- US Markets
Market participants have been reacting to renewed trade tensions caused by US President Trump’s erratic approach to gaining control over Greenland, with separate 200% tariffs announced on French wines and champagnes. Concerns have been growing about how tariffs are being used as a political rather than an economic tool, with investors now reducing exposure to US assets, as evidenced by rising Treasury yields, a falling US dollar, and falling equity markets. After yesterday’s drop, both SPX and NDX indices have now fallen into negative territory for the year, while the VIX jumped more than 26% above the 20 mark, signalling the heightened volatility and short-term risk-off sentiment. Moreover, headwinds included a muted earnings print from streaming giant Netflix, which fell 5.07% in after-hours trading on a lower-than-expected revenue outlook, amid a bidding war for the Warner Bros. acquisition that led to an all-cash offer.
From a technical perspective, the SPX index broke below its 50-SMA on the daily chart after yesterday’s decline, indicating a continuation of a bearish short-term structure. The next potential support might come from the 100-SMA around $6,765, followed by the lows of 18th December near $6,728. The NDX index found support at the 100-day SMA near $25,035, a key level for it to break below before further weakness can be seen.
- US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index is up 0.02% to 98.60.
From a fundamental standpoint, the US Treasury bills auctioned at higher yields than previous auctions across the 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year bills, thereby is expected to support the dollar. Moreover, according to Bloomberg, in the US-Greenland issue, there are two plausible outcomes – either Trump backs down, or tariffs are imposed; both of which are supportive of the dollar, with the risk that Trump’s policymaking undermines the attractiveness of US assets by threatening local growth. Looking ahead, the 20-year bond auction is expected to garner attention.
From a technical standpoint, on the daily chart, the index is trading at the support of a symmetrical triangle, with the lows of 17th September (96.22), 23rd December (97.85), and 30th December (97.94) supporting a bullish stance on the dollar for the day. However, note that a break below this trendline signals a bearish stance.
Looking at EURUSD, the currency pair has dipped today after testing the trendline resistance connecting the highs of 17th September (1.192), 16th December (1.181) and 24th December (1.180), which supports a bearish stance for the day.
Another attractive currency pair is USDCHF; the currency pair has already bounced 0.2% after testing the support at the 0.756-0.788 range. Since mid-2025, the currency pair has tested this level 5 times and has bounced back each time.
- Crude Oil
WTI crude is trading around $59.96, up 0.45% in early Asian hours, and the tone remains constructive. Prices are firming as supply-side risks resurface, which is offering near-term support to the market.
The key driver today is an unplanned supply disruption in Kazakhstan. According to reports, Tengizchevroil (led by Chevron) has temporarily halted production at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields following fires at power generators. With the Tengiz field expected to remain shut for 7–10 days, the market is beginning to price in tighter near-term supply. At the same time, CPC loadings are constrained after drone strikes affecting the Russian terminal. Roughly four-fifths of Kazakhstan exports move through CPC, and January loadings are expected to fall to between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels a day versus the 1.7 million barrel-a-day peaks seen at times last year. Any disruption from a major producing region tends to have an outsized impact when inventories are already sensitive. Adding to this, rising geopolitical tensions linked to the Greenland crisis are lifting the geopolitical risk premium in oil. While demand headlines remain mixed globally, the market is clearly reacting to unexpected supply shocks, which often drive short-term upside moves. Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report for guidance on demand trends and inventory balances. Any indication of tighter supply or resilient demand could further reinforce the bullish momentum.
Technically, WTI Crude is currently trading near its 9 Day SMA of $59.85. Immediate reistance is at yesterday’s high of $60.71 and support at yesterday’s low of $58.93. The next resistance and support lie at $62.45 and $58.49, respectively (last week’s high and low). Brent is currently trading at $63.62, up 0.21% in today’s session. Immediate resistance lies at 64.49 (yesterday’s high) and support at $62.82 (yesterday’s low).
- Gold & Silver
Gold extended its record rally, trading at $4,841 after hitting a new ATH at $4,888 per ounce, while silver is trading just below $95.
Gold’s move reflects rising safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S.–Europe trade tensions, stress in Japanese government bonds, and ongoing U.S. dollar weakness. Central bank demand supports the overall strength of the precious metal.
In the meantime, a combination of structural supply restrictions, investment demand, and industrial sensitivity to macro trends supports silver.
Safe-haven repricing has increased amid EU discussions about using its anti-coercion tool and potential retaliatory trade actions. And investors are now watching the $5,000 gold level, as recent remarks by Macron on trade defense have increased concern.
While ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical developments at Davos will continue to increase tail risk hedging.
Gold stays bullish after breaking out of its ascending channel, with strong momentum pushing the price from the $4,667 base into the $4,895–$4,900 resistance zone. Upside targets remain $4,910–$4,920. Key support levels are $4,765 a break below this could trigger a deeper pullback.
Silver continues to consolidate beneath the $95 ceiling, where repeated rejections show limited momentum. The climb from $87 to $95 has been overlapping with declining volume, indicating exhaustion. Support comes in at $90.13 and then $86.88. Resistance remains at $98.95.
