia. He stated that Russia would be given a new deadline of 10 to 12 days to make progress towards ending the war with Ukraine, with failure to do so resulting in 100% tariffs on countries continuing to buy Russian exports, which could severely impact Russia’s oil flows and support the commodity. Additionally, reports of a possible extension of existing US-China trade tariffs are lifting hopes for improved economic activity in the largest oil consumers, boding well for oil demand prospects. This adds to the recent optimism created by the US-EU and US-Japan trade deals, easing market jitters.
During Tuesday’s Asian session, both oil instruments traded slightly lower, with WTI about 0.58% lower and Brent about 0.45% lower. From a technical perspective, WTI bounced back from the crucial $66 level, which has served as support for prices for more than a month. Prices formed a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, crossing above the 9- and 21-SMAs, indicating short-term bullishness. The 200-day SMA near $68.39 acts as immediate resistance, with a potential breakout above the level that could serve as a catalyst to reach the $70.02 level from the July 14th highs.
- Cryptocurrency
The cryptocurrency market traded higher on Tuesday, with Bitcoin inching closer to the $118,000 mark and Ethereum leading gains among altcoins. Bitcoin was up 1% at $118,493, while Ethereum surged 1.5% to $3,857. Ethereum continued to outperform Bitcoin, adding to its recent strong performance. ETH touched $3,900 yesterday and making its 59% surge over the past month. Big money is pouring into Ethereum, with ETF inflows topping $2.2 billion last week, actually outpacing Bitcoin’s numbers.
The bullish trend in Ethereum, backed by growing institutional interest, is prompting some market watchers to call this period an “Ethereum season” – a trend that has historically triggered rallies in other altcoins as well.
Despite its recent rally, Bitcoin remains just shy of breaking above the $120,000 resistance level. Bitcoin continues to hover just shy of the $120,000 mark, catching its breath after bouncing back from its latest pullback. Key support levels are currently at $116,411 and $115,000, while the next major resistance stands around $138,000.
The recent price movement has also been supported by macroeconomic developments. Bitcoin’s rally above $116,000 coincided with easing geopolitical tensions after the U.S. and China agreed to delay mutual trade tariffs.
- Gold
Gold slipped 0.7% in Monday’s session as the greenback strengthened in the wake of the U.S.-EU trade deal and the possibility that China’s tariff deadline could be extended by 90 days. This marks the dollar’s first monthly gain in 2025 and is exerting temporary pressure on gold. Nevertheless, the key catalysts that drove gold up over a quarter this year remain intact. These include safe-haven demand in the event of a flare-up in geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty, strong purchases by central banks worldwide, and an uptick in inflows into gold-backed ETFs. However, in the short term, gold has been trading in a tight range between $3,260 and $3,445 over the last few months, after briefly spiking above a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22.
A plethora of economic reports will likely influence gold’s trajectory this week, including job reports, inflation data, estimates of second-quarter economic growth, and the FOMC meeting. Although the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, Powell’s remarks will be parsed for signs of a tilt in monetary policy over the upcoming months. Gold is up 0.07% for the day at $3,318, with 100-SMA support at $3,260 on the day chart. It has immediate resistance in the $3,343-$3,350 region, marked by the near-confluence 9-SMA, 21-SMA, and 50-SMA.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 399.50 per gram
22 Carat – AED 370.00 per gram
21 Carat – AED 354.75 per gram
18 Carat – AED 304.00 per gram
- US Market
U.S. markets closed mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 inching up 0.02% to $6,389.77, its 15th record close of 2025, while the Nasdaq gained 0.33% to $21,178.58 and the Dow slipped 0.14% to $44,837.56. Early optimism from President Trump’s EU trade deal, which cut most tariffs to 15% from 30%, faded as traders turned their attention to U.S.–China talks ahead of Friday’s tariff deadline. With earnings season in full swing and the Fed set to deliver its policy decision tomorrow, sentiment is cautiously optimistic. If earnings meet expectations and the Fed strikes a dovish tone, markets could extend their rally to fresh record highs by week’s end. In the meantime, markets are expected to trade in a narrow range as traders await the release of major economic data and corporate earnings later this week.
Today’s macro focus is on CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) and JOLTS Job Openings (Jun), both due at 18:00 UAE. Confidence is forecast at 95.9 (prior 83.0) and job openings at 7.51M (prior 7.796M). Stronger readings could lift sentiment, while softer data may trigger short-term volatility. Earnings highlights for today include Visa, Procter & Gamble, Boeing, Merck, UPS, Starbucks, and PayPal. These results will be closely monitored for guidance trends, particularly in consumer demand and corporate spending.
Technically, the SPX is trading above all major moving averages, with an RSI near 75, signalling strong bullish momentum. Key resistance is at $6,400 and $6,450, while support is at $6,360 and $6,330
