- US Markets
The S&P 500 extended its strong rebound, rising 1.43% in yesterday’s session, while the Nasdaq gained 2%, supported by a renewed tech-led rally. Optimism around a potential Federal Reserve rate cut continues to support sentiment, with the index currently trading at $6,703 in today’s session. Megacap technology stocks were the main drivers of the rally. Broadcom jumped 11.1% on improving AI infrastructure demand, while Alphabet advanced 6.3% as enthusiasm around Gemini 3 pushed its market value above Microsoft. Tesla rose 6.8% after Elon Musk highlighted progress on next generation AI chips, reinforcing confidence in the company’s innovation efforts. SanDisk (SNDK) also surged more than 13.33% after news of its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 index, reflecting strong momentum across storage-related sectors. Rate cut expectations continue to boost risk appetite. Markets are factoring in an 80.9% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Market participants will focus on today’s September PPI (MoM) and Core Retail Sales (MoM) data that is expected to offer key insights into underlying inflation pressures and the overall strength of the U.S. economy.
The SPX Index is currently trading above its 9 Day SMA at $6,666, which now serves as immediate support, followed by the ascending trendline support at $6,644. The major key support lies at $6,501 (horizontal base support). Immediate resistance lies at $6,781 (last week’s high), followed by $6,806 (20th October week high).
- Crude Oil
Today, Brent and WTI oil prices retreated to $63.20 per barrel and $58.71 per barrel, respectively.
According to the EIA report, Brent prices for Q1 2026 are already forecast at $54 per barrel. And analysts now project sustained supply glut levels of 2-4 million bbl per day through 2027, with a potential price drop to $52-$56, well below the current forward curve. At the same time, Sanctions against Russian major oil companies disrupted shipments to both India & China. However, the current usage of ‘dark fleets & middlemen by Russia’s oil industry might offset the damage.
On the 4-hour chart, Brent’s current structure suggests a bearish pullback within a broader downswing, unless price can reclaim the previous minor swing high at $63.6–$63.9 range. Selling pressure could continue, targeting a retest of $62.0–$61.8. A sustained 4H close above $63.6 would neutralize this view and open room toward $64.0–$64.5.
WTI shows a similar pattern, with a clear downtrend characterized by strong selling legs. Price is still trading below that $60 psychological level, keeping sellers in control. Rallies under $59.0 are likely to fade, with downside targets at $58.0 and $57.5.
- U.S. Dollar Index
Following last week’s rebound, the U.S. Dollar Index appears to have stabilized around the 100.17 level and has been consolidating near this threshold over the past four sessions. Recent dovish remarks from Fed policymakers like New York Fed President John Williams, who stated greater risks to employment than inflation, have bolstered rate cut expectations for December. Yesterday, Fed Governor Chris Waller also vocalized her support for a quarter-point reduction at the December meeting given the recent signs of weakness in the labor market. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said it would be harder to manage a larger deterioration in the labor market than a flare-up in inflation. As a result, as per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a December 25-basis-point rate increased to 80%, up from 30% over a week ago.
By virtue of these factors, the U.S. Dollar Index is expected to consolidate around these levels until forthcoming economic reports shed further light on the health of the labor market and inflation trends. These include the US ADP Employment Change, Retail Sales, and Producer Price, to name a few. If these reports come in stronger than expected, it could help the dollar index breach the resistance zone between 100.27 and 100.54, which capped gains in late May, early August, and the first week of November. This would open a pathway for a potential retest of 102.08, characterized by the mid-May highs. On the flip side, weakness in data could send the index lower to 98.50, marked by the 50-day SMA as well as the mid-November lows.
- Gold & Silver
Gold was up 1.7% yesterday, settling at $4,135, and has held steady in the early Asian session on Tuesday, trading around $4,144, supported by growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will deliver a December rate cut. Bullion’s surge was triggered by dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said the soft labour market justified easing as early as next month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market-implied odds of a December cut have jumped to over 80%, up significantly from the previous week.
While rising equity market risk appetite, combined with continued dollar strength, has capped gold’s gains, geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East remain a key support for gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. Traders are now focused on Tuesday’s PPI, Retail Sales, Pending Home Sales, and the Richmond Fed Index for further policy guidance.
On the daily chart, Gold is on the verge of a symmetrical triangle breakout, as it tests the $4,140 level. A clear breakthrough above this point will open the path toward $4,190-$4,220. Strong support is seen at the 9-SMA at $4,096.
Gold prices in the UAE are as follows –
24 Carat – AED 499.00
22 Carat – AED 462.00
21 Carat – AED 443.00
18 Carat – AED 379.75
Silver surged by 2.7% on Monday and is trading above yesterday’s high, around $51.45 in today’s session. From a technical standpoint, the white metal’s resistance is at 52.33. A break above this level may propel Silver towards its all-time highs of $54.47. Conversely, support is seen between the 9-day SMA at $50.95 and the 50-day SMA at $49.95.
