- US MarketsÂ
After experiencing a steep selloff last week, U.S. indices ended the week with a rebound late Friday. This momentum appears to have continued at the beginning of this week, triggered by renewed hopes of a December rate cut. New York Fed President, John Williams, highlighted growing risks to employment and diminishing upside risks to inflation. His remarks coincided with the release of the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations, which were lower than earlier estimates. As a result, market participants ramped up bets of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Moreover, the U.S. is contemplating allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China, which further improved risk sentiment.
As a result, the S&P 500 rebounded from its 100-day SMA and is up 0.35% at $6,638. Interestingly, 447 of the 500 constituents of the index closed in positive territory on Friday, signaling good market breadth. The index has immediate support at $6,555, characterized by the 100-day SMA. It would have to recapture its upward sloping trendline and sustain above the 50-day moving average of $6,713 for the broader uptrend to gain further momentum.
- Crude OilÂ
Crude oil prices remain pressured amid sustained optimism from US-Ukraine talks, which is offsetting the risk of Russian supply disruptions. However, the upward movement remains limited due to the macro headwinds.
Currently, WTI oil remains at an increase of 0.26% to $57.87, while Brent oil remains at a rise of 0.15% to $61.87.
Some 48 million barrels of Russian oil remain languishing at sea due to U.S. sanctions, but weak consumption trends and OPEC+’s revised forecast of a surplus are pressuring the black gold. Meanwhile, uncertainties about Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations continue as the possibility of progress will remove the sanctions and unleash large amounts of parked oil onto the market.
Brent Crude Oil is currently consolidating within a narrow range. The 4-hour chart reflects a persistent downtrend from late June, with prices falling from around  $77 and forming lower highs and lower lows, signaling continued bearish control. The intraday volatility remains subdued, suggesting consolidation before the next move. Immediate support lies at  $61.50 and $61.00, while resistance is seen at $62.25 and $62.65; the bias stays bearish unless price closes above  $62.65.
WTI Price action shows consolidation below the psychological $58 level, with RSI below 40indicating continued bearish pressures. Key support lies at $57.50, with a break lower targeting $57.00, while resistance stands at $58.20–$59.54, and major resistance at $60 level. Current conditions suggest range-bound movement.
- U.S. Dollar IndexÂ
After languishing for the better part of 2025 due to Trump’s tariff policies and eventual monetary easing, U.S. Dollar Index the index plunged to a low of 96.83 by September 18, down from 108.48 at the start of the year. However, since then, the U.S. Dollar Index has managed to regain its footing after the Fed recently struck a cautious tone in the October FOMC meeting minutes about further policy easing. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index is currently holding at around the 100 level. However, this rebound stalled after New York President John Williams expressed that downside risks to employment had increased alongside a decline in the upside risks to inflation. Thus, his remarks raised the odds of a 25-basis point rate cut at the December meeting to 69%, higher than 44% expected a week earlier. The University of Michigan’s expectations for year-ahead inflation also eased to 4.5% from 4.7%, while their five-year projections declined to 3.4% from 3.6%.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.02% at 100.11, given the presence of the resistance zone between 100.27 and 100.54. This area capped the gains in late May, early August, and the first week of November. In the near-term, we can expect the dollar index to consolidate around current levels until further catalysts emerge that offer clarity on the Fed’s December move. This includes PPI and Retail Sales data for September, weekly jobless claims, and the Core PCE Price Index for September. The government shutdown, which recently ended, has resulted in a delay in the release of economic reports. Thus, forthcoming releases will offer more clarity on the path forward. A break above the resistance zone could take the dollar index to 101.68. Meanwhile, it has support at 9.881, which aligns with the mid-November low and the 50-day SMA.
- Gold & SilverÂ
Gold posted a 0.44% decline the previous week and remained range-bound on Monday, trading at $4,050, amid mixed Federal Reserve signals that kept traders cautious. New York Fed President John Williams’ dovish remarks boosted expectations of a December rate cut, with markets pricing in roughly a 70% probability, which normally benefits non-interest-bearing assets like gold. A stronger dollar and better risk appetite in Asian equities kept Gold under some pressure, while optimism surrounding a peace treaty on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East provided support.
Traders are now looking to this week’s heavy US data slate, including PPI, Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, Q3 GDP, and the PCE Price Index, for clearer direction on the Fed’s policy path. These releases will likely dictate near-term USD moves and, in turn, Gold’s momentum.
From a technical stance, Gold is holding above the ascending trendline formed by joining the lows of Sept 4, Nov 18, and Nov 21. A break below this zone could open the door to the 50-day SMA at $4,000. On the upside, resistance sits at $4,100, and a clean break may pave the way toward $4,150–$4,180.
Silver fell by 1.3% on Friday and is trading relatively flat, at $49.98 in today’s session. On the daily chart, it is trading below the 9-day SMA of 50.98, which appears to act as resistance for the white metal. A break above this level will propel the metal towards its next resistance at $52.33. Conversely, strong support is seen at the 50-day SMA at $48.42
