Stocks Slip as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil; Dollar Firms, Gold Steady – Comments from Century Financial

In today’s session, markets are trading lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.72% to $6,716 and the Nasdaq declining 0.70% to $24,772, as traders react to escalating geopolitical tensions. Energy prices have surged, with WTI crude rising about 5%, reflecting growing concerns over potential supply disruptions. Geopolitical risks have intensified after reports claiming that three commercial ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. In response, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries will release a record 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to offset supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

From an intraday trading perspective, the sharp rise in oil prices and elevated geopolitical tensions suggest a bearish intraday bias for equities today as higher energy costs and risk aversion could pressure broader market sentiment. Investors will also watch the earnings results from Adobe and Lennar later today, which could provide further direction for the markets.

Technically, SPX 500 has an immediate support at $6, 710 (last week’s low), followed by its 200 Day SMA at $6,619, followed by current week’s low at $6,579 Immediate resistance is at $6,848 (100 Day SMA), followed by the 50 Day SMA at $6,888, followed by the $6,901 (last week’s high).

The second week of heightened tensions from the US/Israel and Iran conflict continues to see critical energy infrastructure get impacted. Reports suggest that two oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, prompting the nation to suspend operations at its terminals. As a precautionary measure, a key oil export terminal in Oman was evacuated, underscoring the risks to global energy supplies. Meanwhile, Bahrain reported that fuel tanks were targeted at a facility in the country. These developments overshadowed the release of the largest emergency oil reserves by the G-7 countries, causing the spike in prices seen today. Market participants are increasingly seeing this as an issue for the security of flows and rising transportation costs, rather than purely a supply disruption. A prolonged conflict can cause serious economic repercussions, with the IMF suggesting that a 10% increase in energy prices that persist a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%. Market volatility would remain on the higher side, with direction for oil being gauged largely on news flows.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart for WTI has somewhat printed a dragonfly doji yesterday, reinforcing the bullish strength that prices are seeing today. Yesterday’s low around $81.86 also coincided with the 9-day EMA level, suggesting the potential support it is providing today near the $83.38 mark. On the upside, buying momentum can continue if prices break above today’s high around the $96 mark.

On a fundamental level, the dollar remains bullish amid intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The oil markets fell from $100 to $85 as both Washington and Tehran vowed that conflict and escalation were almost at an end, only for those vows to be breached. Brent is once again trading at $95/barrel as Iran targets energy infrastructure in Oman. Moreover, the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified as a Thai, Japanese-flagged container and a UK Maritime vessel were struck. Coincidentally, these attacks happened on the same day as 32 countries decided to release 400 million barrels of Oil. This helps us understand that Iran’s biggest bargaining chip in the war is oil, and they would want to keep it elevated to choke the global economy. Vague comments from either side will artificially and temporarily suppress oil prices; however, until a resolution is reached to end this conflict, oil prices may remain elevated, supporting the dollar. The dollar remains supported because the USA is a net importer of oil, keeping its safe-haven status intact. Having said this, the dollar and oil will remain volatile and susceptible to geopolitical headlines and comments from the US or Iranian leadership.  The US CPI for Feb came in at 2.4%, as expected, leaving the markets to shrug of the impact of it on the dollar.

On a technical level, the dollar is above the 9,21,50,100 and 200-day SMA. Since Jan 27, the DXY has been respecting an ascending channel connecting the lows of January 30, February 16, and February 27, while the upper boundary connects the highs of January 26, February 6, March 3, and March 6. Based on the channel, major resistance lies at $99.76. On the downside, support potentially lies at $99.26, the close for yesterday. The MACD indicator is reflecting momentum buildup and is currently at 0.15. Moreover, the RSI is trending upwards and is currently at 66, indicating there is room to run.

Gold is entering a more stable phase, where its role has shifted from being mainly a geopolitical hedge to acting more as a buffer against broader economic shocks. Prices holding above $5,150 reflect a balance between safe-haven demand and the pressure from a stronger US dollar and higher real interest rates, which typically limit gold’s upside.

Volatility in gold has also eased. The Gold Volatility Index has fallen from its late-February spike around 40 to its current level at 30, while the VIX remains elevated near 25. This suggests markets see equities rather than gold as the main channel through which war-related risks are affecting financial markets. A similar pattern occurred after the 2022 Ukraine war, when oil-driven inflation kept interest rates high and prevented gold from maintaining a large crisis premium.

Energy markets are heavily impacting the precious metal. The IEA announced a record 400-million-barrel release of strategic oil reserves, more than double the 182-million-barrel release during the Ukraine crisis. However, markets viewed this as insufficient given disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude back above $95 and raising expectations that inflation could rise again.

Additionally, recent inflation data still looks moderate, with headline CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and core CPI at 2.5% for February, figures that predate the latest oil shock. At the same time, European officials have warned inflation could exceed 3% this year, reinforcing the risk that global monetary policy remains tight.

Central banks’ demand is showing mixed signals. Net purchases in January dropped to about 5 tons, well below the 27-ton monthly average seen in 2025. There were also concerns after Poland, last year’s largest central-bank buyer, discussed using profits linked to its gold reserves to help fund a $47 billion defence plan. However, the National Bank of Poland later clarified that this would involve unrealised profits rather than selling physical gold, and its buying program remains unchanged. Last but not least, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates, as oil volatility complicates the inflation outlook. Until the Fed starts cutting rates, gold is likely to remain supported by long-term demand from central banks and investors.

Gold is showing fading upward momentum. The key resistance area sits around $5,185–$5,210. While a 4-hour close above $5,230 would signal renewed strength and could lead to a move toward $5,300.On the downside, the $5,133 and $5,105 level is acting as the main intraday pivots If gold falls below these levels it would likely confirm a deeper pullback toward $5,060.

Silver prices have been forming lower highs which suggests buyers are still struggling to regain control with an immediate resistance at 87.50. However, for sentiment to improve, silver needs to break back above the 89.8 resistance. Support is located near 83.3 and 81.